CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATION The Hague, Netherlands (January 20, 2009)

1. CLIMATE CHANGE AND MIGRATIONThe Hague, Netherlands (January 20, 2009) PERSPECTIVE OF THE BIG CITIES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTRIES Adam O. Kimbisa Mayor of the City Dar es Salaam City Council P.O. Box 9084 Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Tel: +255 22 2121716 Fax: +255 22 2120003 Email: kimbisa2008@gmail.com

2. Structure of the Presentation • Human Development & Climate Change • The Science of Climate Change • Recent and Future Climate Trends in Southern Countries • Impacts of Climate Change • Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

3. Human Development and Climate Change • Human Development has brought about Climate Change since the European Industrial Revolution in 1860, through various social and economic activities which cause global warming • The scientific evidence indicates that Climate Change is now negatively affecting Human Development and presents very serious global risks that demand an urgent global response • Migration of people and animals is one of the potential catastrophic impacts of climate change that poses severe economic, social, and ecosystem imbalances if no timely action is taken

4. The Science of Climate Change • What is Global Warming? • The observation that the atmosphere near the earth’s surface is warming beyond its tolerance levels, i.e. more and more heat trapping gases are ejected into the atmosphere is called Global Warming • This raises the average global temperature thereby causing climate change • Without the natural greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the average temperature of the earth would be 30°Celsius lower

5. The Science of Climate Change.. cont’dGreenhouse gases effect

6. Recent & Future Climate Trends in Southern Countries • Most Southern countries including Tanzania, are ones of the most vulnerable countries to Climate Change though their contribution to the cause is minimum, mainly through; • Deforestation – burning and cutting of trees and bushes • Overgrazing – random and lack of livestock numbers control • Mining activities – disorganized and lack of proper technology • Air pollution – industries & increased use of second hand vehicles • Waste treatment – poor collection and disposal mechanisms • Unfortunately, the rich countries are burying these poor countries in red tape in denying them access to Adaptation Funds to help adjusting to Climate Change impacts

7. Recent Climate Trends in Tanzania 1974 2007 • Warmer temperatures have caused even melting of ice at the peak of Mt. Kilimanjaro • Some areas receiving less, others same rainfall • Altered and inconsistent rainy seasons • More climatic extremes – droughts, floods

8. Future Climate Trends in Southern Countries • Weather simulations suggest most Southern countries including Tanzania will generally become drier • Long-term weather forecasts suggest most areas will see increases in variability of rainfall - intense storms, droughts and floods - due to GHG effect • The resulting warmer temperatures will lead into increased water use by vegetation, which won’t be available due to drought - hence increased desertification • Displacement and Migration of people in their own countries or to other countries leading to internal unrest, environmental degradation and poverty due to scramble for the limited basic resources and services such as land, water, food, medicals, etc.

9. Impacts of Climate Change Southern Countries/Tanzania Experience • Migration of people from rural areas to urban areas • for ecological reasons – drought in upcountry areas • for economical reasons – seeking alternative means of survival • Overwhelming of City authority to carry the influx • Migration of livestock in search of greener pastures

10. Impacts of Climate Change ..cont’dSouthern Countries/Tanzania Experience • Rising sea levels leading to submergence of some islands, e.g. Maziwe Island in Pangani district • Migration and Disruption of wildlife & marine ecosystems leading to extinction of other species as a result of prolonged droughts, e.g. hippos, fish.

11. Impacts of Climate Change ..cont’dSouthern Countries/Tanzania Experience • Increased crop and livestock pests and diseases • Land degradation due to livestock and wildlife migration concentrations in search for food and water • Altered vegetation on highlands and easy spread of uncontrolled fires due dry vegetation • Salt water intrusion and stronger storms/waves leading to erosion of coastal areas

12. Impacts of Climate Change ..cont’dSouthern Countries/Tanzania Experience • Frequent Floods • Displacement of people and loss of properties • Natural drainage systems in the city of Dar es Salaam overwhelmed, need well designed drainage system • Curtailing many economic activities and lowered Tanzania’s GDP growth from 7% to 6% in 2006 • Reduced water supply • Rationing of water for households/industrial needs due to scarcity

13. Impacts of Climate Change..cont’dSouthern Countries/Tanzania Experience • Frequent and prolonged droughts leading to; • Lowest water level and temporary shut down of the major dams in the past few years, which are main source of electric power in the country • Hydro-electric power crises, e.g. the 2006/2007 power blackout in Tanzania • Decline in agricultural crop yields • Reduced income and increased poverty levels • Increase of Climate-related diseases, e.g. Malaria • With annual incidence rate of 400-500 per every 1000 people • Occurrence in areas like Lushoto & Njombe where it wasn’t common before

