Opportunities and Challenges in Practical Spatial Economic Modelling

1. Opportunities and Challenges in Practical Spatial Economic Modelling Recent Experience With the PECAS Framework JD Hunt Professor of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Canada International Chair Professor, Wuhan University of Technology, China President, HBA Specto Incorporated, Canada Keynote Address, AITPM Conference Adelaide SA, Australia 1 August 2019

2. outline • Description of PECAS • Experience with PECAS Examples of Applications in Practice • Conclusions

3. Pecas Name roduction xchange onsumption llocation ystem P E C A S

4. Pe system components and treatment of time

5. Activity Put InPutOutPut Technology Inventory Pe system components and treatment of time

6. Activity Put InPutOutPut Technology Inventory Pe system components and treatment of time

7. Activity Put InPutOutPut Technology Inventory Pe system components and treatment of time

8. Activity Put InPutOutPut Technology Inventory Pe system components and treatment of time

9. Pecas basic definitions • Activities • Puts • Technologies • Inventories

10. Pecas basic definitions • Activities: Make Decisions – Motivations establish Behaviour • Puts Produce outPuts and Consume inPuts • Technologies Employ Technologies • Inventories Have Inventories of Puts Types of Activities: Households Corporations Unincorporated Businesses NonProfits Government Importers and Exporters and Developers

11. Pecas basic definitions • Activities Produced, Exchanged, Consumed • Puts: Owned, Bought, Sold, Rented, Priced per Unit • Technologies Transported (unless “Untransportable”) • Inventories Types of Puts: Raw Materials Commodities Goods, Processed and Manufactured Goods, Non-Durable and Durable Services, Personal and Business Capital, Machinery and Equipment, Financial Building Space Labour Emissions, Other ‘Pollution’ Externalities

12. Pecas basic definitions • Activities Alternative Modes of Production • Puts Consumed Puts per Unit Produced Puts • Technologies: Available Range Exogenously Specified • Inventories Types of Technologies: Industrial Processes Business Practices Lifestyles

13. Pecas basic definitions • Activities Quantities of Puts Owned, Rented, Held by Activities • Puts Increase by Production, Purchase, InRental • Technologies Decrease by Consumption, Depreciation Selling, OutRental • Inventories: Rents Payments go fromInRenter (leasee) to OutRenter (leasor) Types of Inventories: Owned = Kept + OutRental Held = Kept + InRental - OutRental

14. Treatment of Land and Locations

15. Treatment of Land and Locations

16. System Components and Treatment of Time economic changes; demographic changes system-wide economic / demographic conditions system-wide economic / demographic conditions development activity consumer surplus space development activity totals space quantities space prices activity allocations activity allocations transport generalised costs land use patterns transport system transport system transport supply changes year t year t+1

17. t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 years

18. t t+1 t+2 t+3 t+4 years

19. economic changes; demographic changes system-wide economic / demographic conditions system-wide economic / demographic conditions development activity consumer surplus space development activity totals space quantities space prices activity allocations activity allocations transport generalised costs land use patterns transport system transport system transport supply changes year t year t+1

20. economic changes; demographic changes system-wide economic / demographic conditions system-wide economic / demographic conditions development activity consumer surplus space development activity totals space quantities space prices activity allocations activity allocations transport generalised costs land use patterns transport system transport system transport supply changes year t year t+1

21. economic changes; demographic changes system-wide economic / demographic conditions system-wide economic / demographic conditions development activity consumer surplus space development activity totals space quantities space prices activity allocations activity allocations transport generalised costs land use patterns transport system transport system transport supply changes year t year t+1

22. Quantity of put produced or consumed under technology option p Additional utility associated with location l for activity a Pecas AA module: choice model utility function • Locationl ; location of residence or business establishment • Technology option or lifestylep ; described by a set of technical coefficients and a corresponding put list for how much of each put cpn is produced (or consumed, if apn negative) per unit of activity a • Exchange locationen ; for each put exchanged Utility of exchanging and shipping one unit of put between l and e Additional utility associated with technology option p

23. PECAS AA Choice Model Location Choice location alternatives; building with local and neighbourhood attributes Technology Choice technology options; vectors of the make and use of items, production processes for establishments and lifestyles for households Buying and Selling Exchange Choice exchange locations; where the seller stops and the buyer starts paying for transport

24. PECAS AA Spatial Representation

25. PECAS AA Make-Use Representation

26. economic changes; demographic changes system-wide economic / demographic conditions system-wide economic / demographic conditions development activity consumer surplus space development activity totals space quantities space prices activity allocations activity allocations transport generalised costs land use patterns transport system transport system transport supply changes year t year t+1

27. Pecas SD module: choice model utility function Additional Rent less development costs per unit land Space quantity (building size) • Future space type h ; development type • Future space quantityj ; building space area) • On parcel p of size l currently containing quantity b of space type v • Zoning restricts j to range Land quantity (parcel size)

28. PECAS SD Choice Model Type Choice new type no change change quantity renovate demolish derelict different types Quantity Choice min max quantities min max quantities

29. no change more the same mid density residential commercial industrial derelict quantity PECAS SD Simulation parcel-by-parcel microsimulation

30. Design Diagram:

31. Puts Natural Resources Labour Services Space Goods Capital Activities as Producers Activities as Consumers Transport Flows

32. Puts Natural Resources Labour Services Space Goods Capital Space Development Module Activities as Producers Activity Allocation Module Activities as Consumers Transport Flows Transport Model

33. Component 1 Space Development Component 7 Production and Consumption of Puts by Non-Household Activities Component 8 Imports and Exports of Puts Component 2 Production of Labor by Households Component 3 Use of Space by Non-Household Activities Component 9 Financial Flows Component 6 Consumption of Puts and Labor by Households Component 4 Use of Labor by Non-Household Activities Component 5 Use of Space by Households Transport Model

34. Baltimore, USA

35. California

36. Mumbai

37. experience with pecas • selected examples • practical application

38. San Diego, USA

39. San Diego, USA

40. relax caps restrictions retain caps restrictions 2030

41. Daily Vehicles Miles Travelled San Diego PECAS

42. Atlanta, USA “Atlanta Skyline” by Jess Moss; source: https://plus.google.com/+JessMossTravel

43. Atlanta, USA

44. Households: With Projects – Without Projects 2040 Atlanta PECAS

46. Los Angeles, USA

47. Los Angeles, USA Los Angeles PECAS

48. Emp With Gas Tax – Without Gas Tax (S2 - S1) • Household and employment shift 2020 Los Angeles PECAS

49. With Gas Tax – Without Gas Tax (S2 - S1) • Rent change 2020 • Rent change Los Angeles PECAS

50. With Gas Tax – Without Gas Tax (S2 - S1) • Utility Changes per household Dollars Los Angeles PECAS