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Thoughts on the Next Force Planning Construct. Overview. Force planning constructs since the end of the Cold War The Quadrennial Defense Review: what’s next? Opportunity to create new Service visions. What is a Force Planning Construct?

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Thoughts on the next force planning construct

Thoughts on the

Next Force Planning Construct


Overview

Overview

  • Force planning constructs since the end of the Cold War

  • The Quadrennial Defense Review: what’s next?

  • Opportunity to create new Service visions

  • What is a Force Planning Construct?

  • Guidance on the size (capacity) and shape (mix of capabilities) of U.S. Armed Forces needed for a range of planning scenarios

    • Includes assumptions on the nature of the operating environment, frequency and concurrency of contingency operations, steady-state and surge requirements, force availability, etc.


1993 bottom up review bur force structure building block approach

1993 Bottom-Up Review (BUR)Force Structure Building-Block Approach

POST-CONFLICT PERIOD

ENGAGED IN ONE MRC

SHIFTING TO TWO MRCS

ENGAGED IN SECOND MRC

SITUATION:

PEACETIME

WIN

MRC #2

MRC #2

WIN

MRC #1

MRC #1

RESERVE FORCES

OVERSEAS PRESENCE

STABILITY OPS

POST-CONFLICT

STABILITY OPS

RESERVE FORCES

PEACEKEEPING

RESERVE FORCES

DEMOCRACY

OVERSEAS PRES.

OVERSEAS PRES.

OVERSEAS PRES.

PEACEKEEPING

DEMOCRACY

PEACEKEEPING

FORCES ENGAGED

HA/DR

OVERSEAS PRES.

HA/DR

HA/DR

STRAT LIFT

STRAT LIFT

STRAT LIFT

STRAT LIFT

STRAT LIFT

NUKE DETER.

NUKE DETER.

NUKE DETER.

NUKE DETER.

NUKE DETER.

ACTIVE FORCES

STRAT LIFT

ACTIVE FORCES

STRAT LIFT

ACTIVE FORCES

RESERVE FORCES

RESERVE FORCES

ACTIVE FORCES

ACTIVE FORCES

FORCES AVAILABLE

RESERVE FORCES

RESERVE FORCES

RESERVE FORCES

  • Assumed a force that was properly sized for 2 major regional contingencies (MRCs) could also support smaller-scale conventional operations (“lesser included cases”)


1997 qdr construct bottom up review light

1997 QDR Construct“Bottom-Up Review Light”

  • Major QDR Objectives

    • Preserve the Bottom-Up Review force planning approach, create a rationale for cuts to force structure and personnel

    • Address requirements to support multiple, concurrent smaller-scale contingencies

    • Continue capability enhancements to support operations to halt invasions (e.g., improved surveillance and precision strike)

Most significant cuts


2001 qdr construct 1 4 2 1

2001 QDR Construct“1-4-2-1”

  • Major Objectives

    • Size for homeland defenseand smaller-scale contingencies

    • Accept risk in the second of 2 major theater wars

    • Deter forward to prevent conflicts, rather than respond to crises

    • Shift from optimizing for conflicts on the Korean and Arabian Peninsulas to a broader range of scenarios

1-4-2-1

1

  • Defend the United States;

  • Deter aggression and coercion forward in critical regions;

4

  • Swiftly defeat aggression in overlapping major conflicts while preserving the option for decisive victory in one of those conflicts – including the possibility of regime change or occupation; and

2

  • Conduct a limited number of smaller-scale contingency operations

1


2006 qdr refined wartime force planning construct

2006 QDR Refined Wartime Force Planning Construct

“Michelin Man”

  • Support wartime requirements

  • Change the capabilities mix, forces sized about right

  • Prioritize capabilities for 4 focus areas

  • Build partner capacity

Active Partnering & Tailored Shaping

Homeland Defense

Global Deterrence

Consequence Management

Interdiction

Active Partnering & Tailored Shaping

Stability Operations

War on Terror

Irregular Warfare

Train & Equip

Transnational Deterrence

Information

Operations

Foreign Internal Defense

Counterinsurgency

Active Partnering & Tailored Shaping

Information

Operations

Conventional Campaign(s)

Stability Ops

Reconstruction

Consequence Mgmt.

