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What the Weather Will Bring or Agricultural Weather in Wisconsin

What the Weather Will Bring or Agricultural Weather in Wisconsin. Wisconsin Agri-Service Association 9 th Annual Trade Show 30 January 2003 Lake Delton, WI Prof. John A. Young & E. J. Hopkins Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin-Madison. Our Road Map.

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What the Weather Will Bring or Agricultural Weather in Wisconsin

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  1. What the Weather Will Bringor Agricultural Weather in Wisconsin Wisconsin Agri-Service Association 9th Annual Trade Show 30 January 2003 Lake Delton, WI Prof. John A. Young & E. J. Hopkins Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin-Madison

  2. Our Road Map • Introduction • What we have: Current Maps • What we think: Analysis & Forecasts • Who and Where we are

  3. Current Drought Conditions from National Drought Mitigation Center

  4. U.S. Drought Monitor MapfromNational Drought Mitigation Center • Considers: • Agricultural, Hydrological Drought • Fire Danger • Depends Upon: • Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) • CPC Soil Moisture Model • USGS Weekly Streamflow • Percent of Normal Precipitation • Standardized Precipitation Index • Satellite Vegetation Health Index

  5. Drought Conditions: Since Early November 2002from National Drought Mitigation Center

  6. December Precipitation From Climate Prediction Center

  7. Current Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

  8. Current Crop Moisture Index

  9. Precipitation Needed to Bring PDSI to -0.5

  10. Recent Soil Moisture from CPC

  11. Recent Soil Moisture from CPC

  12. Current 30 Day Precipitation DepartureFrom Midwestern Regional Climate Center

  13. Current Soil Moisture DepartureFrom Midwestern Regional Climate Center

  14. Recent Streamflow (from USGS)

  15. Standardized Precipitation Index for Nov-Dec 2002 (from NCDC)

  16. History of Statewide PDSIFrom National Climate Data Center Wet Wet Wet Wet Drought Drought Drought Drought Drought Drought

  17. History of Wisconsin Statewide Precipitation From Moran & Hopkins, 2002 Wet Wet Wet Dry Dry Dry Dry Dry Dry

  18. Monitoring Current Sea Surface Temperatures From Climate Prediction Center

  19. Jet Stream during Dec. 2002

  20. El Niño Winter Temperature Impact

  21. El Niño Winter Temperature Impact

  22. From National Climate Data Center (NCDC)based on 108 yrs. (1895-2002)

  23. El Niño Spring Precipitation Impact

  24. El Niño Spring Precipitation Impact

  25. Dec. 2002 Precipitation RanksFrom National Climate Data Center (NCDC)based on 108 yrs. (1895-2002)

  26. Saturday’s Forecast of PDSIfrom Climate Prediction Center

  27. CPC Soil Moisture Forecastat end of Next Week

  28. CPC Soil Moisture Forecastat end of Next 2 Weeks

  29. LATE WINTER FORECASTFrom NOAA Climate Prediction Center

  30. THREE MONTH DROUGHT FORECASTFrom NOAA Climate Prediction Center

  31. John A. Young Director Lyle Anderson Data Manager Traci Westphal Asst. Climatologist Ed Hopkins Consultant UW-Madison Partner: Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences THE  WISCONSINSTATE CLIMATOLOGY  OFFICEyour resource for weather and climate information WHO WE ARE

  32. WHERE WE ARE 1225 W. Dayton St., Madison

  33. Climatological Divisions for Wisconsin (NCDC)

  34. Contact • John A. YoungDept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic SciencesUW-Madison1225 W. Dayton608/262-2828jayoung@facstaff.wisc.edu • Edward J. Hopkins hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu

  35. Useful Links • State Climatology Office http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/ • Midwestern Regional Climate Centerhttp://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/ • Climate Prediction Center (NWS)http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ • National Climate Data Center (NCDC)http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html • Drought Monitorhttp://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html • Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (USDA & NOAA)http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/ • NOAA Drought Information Centerhttp://www.drought.noaa.gov/

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