Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities
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Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities For the Next Decade. The New Complexity Its Nature and Proximity Wide Thinking Required John Voeller, Black & Veatch. Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities For the Next Decade.

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The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities

For the Next Decade

The New Complexity

Its Nature and Proximity

Wide Thinking Required

John Voeller, Black & Veatch


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities

For the Next Decade

So What Does

The Future Look Like

In Which We All

Will Operate


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities

For the Next Decade

The Context of Our Session

The World Seems On Every Front to Be Getting More Disrupted, More Dangerous and More Complex. Is This Our Imagination Or If It Is Not and Risk of Almost Every Form Is Increasing What Are We Doing To Improve Our Data, Analysis, Simulation And Interpretation Capabilities To Understand and Anticipate

Tomorrow


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities

For the Next Decade

Our Goal

To Discuss Efforts From Industry, National Labs And Overseas International Efforts That Are Examining the Nature of Risk Now And In The Futures We Can See Or Suggest Are Possible And How We Can Examine Them Fully

Fundamental Concept Introduced

Wide Thinking


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Major Changes, Key Drivers, Principal Interrupts And Enticing Opportunities

For the Next Decade

Our Path For the Next Hour

Risk – Forms, Sources and Representations

Aging – Implications At A Global Level

Growth – You Have a Billion New Customers….

Energy – The Reality We Ignore

Water – Another Reality We Ignore

Climate Change? – Blind Decision Making

Minerals – Running Out Without Knowing

All Resources – A New Minimum

Government – Trying Hard

Industry – Waiting For Answers and Making Do

Narrow Thinking – An International Example

Broad Thinking – A Reasonable Attempt

Wide Thinking – Making Tomorrow An Opportunity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Risk

Situational Complexity

Size ~ Likelihood

Darker ~ More Impact

Perceived Impact – Billions of Dollars US

Unlikely Likely Very Likely


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Risk

Situational Complexity

Size ~ Likelihood

Darker ~ More Impact

Wider – Stronger Link


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Aging

Situational Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Aging

Situational Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Growth

Situational Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Growth

Situational Complexity

Percentage of Population

Younger Than 30 yrs Old


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Energy

Resource Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Energy

Resource Complexity

Lloyds 2011 World Risk Assessment

1. Businesses Which Prepare For And Take Advantage Of The New Energy Reality Will Prosper – Failure To Do So Could Be Catastrophic

2. Market Dynamics And Environmental Factors Mean Business Can No Longer Rely On Low Cost Traditional Energy Sources

3. China And Growing Asian Economies Will Play An Increasingly Important Role In Global Energy Security

4. We Are Heading Towards A Global Oil Supply Crunch And Price Spike

5. Energy Infrastructure Will Become Increasingly Vulnerable As A Result Of Climate Change And Operations In Harsher Environments

6. Lack Of Global Regulation On Climate Change Is Creating An Environment Of Uncertainty For Business, Which Is Damaging Investment Plans

7. To Manage Increasing Energy Costs And Carbon Exposure Businesses Must Reduce Fossil Fuel Consumption

8. Business Must Address Energy-Related Risks To Supply Chains And The Increasing Vulnerability Of ‘Just-In-Time’ Models

9. Investment In Renewable Energy And ‘Intelligent’ Infrastructure Is Booming. This Revolution Presents Huge Opportunities For New Business Partnerships