14. Impacts of Climate Change..cont’dSouthern Countries/Tanzania Experience • Destruction of infrastructure • e.g. the 2006 floods in most parts of Tanzania which devastated infrastructure including tarmac roads, railway lines & bridges • Steady increase in temperature • due to greenhouse gas emissions • 0.2 degrees Celsius increase recorded in Tanzania for the past 30 years • Forced use of thermal-electric power sources • leading to environmental pollution and budgets disruption

15. Mitigation and Adaptation Measures • Tackling Climate Change and the resulting Migration impacts require action on two fronts: • First, Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions • Developed & Developing countries programs cooperation • Reduction of CO2 emission • Shift to bio-energy • Carbon trading - absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere • Second, Adaptation • Most vulnerable developing nations need assistance in improving capacity to adapt and build defence mechanisms • Integration of adaptation measures into all aspects of policy development and provisions for Climate uncertainties

16. Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ..cont’d Which Options do we have to take against Global Warming? - Not much choice! A – Business as usual B – Assumes a shift to lower-carbon fuels C – Assumes a shift towards renewable energy resources D – Assumes a shift towards renewable energy resources and nuclear energy Estimates of future average global temperature rise due to the Greenhouse Effect

17. Mitigation and Adaptation Measures Southern Countries / Tanzania Approach • Cultivating drought-resistant crops in arid and semi-arid areas to respond to possible food shortages due to negative climate changes, and so minimize Migration of people from the areas • Shallow and deep wells drilling programs and projects to respond to the changing hydrological regimes – Migration in search for water reduced • Construction of dams for human and livestock water supply to ensure water availability and sustainability as well as support to sustainable fisheries and alternative livelihood – Migration of pastoralists, fishermen, irrigation farmers reduced

18. Mitigation and Adaptation Measures Southern Countries/Tanzania Approach ..cont’d • Construction of ocean currents protection walls and relocation of some vulnerable communities along sea shores and low-lying areas – to prevent potential migrations during rising sea levels and flood disasters • The use of natural gas for electricity production to replace thermal electric generation and hydroelectricity which is climate change dependent – to guarantee and ensure sustainability of peoples’ economic activities • Preparation to establish Bus Rapid Transit System in the city of Dar es Salaam to minimize congestion and subsequent air pollution from vehicles • Improving counter-measures against devastating events on livelihoods e.g. early warning systems, evacuation, etc.

19. Mitigation and Adaptation Measures Already operational in Dar es Salaam • Use of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to reduce methane equivalent in air & as source of energy/power generation, e.g. the Mtoni CDM project under Dar es Salaam City Council • Waste to Energy project: Technical closure of the former Mtoni Dumpsite and development into a CDM project • The dump gas is currently being flared • Part of the gas will be utilized to generate electricity that will be connected to the national grid • Revenue generating project to Dar es Salaam City Council to finance other poverty alleviation efforts to the city citizens

20. Mitigation and Adaptation Measures Already operational inDar es Salaam ..cont’d

21. Mitigation and Adaptation Measures Under study inDar es Salaam • High grade composting • Diversion of organic waste from landfill (methane reduction) • New market opportunity for organic compost as alternative to chemical fertilizers whose cost is on the increase • Benefits also include: job creation, revenue from sale of compost and CDM, organic soil replenishment • Issues to consider: land, segregating market waste, collection and transportation and developing a Project Design Document for CDM

22. Proposed Adaptation Measures Developed & Developing Countries cooperation • QUICK WINS for Greenhouse Gases emission reductions • Energy Efficiency • Renewable Energy Technologies • Landfill gas management & composting

23. Proposed Adaptation MeasuresDeveloped & Developing Countries cooperation ..cont’d • Environmental-friendly technology research and development • Forums for exchange of experience and knowledge among cities with similar characteristics and challenges, e.g. the Dar-Dakar-Durban partnership under the PLUSNetwork International • Support to poor countries along the coast in beaches protection e.g. planting of mangrove trees to diffuse tropical-storm waves • Provide special attention & additional financial support to poor countries in their adaptation initiative out of existing aid commitments

24. Proposed Adaptation Measures Developed & Developing Countries cooperation..cont’d • Cities administrations need to plan and budget around climate uncertainty. Improve basic infrastructure such as hospitals, water reservoirs, and roads, must be climate-proofed. All these require more funding. • The International Community needs to give impetus to Climate talks with the World’s top greenhouse gases emitter nations to get them more involved in combating global warming by reducing their emissions and contributing to Adaptation Funds significantly. • Need to consider Climate Migration as “forced” migration in the International Legal Human Rights Framework for nations to reduce deterrent measures to the migrants, instead apply positive measures and necessary humanitarian aids where possible.

25. End of Presentation Thank You For Your Attention