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Voting. The Election of 2008 and 2010. Office Hours. When Today- 11-2 Monday 10-2 And by appointment Doyle 226B. Learning Outcomes I. Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

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Voting

The Election of 2008 and 2010


Office Hours

  • When

    • Today- 11-2

    • Monday 10-2

    • And by appointment

  • Doyle 226B


Learning Outcomes I

  • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior.

  • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice

  • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process


Readings

  • Exam 1 Study Guide

  • Exam 1 is Feb 12th


The Revised Michigan Model


What it Looks Like


Social Characteristics

  • Many cross-cutting factors

  • Help shape our Party ID

  • Are at the top of the funnel


A Long Term Factor

Party ID


Partisanship

  • Long Term Factor

  • Best Predictor of Voting

  • Influences other short-term factors


2008 Vote by Party ID


Ideology Doesn’t Rock


What about Independents

  • Pure Independents vs. Leaners

  • Independents go for Obama


A Long Term Factor

SES and Group Factors


Group Voting

  • What makes a group important?

  • The Democrats think more in group terms


Four Groups that Made a difference in 2008

  • African Americans

  • Latinos

  • Young Voters

  • Highly educated voters


Race and ethnicity


African American vote in 2008

  • Compared to 2004

    • Higher Turnout

    • More Democratic

  • Why African Americans Were Important


Hispanic Voters

  • The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity

  • Increasingly Democratic since 2000

  • Key in CO, FL, NM


Race and Vote in 2008


A Long Term Factor

Age


Young Voters in 2008

  • 2-1 For Obama

  • Why

  • What about other Age Groups


Age and Vote 2008


SES Long Term Factor

education


Education in 2008

  • A curvilinear relationship

  • Obama Does well with both ends of the education spectrum


Education and Vote


Religion


Identification vs. Behavior

  • Being a member of a Religion is not an accurate predictor of vote choice

  • Religious activity is a much better predictor


Church Attendance and Vote


Who you are

  • Jewish voters

  • Catholics


Vote By Religion- 2008


Gender


Gender and Marriage

  • The Gender Gap

  • Why?


Gender in 2008


Marriage

  • Married People vote Republican

  • Singles vote Democratic


Marital Status


Decline of Security Moms


Short Term Factors

Issues, Candidates & Image


Candidate Evaluations vs. Issues


Short Term Factor 1

Issues


Issue voting is difficult

  • We don’t trust or understand policy

  • Conditions for issue voting


The Reality of Issue Voting

  • We are clueless

  • Projection

  • Adoption

  • Too many issues


Most Important Issues


The Big One

Economic issues


The Economy

  • The events of 9/14


Retrospective Analysis

  • Looking back at the economy

  • Easier to do if there is an incumbent


Prospective Analysis


Economics


Economics


Economics


Other issues in 2008


The War in Iraq

  • No longer the salient Issue of the election

  • Good news from Iraq did not change people’s minds

  • Obama could claim opposition from day 1


Iraq


Health Care

  • Not as important as you might think (9% most important problem)


Energy Policy

  • One of the reasons McCain goes with Palin

  • Never panned out as an issue

  • Cheap oil throughout the fall


Drilling


Terrorism


Immigration

  • No One cared

  • Neither candidate had anything to gain by raising the issue


Short Term Factor

Candidate Evaluations


Candidate Image

  • Try to create your own

  • Use issues to your advantage

  • Don’t Let the Media create one for you


Hope and Change

  • A message that worked

  • It meant everything and nothing at the same time


Hope as a message


Change


McCain- Old and Out of Touch


Party image


Party Image

  • Impacts our views of the candidate

  • Very important for prospective voting

  • McCain has a terrible party image


The Republican Brand


The Third Term


McCain Vs. Bush

  • In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush

  • In reality no way to distance himself from Bush


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