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Energy

Resource Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Energy

Resource Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Energy

Resource Complexity

Uncertain Political Commitment

To Technology Incentives

Future Demand

Uncertainty

Environmental

Pollution Liability

Policy Change Undermine

Viability of Investments

Price Fluctuations

Hinder Decision-making

Increasing Emission

& Performance Stds

Renewable Energy

Policy Uncertainty

Carbon Price

Uncertainty

Technology and

Resource Access Risks

Financial and

Investment Risks

Regulatory and

Environmental Risks

Risks for Energy Sector

Reputation RIsks

Physical and

Operational Risks

Lack of Climate Policy

For Long-term Planning

Operational Threats

In Unstable Areas

Operational Threats

In Unstable Areas

Regional

Carbon Pricing

Harsher Physical

Environments

Harsher Physical

Environments

Infrastructure Failure

Via Climate Change

Infrastructure Failure

Via Climate Change


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Energy

Resource Complexity

Uncertain Political Commitment

To Technology Incentives

Government

Policies

Carbon Price

Uncertainty

Policy Change Undermine

Viability of Investments

Higher and Volatile

Energy Prices

Increasing Laws and

Stds on Efficiency

Consumer Pressure For

CO2 Emissions Labeling

Fuel and Power

Supply Disruptions

Technology

Risks

Short-term Supply

Chain Risks

Financial and

Regulatory Risks

Risks for Wider Business

Longer-Term

Operational RIsks

Reputation

Management

Lack of Climate Policy

For Long-term Planning

Scrutiny of

Carbon Portfolio

Regional

Carbon Pricing

Services Compromised

By Energy Disruption


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Energy

Resource Complexity

Basic Realities

From the national energy front, the following is fundamental:

There are 9 cars per thousand people in China today

There are 300+ cars per thousand people in the USA today

When China goes to 11 cars per thousand people, they will consume another 71 million gallons of gasoline per day

That is 21 million more gallons than the entire US burns in a day.

The math is inescapable….


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Water

Resource Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Water

Resource Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Water

Resource Complexity

Basic Realities

Some Simple Arithmetic

Amount of water total on Earth – Fixed

Amount of recoverable fresh water on earth –

Fixed without desal

Amount of desal-based water supportable with current technology – 11% of world requirements currently

limited by energy costs

Population Growth in same period – 2-3 billion


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Water

Resource Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Climate Change?

Threat Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Climate Change?

Threat Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Climate Change?

Threat Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Climate Change?

Threat Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Climate Change?

Threat Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Climate Change?

Threat Complexity

None of These And Almost All Others Ignored

The Emissions of 31 Chemicals With Many

Times The GHG Impact of CO2 Including

Methane Which Is 100 times the CO2 Impact

Per Cubic Foot and Ocean Emissions of This

Are Increasing At A Massive Rate Due To

Ocean Warming and Current Deviations

Climate Change?


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Researchers predict that supplies of indium, used in liquid-crystal displays

and of hafnium, a critical element for next-generation semiconductors

such as N-Core Chips

could be exhausted by 2017.

and

The world's zinc will be gone by 2037

Minerals

Innovation Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

General Electric discovered last year that the one mineral known to prevent high temperature creep in their

aircraft turbine blades was unavailable

because of Chinese market control

Millions were Spent on Substitute As

Market Price Increased 13,000%

Minerals

Innovation Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Qualcom recently examined the current cell phones and found they use

61 elements of the periodic table

up from 15 in 2002

Most are no longer under Western control and

there are no substitutes for the majority

of them.

Minerals

Innovation Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Minerals

Innovation Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Minerals

Innovation Complexity

China’s rare earth monopoly threatens global suppliers

Following two acquisitions in the past six months, Korean, Japanese and Western players may be locked out of the sector. With over 90% of the global rare earth resource held by Chinese companies, the country’s monopoly looks unchallenged.

China currently produces 95% of the worlds rare earth supply. Rare earth metals are needed for manufacturing of wind turbines, plasma televisions, mobile phones, hybrid car batteries meaning a China monopoly could shift the high-tech manufacturing bases from Japan and Korea to China.

China employs a three-pronged strategy; rare earth exports are restricted, imports encouraged, and outbound rare earth acquisitions actively encouraged.


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

"China at 10% GDP growth per year, has become the largest consumer of several key metals, generating about one-quarter of the total world demand for aluminum, copper, and steel

China consumes 25% of the world's aluminum, 22% of copper, 18% of nickel, 44% of iron ore and 31% of steel.

India is a close second with an economy that is expanding at a clip of more than 9% annually.

Economists say a growth rate of 9% to 10% is probable for China for the rest of the decade while they say 7% to 8% is sustainable in India."

Minerals

Innovation Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Definition – Era of Insufficient Plenty

The last century starting with the industrial revolution has been characterized by two major processes. The first is the extraction and processing of natural resources to feed the product lines at a reasonable cost. The second was the finding and buying or negotiating for a commodity, device or knowledge fragment with confidence that it was available albeit at a price. What happens when things we need for our processes become unavailable at any price and we are not ready with the tools and knowledge of alternatives with full cognizance. This situation suggests that every major engineering discipline will be challenged to find alternative materials, methods and processes.

