The Evolution of Predecessor Rainfall Events (PRE) with Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season. Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr. WFO Binghamton, NY Northeast Regional Operational Workshop November 5, 2009 . AR TC Tracks and PRE Locations. All AR TC Tracks.
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The Evolution of Predecessor Rainfall Events (PRE) with Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season
Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr.
WFO Binghamton, NY
Northeast Regional Operational Workshop
November 5, 2009
All AR TC Tracks
All AR PPTC Tracks; with PRE centroids (colored dots)
Conceptual Model: LOT PREs Ahead Of SR Or AR TCs
LL θe-Ridge Axis
Revised and updated from Fig. 13 of Bosart and Carr (1978)
Representative TC Tracks
Up to 7” (175 mm) rainfall
Height Rises / PV Destruction
Near intersection of Bill’s moisture and pre-existing moist plume
4-8” (100-200 mm) rainfall
Separate moist axis
Axis of tropical moisture
Widespread 5-10” (up to 250 mm) rainfall
Tropical Moisture Axis