Forward

Presence

Major Combat Operations

WMD Elimination

Regional Deterrence


2010 qdr force planning sizing construct

2010 QDR Force Planning / Sizing Construct

  • Multiple scenario cases for near-term (next 5 to 7 years) and mid- to long-term (years 7 to 20) planning

  • Preserved 2 war planning requirement, prioritized capabilities that can rapidly “swing” between theaters

  • Project power in anti-access/area-denial environments

Mid- to Long-Term

Scenario Case

Scenario Case

Scenario Case

or

or


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

2011-2012 Comprehensive

Strategic Review Update

  • No longer size for large-scale, long-duration stability operations

  • Asia-Pacific rebalancing

  • Another nuclear forces cut may be possible

Surge (Illustrative)

Steady-State

  • Support continuing counter-terrorism operations

  • Sustain other “steady-state” mission demands

  • Maintaining a stabilizing global presence

  • Nuclear deterrence

  • Homeland defense, defense support to civil authorities

  • Lesser contingencies


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

Visualizing Steady-State and

Surge Demand over Time

STEADY-STATE

OPTEMPO

SURGE

OPERATIONS

PHASE 4/5

OPERATIONS

Theater #2

Deny Objectives / Impose Unacceptable Costs on Opportunistic Aggressor

Theater #1

Combined Arms Campaign to Defeat Aggression

COCOM Force Requirements

Defeat

Homeland Defense

Support to Civil Authorities / Consequence Management

Presence

Steady State: Nuclear Deterrence, Support to Counter-Terrorism Operations

Air Force Rotation Goal

Active 1:3 (1:4 desired)

Rotation Policy

Reserve 1:5 (AF 1:10 volunteerism)

Component

Full Mobilization

No force rotation

Rotation Policy

1:2 Active

1:5 Reserve


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

Different Elements of the Force are

Sized to Support Different Requirements

  • Rotational

  • Post-surge rotational

  • Examples

  • Examples

  • Air superiority fighters, bombers

  • Low-density, high-demand

  • Strategic mobility

  • Majority of the fighter force

  • Theater mobility


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

What’s Next?


One approach

One Approach

Increase timing between major warfights

Change surge scenarios to enable force structure/end strength cuts

(e.g., adopt new operational concepts that emphasize global surveillance and strike, cyber, SOF, “swing” forces, undersea warfare, etc. vice deploying forces to engage in major ground operations)

Decrease steady-state and long-term rotational requirements

In other words, “do less with less”


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

Impact?

  • These changes could have profound implications for the Air Force’s AC/RC mix

  • Post Surge Rotation

1:2 Active

1:5 Reserve


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

Another Approach: An FPC That Better

Focuses the Services’ Unique Capabilities

Predominately Air and Naval Capabilities

Predominately Ground and Expeditionary Capabilities

  • Expeditionary Crisis Responses

  • Building Partner Capacity

  • Sustained Counter-Terrorism Operations

  • AirSea Battle in the Western Pacific

  • Global Swing Forces

  • Hybrid Major Contingency

  • WMD Elimination Operations

  • Joint Theater Entry Operations

Capability Requirements

Expeditionary Combat Support, Force Enablers, Force Generation Capabilities, etc.

Range of Defense Planning Scenarios


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

Create New Service Strategic Concepts

Hand-in-Hand with the Next FPC

“The fundamental element of a military service is its purpose or role in implementing military policy … the strategic concept of the service…a description of how, when, and where the military service expects to protect the nation against some threat to its security.”

“Changes in the principal threats to the security of any given nation … must be met by shifts in national policy and corresponding changes in service strategic concepts”

— Dr. Samuel P. Huntington, 1954

  • Operational domains that are increasingly contested

  • Asia-Pacific rebalancing

  • Growing need for systems that are survivable, persistent, multi-mission capable, and can operate from access-insensitive areas

  • New visions should consider:


Emerging threats and new scenarios should drive a different force mix

Emerging Threats and New Scenarios Should Drive a Different Force Mix

Future Gulf?

Future Pacific?

UK Bases

Aviano AB

2,355 nm

22x greater than Iraq’s landmass

1,850 nm

Denied Areas

Taiwan Strait

Tehran

Andersen AFB

1,500 nm

Denied Areas

1,000 nm

Key Considerations

Denied Areas

Sea Base

  • Increased depth of the battlespace

  • Close-in bases at risk

  • Average range to possible target areas > 1,200 nautical miles

  • Campaigns may be protracted

2,400 nm

Potential target sets much greater in size, more time-sensitive, more mobile, better concealed, better hardened, deeply buried

2,200 nm

DiegoGarcia

Northern RAAF Bases


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

Future Air Force: Creating an Effective Density of Surveillance & Strike Capabilities at Range

  • A future force capable of attacking the full range of targets in contested environments

    • Greater focus on preparing for potential Asia-Pacific operations

  • America’s “swing force” that can rapidly deploy to a 2nd theater to deter or spoil opportunistic acts of aggression

  • A force that takes full advantage of new technologies (unmanned, DE, other) to maintain freedom of action in the air, space, and EM spectrum