All Resources

Innovation Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Government

Rule Complexity

So What Is

Government Doing

Now To

Increase Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

A new Executive Order requires agencies reduce GHG emissions

30% reduction in vehicle fleet petroleum use by 2020;

26% improvement in water efficiency by 2020;

50% recycling and waste diversion by 2015;

95% of all applicable contracts will meet sustainability requirements;

Implementation of the 2030 net-zero-energy building requirement;

Implementation of the stormwater provisions of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, section 438; and

Development of guidance for sustainable Federal building locations in alignment with the Livability Principles put forward by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Department of Transportation, and the Environmental Protection Agency.

Government

Rule Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Aggressive moves by GSA to force strong metrics in all facilities from the CIA to the VA

Dept. of Homeland Security looking at lack of pursuit of sustainability as a form of national insecurity that should be addressed in tandem with security

NIST teaming with National Institute of Building Science to create very aggressive energy, materials and methods standard based on sustainability

Government

Rule Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

DOD has already adopted major metrics in future energy use from number of jeep trips across bases to placement of modular nuclear units as base load

Dir of National Intelligence released open IDIQ with no limits on task size or number to apply sustainable solutions to all intel facilities world-wide

Environmental Protection Agency is waiting to impose rules and regulations. A recent analysis, however, suggests the environmental agency may ultimately do more harm than good depending on how it acts.

Government

Rule Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

After a century of developing materials, standards, specs and processes, we must re-examine them in light of sustainability of all kinds

This will demand intense discipline, personal and corporate to make sure this is a positive, not a negative value event

We have an opportunity to return engineering to its very roots by rethinking all the assumptions on which the last century of engineering was based.

Government

Rule Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Industry

Business Complexity

So What Is

Industry Doing To

Address This


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Industry

Business Complexity

Plants and Facilities Future

Complexity Of Plant Devices Goes Way Up

Complexity Of Plant Economic Optimization Goes Up

Complexity Of Plant Systems and Systems Integration Goes Up

Complexity Of Plant Upgrade Path Goes Up and Cycle Accelerates

Complexity Of Process Content Goes Up

Complexity Of Sensory Systems And Their Interpretation Goes Up

Complexity Of Design And Construction’s View To Operational

And Maintenance Impacts And Consequences Goes Up

And Finally Overt Demands That Certain Tools and Functions Be

Artificially Applied With Limited Knowledge of Consequence


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Industry

Business Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Industry

Business Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Industry

Business Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Industry

Business Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Industry

Business Complexity

Masdar


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Industry

Business Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Industry

Business Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Industry

Business Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Narrow Thinking

Decision Complexity

An Example of How

Wrong National Wisdom

Can Be As Basis

For Future Projects


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Narrow Thinking

Decision Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Broad Thinking

Decision Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Wide Thinking

Decision Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Narrow Thinking

Decision Complexity

An Example of How

Bad National

Awareness Of The

World Can Be


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Narrow Thinking

Decision Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Narrow Thinking

Decision Complexity

1991 – Federal Helium Reserve

(billions of cubic ft)

1996 – Congress Passes

Helium Privatization Act

32

(1991)

19

(2008)


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Wide Thinking

Value Complexity

Some Examples

Of Advanced Technologies

With Significant Implications

To Infrastructure


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Wide Thinking

Value Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Wide Thinking

Value Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Wide Thinking

Value Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Wide Thinking

Value Complexity


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Wide Think Tools

Making Complexity Work

What Are Some

Implications For

Projects In The Future


Petroleum process model

Wide Think Tools

Making Complexity Work

Petroleum Process Model

NOTE: Zoom to 300% to see details


Agriculture simulation model

Wide Think Tools

Making Complexity Work

Agriculture Simulation Model


Corn detailed input process output diagram

Corn Oil

Processing

Corn Oil

Sulfur Dioxide

Supplies

Supplies

Supplies

Supplies

Capital

Capital

Capital

Capital

Water

Water

Water

Water

Yeast

Primarily feed or food?

Industrial

Production

Industrial

Production

Industrial

Production

Industrial

Production

Industrial

Production

Hominy

Distillers Wet Grains

Condensed Distillers Solubles

Gluten

Prime Meal?

