ASIA. INDIA. Regional Energy Security Strategy. Basic Facts and Policy Implications The South Asian countries are very much inefficient in energy use.
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1. One trend: Soon No 1
2. Two Challenges:
3. Three Strategies
Challenge 1: heavy reliance on coal 69%, the US; double 1,742 Traditional pollution: 16/20, 5.8%; Climate change: No 1 CO2 emitter Energy efficiency: cut 20% energy intensity Decarbonize: Nuclear 8GW-70GW Hydro 170 GW to 300GW; Wind 15GW to 120 GW; Solar No 1
Challenge 2: oil import quadruple from 3.5mb/d to 13.1mb/d by 2030Dependence rate 52% to 80% 70m-350m auto, solution public transportation and electric car
Diversification : 60% from Middle East, by 2030Africa: Wen $100 billion, Russia & Kazakhstan CIC investing, Latin America, Investment help increase production
Energy demand in India will be about 4.36per cent and demand for electricity will grow by about 8per cent per annum till 2020.
Geo- Strategic Importance
Current Situation – likely to Worsen
In Pakistan, fuel based primary energy demand will increase at a rate of 3.72per cent and demand for electricity will grow by 8per cent per annum till 2020.
The by 2030MaldivesIn Maldives, fuel based primary energy demand will increase at rate of 5.84per cent and demand for electricity will grow at a rate of 11.3per cent
China will become No 1 soon after 2010
India currently No 5, will become No 3 by 2030
China’s and India’s net oil imports are expected to grow three times more than current USA and Japan imports
-> Major impact on world oil supply and prices
Most energy currently generated from fossil fuels, particularly coal