Voting
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Voting. The Election of 2008 and 2010. Office Hours. When Today- 11-2 Monday 10-2 And by appointment Doyle 226B. Learning Outcomes I. Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

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Voting

Voting

The Election of 2008 and 2010


Office hours

Office Hours

  • When

    • Today- 11-2

    • Monday 10-2

    • And by appointment

  • Doyle 226B


Learning outcomes i

Learning Outcomes I

  • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

  • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice

  • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process


Readings

Readings

  • Exam 1 Study Guide

  • Exam 1 is Feb 12th


The revised michigan model

The Revised Michigan Model


What it looks like

What it Looks Like


Social characteristics

Social Characteristics

  • Many cross-cutting factors

  • Help shape our Party ID

  • Are at the top of the funnel


Party id

A Long Term Factor

Party ID


Partisanship

Partisanship

  • Long Term Factor

  • Best Predictor of Voting

  • Influences other short-term factors


2008 vote by party id

2008 Vote by Party ID


Ideology doesn t rock

Ideology Doesn’t Rock


What about independents

What about Independents

  • Pure Independents vs. Leaners

  • Independents go for Obama


Ses and group factors

A Long Term Factor

SES and Group Factors


Group voting

Group Voting

  • What makes a group important?

  • The Democrats think more in group terms


Four groups that made a difference in 2008

Four Groups that Made a difference in 2008

  • African Americans

  • Latinos

  • Young Voters

  • Highly educated voters


Race and ethnicity

Race and ethnicity


African american vote in 2008

African American vote in 2008

  • Compared to 2004

    • Higher Turnout

    • More Democratic

  • Why African Americans Were Important


Hispanic voters

Hispanic Voters

  • The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity

  • Increasingly Democratic since 2000

  • Key in CO, FL, NM


Race and vote in 2008

Race and Vote in 2008


Voting

A Long Term Factor

Age


Young voters in 2008

Young Voters in 2008

  • 2-1 For Obama

  • Why

  • What about other Age Groups


Age and vote 2008

Age and Vote 2008


Education

SES Long Term Factor

education


Education in 2008

Education in 2008

  • A curvilinear relationship

  • Obama Does well with both ends of the education spectrum


Education and vote

Education and Vote


Religion

Religion


Identification vs behavior

Identification vs. Behavior

  • Being a member of a Religion is not an accurate predictor of vote choice

  • Religious activity is a much better predictor


Church attendance and vote

Church Attendance and Vote


Who you are

Who you are

  • Jewish voters

  • Catholics


Vote by religion 2008

Vote By Religion- 2008


Gender

Gender


Gender and marriage

Gender and Marriage

  • The Gender Gap

  • Why?


Gender in 2008

Gender in 2008


Marriage

Marriage

  • Married People vote Republican

  • Singles vote Democratic


Marital status

Marital Status


Decline of security moms

Decline of Security Moms


Short term factors

Short Term Factors

Issues, Candidates & Image


Candidate evaluations vs issues

Candidate Evaluations vs. Issues


Issues

Short Term Factor 1

Issues


Issue voting is difficult

Issue voting is difficult

  • We don’t trust or understand policy

  • Conditions for issue voting


The reality of issue voting

The Reality of Issue Voting

  • We are clueless

  • Projection

  • Adoption

  • Too many issues


Most important issues

Most Important Issues


Economic issues

The Big One

Economic issues


The economy

The Economy

  • The events of 9/14


Retrospective analysis

Retrospective Analysis

  • Looking back at the economy

  • Easier to do if there is an incumbent


Prospective analysis

Prospective Analysis


Economics

Economics


Economics1

Economics


Economics2

Economics


Other issues in 2008

Other issues in 2008


The war in iraq

The War in Iraq

  • No longer the salient Issue of the election

  • Good news from Iraq did not change people’s minds

  • Obama could claim opposition from day 1


Voting

Iraq


Health care

Health Care

  • Not as important as you might think (9% most important problem)


Energy policy

Energy Policy

  • One of the reasons McCain goes with Palin

  • Never panned out as an issue

  • Cheap oil throughout the fall


Drilling

Drilling


Terrorism

Terrorism


Immigration

Immigration

  • No One cared

  • Neither candidate had anything to gain by raising the issue


Candidate evaluations

Short Term Factor

Candidate Evaluations


Candidate image

Candidate Image

  • Try to create your own

  • Use issues to your advantage

  • Don’t Let the Media create one for you


Hope and change

Hope and Change

  • A message that worked

  • It meant everything and nothing at the same time


Hope as a message

Hope as a message


Change

Change


Mccain old and out of touch

McCain- Old and Out of Touch


Party image

Party image


Party image1

Party Image

  • Impacts our views of the candidate

  • Very important for prospective voting

  • McCain has a terrible party image


The republican brand

The Republican Brand


The third term

The Third Term


Mccain vs bush

McCain Vs. Bush

  • In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush

  • In reality no way to distance himself from Bush


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