Gluten Feed

Gluten Meal

Ethyl Alcohol

Condensed Corn Fermented Extractives

Wet Feed

Starch

Standard Meal

Prime Grits

Crude Corn Oil

Flour

Germ Meal

Fuels

Distillers Dried Grains w/Solubles

Food

Processing

Food

Processing

Food

Processing

Food

Processing

Food

Processing

Alcoholic

Beverages

Alcoholic

Beverages

Telecommunications

Alpha Amylase Enzyme

Glucoamylase Enzyme

Pharmaceuticals

Pharmaceuticals

Chemicals

Fuels

Fuels

Bran Products

Energy

Fuels

Labor

Telecommunications

Dry

Milling

Pharmaceuticals

Pharmaceuticals

Pharmaceuticals

Pharmaceuticals

Cosmetics

Textiles

Plastics

Textiles

Plastics

Food

Food

Food

Capital

Autos & Trucks

Corn Seed

Building Materials

Corn

Production

Whole

Kernel

Fertilizer

Yeast

Farm Machinery

Industrial

Production

Pesticides

Legend

Yeast

Food Products

Feed

Services

Input & Output

Critical Infrastructure Dependency

Process

Commodity Flow Direction

Demand & Information Flow Direction

Consumer Marketplace

Industrial Marketplace

Infrastructure Critical Dependency

Output enters different infrastructure

Storage Process

Food

Ethyl Alcohol

Wet

Milling

Food

Processing

Corn

Corn Syrup

Corn Oil

Chemical

Production

Chemical

Production

Dextrose/Dextrin

High Fructose Corn Syrup

Feed

mostly feed?

to be expanded

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Labor

Labor

Labor

Labor

Fuels

Fuels

Version 11/3/2003 CIP/DSS

Telecommunications

Telecommunications

Wide Think Tools

Making Complexity Work

Corn Detailed Input/Process/Output Diagram


Liquidity simulation model

Wide Think Tools

Making Complexity Work

Liquidity Simulation Model


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Wide Thinking

Making Complexity Work

Constraint

(D < 16”)

Consequence

(Valve decision

locked)

N

N

Valve

Input

(vendor =

Haworth)

Decision

Action

(Valve bought)

N

0, 1

1

Linkage

(Owner =

Procurement)

Decision

Type = Buy

Implication

(Valve_Ship

Date Can Be

Set)

N

N

Example Elements of a Decision


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Wide Thinking

Making Complexity Work

DECISION

Object

Baseline

Perform Action

Decision Made

Type Consequence

Constraint Action

Input Implication

Linkage

Receive Input

Input needed/accepted

Sense alignment

Link registered

Canvas constraints

Constraint sensed

Enable implications

Messages

Methods

Attributes


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Wide Thinking

Making Complexity Work

Data States

Each Item of Information Has A Unique Set of States

Awareness of State Allows Assembly of Situational

Understanding of Next Actions

Transition From One State To Another Is Notification

Trigger and Enables Spontaneous Collaboration

No System In The World Currently Provides For This


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

PUMP A - Delivery Date

PUMP A - Inlet Size

PUMP A - Flow Rate

PUMP A - Activity Code in Schedule

Data States

MINE

OURS

Transition Indicates Discipline Release and Trigger For

Multi-Discipline Review

THEIRS

ALL-IN

DO-IT

PLANNED

DONE

TESTED

HAND-OFF

THEIRS

HOLD

Wide Thinking

Making Complexity Work


The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

Wide Thinking

Making Complexity Work

  • ARIA

  • (Automated Revision Implication Assessment)

  • One of the greatest sources of risk in the EC realm is misalignment between groups when changes occur in one and are not communicated to others. ARIA was developed in 1993 to ensure that the implications of change are evaluated automatically and the appropriate groups are at minimum notified and in sophisticated implementations, actions are taken directly to prevent embracing of what appears to be positive but isolated steps that actually destroy value in other dependent efforts.


  • The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Wide Thinking

    Simplifying Complexity

    How Does All This

    Impact Infrastructures

    And People That

    Create Them


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Wide Thinking

    Making Complexity Work

    Simplifying Complexity

    Integrated Infrastructure Initiative

    How do we look across all of infrastructure issues and develop an integrated Model that feeds value from one solution to support addressing of another?

