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Precipitation in Norway Idar Barstad Idar.Barstad @uni.no Uni Research – ( UniComputing / Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research). Motivation: Orographic precipitation and climate change Results from a small-scaled field campaign. Nesttun, 14th September 2005.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Precipitation in Norway

Idar Barstad

[email protected] Research – (UniComputing / Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research)

slide2
Motivation:

Orographic precipitation and climate change

Results from a small-scaled field campaign

slide4

Return period /-amount for Bergen (daily data)

x

Return value (mm/day)

2 months later

1

100

1000

Return period (years)

slide5

14th Nov 2005

NERSC/NASA

pressure patterns leading up to extreme precipitation
Pressure patterns leading up to extreme precipitation

Cluster #

-2 days

Extreme day

2

-2 days

Extreme day

3

(Barstad and Sorteberg, 2012, in prep.)

mean precipitation norway whole year

ARPEGE (HADCM3)

ARPEGE (GFDL)

Mean precipitation Norway – whole year

Sorteberg & Kvamstø, 2008

the study
The study

Increasing demand of products from numerical models of high resolution

Q: Can models deliver what we ask for?

experimental set up
Experimental set-up

Collect precipitation using rain gauges (“tipping” buckets)

For 12 weeks 2006 across an island at the west coast of Norway

Run numerical model

- WRFV3.3, 9-3-1 km, MYJ, Thompson MP

- spectral nudging (>1000km), 45-15-5 sec time step

Material from a submitted paper (Barstad, 2012 ; QJRMS)

domain
Domain

9-3-1 km domain

~500 m peaks

10 km

Contours every 50 m

total precip
Total precip

3 km frontal

3 km convective

Vertically int.

water vapor

rose

slide13

2

9

18

10

8

1

mod/obs

precip at high percentiles
Precip at high percentiles

(10min accumulation)

OBS

mod

time step prec
Time-step prec

OBS

1 km

3 km

(0.2 mm per tip)

time step prec1
Time-step prec

OBS

1 km

3 km

zoom in on the convection
Zoom in on the convection

It doesn’t seem to be as

well defined and organized

as suggested by the model

extreme precipitation w norway
Extreme precipitation – w Norway

A1B scenario – downscaling

using 12 GCM models

Caroletti and Barstad (2009)

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