  • Balancing mix of short-and long-range

  • Fully harnessing the robotic revolution

  • Dominating the EM spectrum

  • Creating resilient forward postures


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

Future Navy: Creating a Force Mix that Maximizes Striking Power from the Sea

  • Improve the ability of aircraft carriers to project power ashore and into contested areas

  • Take advantage of manned and unmanned undersea capabilities that can operate in denied areas

  • Take advantage of new technologies that could create cost/exchange ratios favorable to the United States

  • Prepare for operations that may be of long duration

  • Getting the future carrier air wing right

  • Harnessing the potential of cyber & DE

  • Expanding payloads of the submarine fleet

  • Developing the right

  • PGM magazine


Harnessing the power of combinations in the pacific

Harnessing the Power of Combinations in the Pacific

Space Assets

More Dispersed, Resilient Basing Posture

Air-Breathing,

Long-Endurance Communications Relays

Aerial Refueling

Standoff Strike Platforms

Undersea Land-Attack Capacity

Penetrating Munitions

Standoff Strike Platforms

Electronic Warfare

Expendables

Penetrating Bombers

Next Generation Jammers

Carriers with Longer Range Air Wing Capabilities

Penetrating, Carrier-based

Multi-Mission UCAV


Future marine corps leveraging expeditionary capabilities

Future Marine Corps: Leveraging Expeditionary Capabilities

  • Focus on rapid crisis responses

    • Not a second land army

  • Distributed operations in the Pacific and Middle East

    • Work with allies and partners to establish forward expeditionary operating locations

  • Joint theater entry ops (different than traditional “forcible entries)

  • Right-sizing expeditionary lift

  • Modernizing the

  • STOVL force

  • Supporting capabilities for distributed ops

  • Fielding next generation EW capabilities


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

Future Army: Preparing

for the Post-Invasion Era

  • New approaches and capabilities for imposing costs in the Pacific and Persian Gulf

  • Focus on preparing for hybrid and counter-WMD operations

  • Land-based sea control

Land-based long-range strike

Air and missile defense

Leveraging the indirect approach: SFA, BPC

Land-based

sea denial


Summary

Summary

  • Early 1990s: End of Cold War >> shift to conventional theater

  • contingency scenarios

  • 2001: 9/11 >> address homeland defense requirements

  • 2002-2013: Iraq, Afghanistan >> major expansion of SOF, CT, unmanned aircraft, building partner capacity, etc.

  • Today

  • End of 12 years of war >> no large-scale stability ops

  • Pacific rebalancing, A2/AD challenges, WMD proliferation, hybrid conflicts >> time for a new FPC rather than an “update” that sustains the status quo


The proof will be in the budget i t may be time to finally break the golden rule

The Proof Will Be In The Budgetit may be time to finally break the “golden rule”

  • 1993 BUR

  • Today

Air Force

Navy & Marine Corps

Army

Defense-Wide

  • Service Shares of the Base Defense Budget

Does not include funding for overseas contingency operations


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

Questions


Defense budget

Defense Budget?

Baseline:No Additional Cuts

FY14 President’s Budget

Scenario B: Half Sequester

Scenario A: Full Sequester

(In FY14 Dollars)


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

CSBA Strategic Choices Exercise

Reshape for Future Challenges

Example exercise results for a full sequester scenario

  • Accelerated next bomber procurement

  • Funded new stealthy, multi-mission remotely piloted aircraft

  • Added precision-guided munitions to help offset force cuts

  • Invested in airborne directed energy weapons

$150 B

$100 B

$50 B

$0 B

-$50 B

-$100 B

-$150 B

-$200 B

-$250 B

-$300 B

-$350 B

Air

Strategic

Sea

Personnel

Readiness

S&T

Logistics, Basing

Missile Defense

Special Operations

Land, Expeditionary

Space, Cyber, Comms


Thoughts on the next force planning construct

CSBA Strategic Choices Exercise

Reshape for Future Challenges

Example exercise results for a full sequester scenario

  • Traded military and civilian personnel, contractors, to support modernization

  • Reduced near-term readiness FY14-18, fully restored readiness for FY19-23

$150 B

$100 B

$50 B

$0 B

  • Traded DoD TACAIR for long-rangecapabilities

    • Kept Air Force above 1,000 combat-coded fighters

  • Traded non-survivable RPAs for a new generation of stealthy, multi-mission unmanned vehicles

  • Reduced strategic and tactical airlift

-$50 B

-$100 B

-$150 B

-$200 B

-$250 B

-$300 B

-$350 B

Air

Strategic

Sea

Personnel

Readiness

S&T

Logistics, Basing

Missile Defense

Special Operations

Land, Expeditionary

Space, Cyber, Comms


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