    It is complex, requires addressing far more than engineering and construction and cannot be done by one company or level of government alone.

    The following discusses what might be done and what needs to be analyzed in detail to ensure we are not overlooking a major opportunity for us and something the current Administration and both houses of Congress would find far too compelling to ignore.

    The following describes several drivers including one we never consider that are must to-do’s that can feed our other needs.


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Renewables

    Simplifying Complexity

    Sun

    Wind

    NexGen Biomass

    AuxStorage

    PowerControl

    T&D grid access

    Overall still not cost effective

    Nuclear

    Ocean

    Coal

    Underground

    Incrementally planned

    Very Old in some portions

    Right of way is underground

    And not protected on surface

    Maintenance Cost Very High

    Incrementally planned and

    not built for use of today

    Very Old in some portions

    Not built for changes

    Right of way valuable

    Maintenance high

    Aquifers

    Oil

    Fuels

    Switchover demands

    Made w/o full analysis

    Not all choices examined

    And tangential impacts

    Ignored

    No guarantee steps

    will help

    Sources

    Need to be

    Rebalanced while

    We expand food

    Supply and clean

    The acquifers and

    Surface sources

    OldTrans

    OldTrans

    Rivers

    NG

    Some must be converted to NG

    or a mix of coal and NG

    Some must be shut down and

    asset abandoned

    Restructure using distributed

    Recognize grid map may now

    be wrong

    Underground and very costly

    to put back in same place

    Many failures and increasing

    Use and demand map may be

    wrong now

    Ownership by cities a question

    Current function not enough

    Economy

    Water

    Lakes

    Low VC available

    Low Bond available

    High Yield Not possible

    Cities broke

    Pensions damaged or gone

    Must fill job needs

    New knowledge needed

    not just replication of

    past knowledge

    Current plans forward

    assume stranded assets

    are acceptable – are not

    OldWater

    OldPower

    Storage

    Waste

    Chance to incorporate recycle

    in places of scarcity

    Chance to change ownership

    model and financials

    Run on surface to lower cost

    and speed replacement.

    Begin distributed power

    Rebalance map and types due

    to area changes and needs

    Change owner and value view

    NewWater

    NewPower

    Expensive to build

    Very slow to construct

    High carbon footprint on

    content

    Decades old, on extended

    licenses

    Base load valuable

    Underground

    Unpowered

    Enmonitored

    Ancient in many locales

    Right of way is underground

    And not protected on surface

    Maintenance Cost Very High

    Regulations

    Power

    Power Control

    Based on assumptions not

    necessarily correct today

    Buried in thousands of

    Codes, specs, requirements,

    Bid documents, work rules,

    etc.

    Current authorities being

    Capricious in application

    OldWasteWater

    OldNuclear

    Drink

    Base

    Load

    Gen II+ no better than current

    PBMR lower carbon footprint

    and lower cost maintenance

    PBMR faster construction at

    lower cost

    Small nucs for power, heat,

    desal and hydrogen gen

    Chance to incorporate recycle

    in places of scarcity

    Chance to change ownership

    model and financials

    Run on surface to lower cost

    and speed replacement.

