a dynamical reconstruction of detailed atmospheric and related regional variability 1958 2000
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
A dynamical reconstruction of detailed atmospheric and related regional variability, 1958-2000.

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 25

A dynamical reconstruction of detailed atmospheric and related regional variability, 1958-2000. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 126 Views
  • Uploaded on

A dynamical reconstruction of detailed atmospheric and related regional variability, 1958-2000. Hans von Storch, Frauke Feser, Ralf Weisse, Arnt Pfizenmayer, Katja Woth, Insa Meinke, Mariza Cabral, Charlotte Hagner, Hilmar Messal

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' A dynamical reconstruction of detailed atmospheric and related regional variability, 1958-2000.' - amato


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
a dynamical reconstruction of detailed atmospheric and related regional variability 1958 2000

A dynamical reconstruction of detailed atmospheric and related regional variability, 1958-2000.

Hans von Storch, Frauke Feser, Ralf Weisse, Arnt Pfizenmayer, Katja Woth, Insa Meinke, Mariza Cabral, Charlotte Hagner, Hilmar Messal

Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany

Wroclaw, 27. June 2003

slide2

The basic atmospheric reconstruction; dynamical downscaling, spectral nudging, validation

  • Applications – storms, (waves), lead transport, run-off
  • Scenarios of plausible future change
slide4

Institut für Küstenforschung

I f K

Concept of Dynamical Downscaling

RCM

Physiographic detail

3-d vector of state

Known large scale state

projection of full state on large-scale scale

Large-scale (spectral) nudging

slide5

Spectral nudging vs. standard formulation

Large scale

Medium scale

Large scale

Medium scale

slide6

Institut für Küstenforschung

I f K

Spectral nudging vs. standard formulation

Similarity of zonal wind at 850 hPa between simulations and NCEP re-analyses

large scales

medium scales

standard formulation large-scale nudging

slide7

Institut für Küstenforschung

I f K

Spectral nudging vs. standard formulation

slide8

Mean monthly

precipitation [mm/month]

for 1999.

NCEP

REMO

HIPOCAS meeting Madrid Atmospheric fields REMO 5.0 run GKSS Frauke Feser

slide9

Institut für Küstenforschung

I f K

Spectral nudging vs. standard formulation

slide10

Extreme wind speeds

Southern North Sea

Feser, pers. comm.

DWD

REMO

20-year return values of wind speed,

based on daily 1992-97 data (color codes)

plus from station data in NL (numbers in black)

slide11

Institut für Küstenforschung

I f K

Skill in representing marine winds

significant wave height

[days]

wave direction

[days]

Red: buoy,yellow: radar, blue: wave model run with REMO winds

Gerd Gayer, pers. comm., 2001

slide13

1955

1995

1955

Estimatedlead emissions

(from Pacyna and Pacyna, 2000)

1975

slide14

1995

Calculated depositions

deposition

slide17

Hillmar Messal, 2003

Analysis REMO simulation difference

slide18

REMO simulation (forced with NCEP gobal re-analysis)

Arnt Pfizenmayer, pers. comm., 2003

precipitation in the odra catchment
Precipitation in the Odra catchment

Hillmar Messal, pers. comm.

slide21

A1

A world of rapid economic growth and rapid

introduction of new and more efficienttechnology.

A very heterogeneous world with an emphasis on

family values and local traditions.

A world of “dematerialization” and introduction of

clean technologies.

A world with an emphasis on local solutions to

economic and environmental sustainability.

“ business as usual ” scenario (1992).

A2

B1

B2

Institut für Küstenforschung

IS92a

I f K

“SRES” ScenariosSRES = IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

IPCC, 2001

slide22

Scenario for changing precipitation in summer at the end of the 21st century

Christensen and Christensen, 2003, nature

Change (%) in

mean summer precipitation total in 99% quantile 5-daily precipitation amounts (rare events)

conclusions
Conclusions
  • Multi-decade reconstruction of hourly weather on 50 km grid in all of Europe available, 1958-2002.
  • Several aspects checked but far from complete validation. Wind over the sea ok. Broad features of precip, cloudiness ok as well, but other quantities unknown.
  • Data (wind, precip, temp ….) may be used to reconstruct various other environmental conditions, such as ocean waves, storm surges, flooding, extreme events, long range transport of matter.
  • Data freely available for other research groups.
  • Polish groups welcome to validate, and use, data in particular with respect to Polish territory.
reconstruction of past decades and longer regional and local environmental conditions relevant
Reconstruction of past decades (and longer) regional and local environmental conditions relevant …
  • For determination of extreme events (frequency (Poison?), intensity) in terms of weather and impact variables. Preparation of adequate adaptation measures. Minimizing weather related risks.
  • Basis of reconstruction of historical climate (transfer functions; proxy data; historical data).
  • A posteriori analysis of past political regulations (example: lead, but also: flood protection).
  • Determination of range of „normal“ variations, in order to discriminate between natural climate variability and man-made climate change („detection and attribution“).
ad