The Evolution of Predecessor Rainfall Events (PRE) with Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 20...
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The Evolution of Predecessor Rainfall Events (PRE) with Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season. Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr. WFO Binghamton, NY Northeast Regional Operational Workshop November 5, 2009 . AR TC Tracks and PRE Locations. All AR TC Tracks.

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Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr. WFO Binghamton, NY Northeast Regional Operational Workshop

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Michael l jurewicz sr wfo binghamton ny northeast regional operational workshop

The Evolution of Predecessor Rainfall Events (PRE) with Tropical Cyclones Danny and Bill from the 2009 Season

Michael L. Jurewicz, Sr.

WFO Binghamton, NY

Northeast Regional Operational Workshop

November 5, 2009


Ar tc tracks and pre locations

AR TC Tracks and PRE Locations

All AR TC Tracks

All AR PPTC Tracks; with PRE centroids (colored dots)


Michael l jurewicz sr wfo binghamton ny northeast regional operational workshop

Conceptual Model: LOT PREs Ahead Of SR Or AR TCs

UL Jet

LL θe-Ridge Axis

PREs

See inset

Mid-level Streamlines

TC Rainfall

Revised and updated from Fig. 13 of Bosart and Carr (1978)

Representative TC Tracks


Michael l jurewicz sr wfo binghamton ny northeast regional operational workshop

Bill


Brief history of bill himself

Brief History of Bill Himself

  • Bill was initially a Cape Verde tropical wave, which became a named storm on 15 August

  • From 19-23 August, Bill attained hurricane status well off the U.S. East Coast (briefly reached Category 3)

  • From 23-25 August, Bill transitioned to an extra-tropical system, as it recurved into the westerlies southeast of the Canadian maritime provinces


Bill s approximate path

Bill’s Approximate Path


Heavy rainfall event across new england

Heavy Rainfall Event across New England


Afternoon rainfall on 22 august

Afternoon Rainfall on 22 August

Up to 7” (175 mm) rainfall


Radar loop

Radar Loop


Water vapor loop

Water Vapor Loop


250 mb at 12z 22 august

250 mb at 12z, 22 August


250 mb at 00z 23 august

250 mb at 00z, 23 August


200 mb height wind pv 14z 22 august

200 mb Height/Wind/PV, 14z, 22 August


200 mb height wind pv 22z 22 august

200 mb Height/Wind/PV, 22z, 22 August

Height Rises / PV Destruction


Surface analysis 18z 22 august

Surface Analysis, 18z, 22 August

Possible PRE


850 mb moisture transport

850 mb Moisture Transport

Possible PRE


700 mb heights 925 mb winds theta e at 21z 22 august

700 mb Heights, 925 mb Winds/Theta-E, at 21z, 22 August

Near intersection of Bill’s moisture and pre-existing moist plume


Parcel trajectories into central new england

Parcel Trajectories into Central New England

Bill’s Track


Bill summary

Bill Summary

  • Bill fit into the AR track for potential PRE-producing systems

  • One main heavy rain episode took place on the periphery of Bill’s influence

    • Southern NH on 22 August

    • 4-7” (up to 175 mm) of rain fell within just a few hours, causing flash flooding

  • Transient nature of heavier rain bands precluded excessive rainfall/runoff problems elsewhere


Danny

Danny


Brief history of danny himself

Brief History of Danny Himself

  • Danny was initially a Cape Verde tropical wave, and took several days to become a named storm

  • Finally, on 26 August, it attained Tropical Storm status east of the Bahamas

  • From 26-29 August, Danny remained a Tropical Storm well off the Southeast U.S. coast

  • From 29-31 August, Danny weakened to a Tropical Depression, and ultimately transitioned to an extra-tropical system, as it recurved off the U.S. East Coast


Danny s approximate path

Danny’s Approximate Path


Heavy rainfall event across the mid atlantic region

Heavy Rainfall Event across the Mid-Atlantic Region


Late night early morning rainfall 27 28 august

Late Night/Early Morning Rainfall, 27-28 August

4-8” (100-200 mm) rainfall


Radar loop1

Radar Loop


250 mb at 00z 28 august

250 mb at 00z, 28 August


Water vapor loop1

Water Vapor Loop


700 mb heights 925 mb winds theta e at 05z 28 august

700 mb Heights, 925 mb Winds/Theta-E, at 05z, 28 August

Separate moist axis

Axis of tropical moisture


850 mb at 00z 28 august

850 mb at 00z, 28 August


Parcel trajectories into the mid atlantic region

Parcel Trajectories into the Mid-Atlantic Region


200 mb height jet pv 02z 28 august

200 mb Height/Jet/PV, 02z, 28 August


200 mb height jet pv 09z 28 august

200 mb Height/Jet/PV, 09z, 28 August


Sb cape analysis 06z 28 august

SB CAPE Analysis, 06z, 28 August


Heavy rainfall event just off the mid atlantic coast

Heavy Rainfall Event Just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast


Late afternoon overnight rainfall 28 29 august

Late Afternoon/Overnight Rainfall, 28-29 August

Widespread 5-10” (up to 250 mm) rainfall


Radar loop 28 29 august

Radar Loop, 28-29 August


250 mb at 00z 29 august

250 mb at 00z, 29 August


Water vapor 28 29 august

Water Vapor, 28-29 August


700 mb heights 925 mb winds theta e at 03z 29 august

700 mb Heights, 925 mb Winds/Theta-E, at 03z, 29 August

Tropical Moisture Axis


Sb cape analysis 00z 29 august

SB CAPE Analysis, 00z, 29 August

Possible PRE


Surface analysis 00z 29 august

Surface Analysis, 00z, 29 August

Possible PRE


850 mb analysis 00z on 29 august

850 mb Analysis, 00z on 29 August


Parcel trajectories into the mid atlantic coastal region

Parcel Trajectories into the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Region

Danny’s Track


Danny summary

Danny Summary

  • Danny fit into the AR track for potential PRE-producing systems

  • Two distinct heavy rain episodes took place on the periphery of Danny’s influence

    • Event that most resembled a PRE took place just offshore, 28-29 August

    • Heavy rain/flash flooding that occurred in the Baltimore area appeared to lack sufficient moisture contributions from Danny or jet interactions

  • Lack of a direct moisture connection with the TC, as well as a relatively cool stable air mass, seemed to protect much of the Northeastern U.S. from excessive rainfall


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