    T&D

    Losses

    Outputs

    Designed for prior era

    Cost sole focus

    Cost and Price control

    Needs alteration and

    Different management

    Opportunistic owning

    Needs to be

    examined

    Outputs

    Models are based on

    cost – must be moved to

    New metrics and full

    Implications understood

    Must leverage all sources

    And uses

    Treated

    NewWasteWater

    NewNuclear

    Power

    Industrial

    Above ground

    Integrated plan

    Replace old & own different

    Rethink right of way with road

    Maintenance cost lower and

    monitor/control easy

    Support dist. Power option

    Integrated plan and own

    Rebalance for options

    Change use model

    Leverage right of way

    Change maintenance model

    Add dynamic elements for

    easier change

    Industrial

    Power

    Transport

    Storage

    NewTrans

    NewTrans

    Storage

    Efficiency

    Last four decades focused on

    cost only

    Need new metrics and full

    understanding of impacts

    across all aspects of the

    business, environmental,

    economy and society

    Integrated Infrastructure Initiative

    The Landscape of Assets and Issues


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Simplifying Complexity

    Renewables

    Sun

    Wind

    NexGen Biomass

    AuxStorage

    PowerControl

    T&D grid access

    Overall still not cost effective

    Nuclear

    Ocean

    Coal

    Underground

    Incrementally planned

    Very Old in some portions

    Right of way is underground

    And not protected on surface

    Maintenance Cost Very High

    Incrementally planned and

    not built for use of today

    Very Old in some portions

    Not built for changes

    Right of way valuable

    Maintenance high

    Aquifers

    Oil

    Fuels

    Switchover demands

    Made w/o full analysis

    Not all choices examined

    And tangential impacts

    Ignored

    No guarantee steps

    will help

    Sources

    Need to be

    Rebalanced while

    We expand food

    Supply and clean

    The acquifers and

    Surface sources

    OldTrans

    OldTrans

    Rivers

    NG

    Some must be converted to NG

    or a mix of coal and NG

    Some must be shut down and

    asset abandoned

    Restructure using distributed

    Recognize grid map may now

    be wrong

    Underground and very costly

    to put back in same place

    Many failures and increasing

    Use and demand map may be

    wrong now

    Ownership by cities a question

    Current function not enough

    Economy

    Water

    Lakes

    Low VC available

    Low Bond available

    High Yield Not possible

    Cities broke

    Pensions damaged or gone

    Must fill job needs

    New knowledge needed

    not just replication of

    past knowledge

    Current plans forward

    assume stranded assets

    are acceptable – are not

    OldWater

    OldPower

    What's Missing?

    Storage

    Waste

    Chance to incorporate recycle

    in places of scarcity

    Chance to change ownership

    model and financials

    Run on surface to lower cost

    and speed replacement.

    Begin distributed power

    Rebalance map and types due

    to area changes and needs

    Change owner and value view

    NewWater

    NewPower

    Expensive to build

    Very slow to construct

    High carbon footprint on

    content

    Decades old, on extended

    licenses

    Base load valuable

    Underground

    Unpowered

    Enmonitored

    Ancient in many locales

    Right of way is underground

    And not protected on surface

    Maintenance Cost Very High

    Regulations

    Power

    Power Control

    Based on assumptions not

    necessarily correct today

    Buried in thousands of

    Codes, specs, requirements,

    Bid documents, work rules,

    etc.

    Current authorities being

    Capricious in application

    OldWasteWater

    OldNuclear

    Drink

    Base

    Load

    Gen II+ no better than current

    PBMR lower carbon footprint

    and lower cost maintenance

    PBMR faster construction at

    lower cost

    Small nucs for power, heat,

    desal and hydrogen gen

    Chance to incorporate recycle

    in places of scarcity

    Chance to change ownership

    model and financials

    Run on surface to lower cost

    and speed replacement.

    Outputs

    Models are based on

    cost – must be moved to

    New metrics and full

    Implications understood

    Must leverage all sources

    And uses

    Outputs

    Designed for prior era

    Cost sole focus

    Cost and Price control

    Needs alteration and

    Different management

    Opportunistic owning

    Needs to be

    examined

    T&D

    Losses

    Treated

    NewWasteWater

    NewNuclear

    Power

    Industrial

    Above ground

    Integrated plan

    Replace old & own different

    Rethink right of way with road

    Maintenance cost lower and

    monitor/control easy

    Support dist. Power option

    Integrated plan and own

    Rebalance for options

    Change use model

    Leverage right of way

    Change maintenance model

    Add dynamic elements for

    easier change

    Industrial

    Power

    Transport

    Storage

    NewTrans

    NewTrans

    Storage

    Efficiency

    Last four decades focused on

    cost only

    Need new metrics and full

    understanding of impacts

    across all aspects of the

    business, environmental,

    economy and society

    Integrated Infrastructure Initiative

    The Landscape of Assets and Issues


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Wide Thinking

    Proactive Complexity

    • The premise of the Integrated Infrastructure Initiative (III)

    • is based on a few basic facts.

    • There are certain areas of current infrastructure that are failing or will soon because of age or unforeseen usage demands and must be replaced as their loss produces substantial socio-economic disruption.

    • Some of these infrastructure are buried below cities, businesses or landspace making replacement costly and maintenance more costly than if surface installed. The original premise for design can be overcome with modern engineering and controls.

    • Some infrastructure must be replaced because their GHG profile is unfavorable and others may require major revision where the obvious choice may be wrong and the best choice overlooked.

    • Some infrastructure should be examined for replacement or revision in order to be significantly more efficient, more sustainable or in cases of critical infrastructure, more resilient.

    • The current owners/operators of several key infrastructure types are having unprecedented financial problems with no clear path out in the next decade. A new model and likely new ownership is required and must be part of the integrated view to overall infrastructure renewal. We must be able to leverage all investor options and take advantage of the fact that most other investment vehicles are at an all-time low allowing attractive options to be cost effective in the long term.

    • Any major national infrastructure rebuilding effort will create jobs and provide immediate socio-economic benefit at a time when normal processes cannot build the necessary momentum.

    Integrated Infrastructure Initiative


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Wide Thinking

    Proactive Complexity

    The premise of the Integrated Infrastructure Initiative (III) is based on a few basic facts.

    A Theory To Be Tested – If there are certain elements of infrastructure that must be replaced to prevent social, economic or environmental disruption or damage, can these be managed in such a way that once completed, some of their revenue/profits can seed other infrastructure projects of similar or different type in an investment cascade.

    Path - Given all the incentives, enviro/eco credits from carbon to forest, money saved by alternative implementation in installation, operation and maintenance and the opportunity to make ready for the next decades, such a complex path must be fully explored and the silos that currently prevent this type of integrated thinking must be eliminated to ensure maximum benefit to society at minimum cost.

    Integrated Infrastructure Initiative


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Wide Thinking

    Proactive Complexity

    Example of Integrated Infrastructure

    City 2.0 - Issues

    In major cities, we have several infrastructures in a highly aged state and already

    Collapsing at a very disruptive rate. The water, sanitary and storm sewers, gas, embedded communications and in some cases district heating. Digging up past infrastructure is costly at a minimum, nearly impossible in some areas and dooms any replacement to the high maintenance costs and disruption that are inherent in urban underground infrastructure.

    These same cities experience massive gridlock and transportation problems with few options, a need to reformulate areas of the inner city for living, no money to do anything new, no bond market to fund long term in conventional manner, tax revenues that are down and will stay down for years and most importantly, most cannot meet their pension fund obligations. Unlike roads, their ability to engage Congress on these issues is very limited and in some cases non-existent regardless of the lip service. (Ex: $400 billion to rebuild water infrastructure went to roads).

    Integrated Infrastructure Initiative


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Wide Thinking

    Proactive Complexity

    Example of Integrated Infrastructure

    City 2.0 – Integrated Image

    1. Business and ownership models rewritten to allow multiple investment paths, recovery options, customer sale back, etc. New infrastructure can have a completely different ownership, use charge and cash flow perspective.

    2. Deep urban area becomes multi-infrastructure layers. In transportation, the only option is up. Up means trucks on bottom layer, cars on second layer and people, bicycles and lower power electric people movers on third and utilities including new water, sewer, power, communications on layer one through four as needed. This allows new to be installed without disrupting existing, allows separation of modes with easy connection if needed and protection where needed.

    3. Incrementally abandon underground water, sewer and gas infrastructure. Run on surface using transport right of way and elevation of layer structure. In order to change entire cost and change flexibility, consider running trapezoid chamber beside or in median of roads. This will allow easy installation, minimum maintenance disruption, visual confirmation of sensing control and easy expansion or change. New materials, near zero friction nano-coatings and renewable pumping energy technology make this possible.

    Integrated Infrastructure Initiative


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Wide Thinking

    Proactive Complexity

    Example of Integrated Infrastructure

    City 2.0 – Integrated Image (cont’d)

    4. The elevation of the layer scheme also allows use of Kinetic Energy Recovery Systems (KERS) for all inertial and potential energy capture in all movement to offset people and goods energy use.

    5. All infrastructure ownership would be private but with provisos for city government and civil service pension participation as investors, not controllers.

    6. All interconnection for any service would have a five year use permit attached after which it would expire and not be renewed. This would ensure that tangential and collateral costs for cities and its residents in embracing new technologies where companies benefit but others impacted have no recovery processes. In the last six telecom upgrades, the collateral impacts of placement and implementation have cost cities and citizens millions in each city just by clumsy use of directional drilling. Recovery methods need to be smart and change with technology, not solely when PSC’s wake up.

    Integrated Infrastructure Initiative


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Wide Thinking

    Proactive Complexity

    Example of Integrated Infrastructure

    Rethinking Power and LNG

    In some areas of the world, there are massive moves planned to convert coal plants to other options but the options are impractical. One option is incremental conversion that achieves massive reductions in emissions while leveraging existing infrastructure in new ways.

    III would take a different view. In areas where LNG can be brought to the coast, install a receiver terminal with a down conversion to CNG. CNG is 60% as compressed as LNG but requires no refrigeration. Then use coal trains already in use by inserting a CNG tank in each car. Finally, add secondary burners in coal boilers to allow mixed fuel firing for now until economics allow full conversion.

    We avoid the pipeline cost and ROW issues of NG delivery to plants not on networks, we leverage existing assets at every level and we begin to show a positive, proactive movement to help with climate change to ease pressure and enhance some categories of investor communities.

    Integrated Infrastructure Initiative


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Wide Thinking

    Proactive Complexity

    Integrated Infrastructure Initiative

    We cannot do this alone and engineering companies together cannot move this ahead without a comprehensive plan involving government, industry, academia, investment groups, regulators and overseas markets with needs, interests and money to invest.

    The silos of infrastructure, of government, of markets and of politics have prevented any of these examples and two dozen others from being possible, but the Obama Administration has many motivations for making this work if someone can express it to them in an authoritative manner. This means alliances with the NSF, DOE, EPA, DOC and the right Congressional committees.

    In order to do this, we need to create an alliance based on a 501(c)-3 with an executive committee made up of CEO/President/Government leaders and an operational committee made up of working groups focused on integrated examples like the ones discussed here.

    Integrated Infrastructure Initiative


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    What’s Next

    Proactive Complexity

    What’s Next

    ?


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    What’s Next

    This Is Only The Beginning

    Assured 2022 Futurisms

    • N-state ComputingNon-Linear is New Math

    • Mutels – Shape Shifting MetalsChaos is New Calculus

    • Materials GardensDecision-centric Thinking

    • Organic MachiningMaterial Rehabilitation

    • Matrix GelsMolecular Aerogels

    • Intelli-bending and shapingDirect Buyer Guidance

    • Self-Organizing Omni-NetworksSelf-recycling Materials

    • DNA-based Sensor FamilySelf Policing Regulations

    • Genetic MaterialsSelf Routing Goods

    • Genetic AccountingSelf Sensing

    • Multi-Phasic MaterialsSelf Repairing

    • Synthe-SymsSelf Improving

    • Dynamic Intellectual CapitalSelf Eliminating

  • InterDevice, InterSystem Self-Optimization


  • The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    What’s Next

    Something To Keep In Mind

    One Element of That Future

    A New Metric

    THE USCR – The consumption of any material or commodity equal

    To That Of the United States In The Same Timeframe (default a year)

    This is not the amount consumed on US soil, but the amount necessary

    To supply all needs, direct or indirect for that material.

    Real Question Is – Can The World Stand 2 or more USCR not only in

    Food or Fuels but also in water, drugs, rare metals or even

    Something as simple as molybdenum for lubricants

    Only Integrated Innovation Can Hope To Solve

    The Issues This Will Create


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Thanks

    The New Complexity

    Its Nature and Proximity

    John Voeller, CKO, CTO, Senior VP

    Black & Veatch [email protected]

    816-853-7839, Skype – john.voeller49


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Thanks

    Background

    Slides


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Risk

    Situational Complexity


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Narrow Thinking

    Decision Complexity


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Narrow Thinking

    Decision Complexity


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Narrow Thinking

    Decision Complexity


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Broad Thinking

    Decision Complexity


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Broad Thinking

    Future Complexity


    The new complexity its nature and proximity wide thinking required john voeller black veatch

    Broad Thinking

    Future Complexity


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