Run-Timing Changes and Resilience in Auke Creek Salmon

1. Run-Timing Changes and Resilience in Auke Creek Salmon David Tallmon1,2,3 & Ryan Kovach2,4 1Biology and Marine Biology Program (UAS) 2Institute of Arctic Biology (UAF) 3School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences (UAF) 4Biology and Wildlife (UAF)

2. Salmon Value to Alaska • Important Cultural & Regional Icon • Massive Ecological Value – marine nutrient & energy input, and bioturbation • Huge Economic Impact > $3 billion commercial fishery (2000-09)

3. Important Subsistence Species(ADFG 1999)

4. How are salmon changing in response to climate change? • Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase.

5. How are salmon changing in response to climate change? • Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase. Is salmon run timing changing with warming?

6. How are salmon changing in response to climate change? • Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase. Is salmon run timing changing with warming? What are the effects on salmon availability?

7. How are salmon changing in response to climate change? • Temperatures are increasing and will continue to increase. Is salmon run timing changing with warming? What are the effects on salmon availability? Is salmon abundance resilient to warming?

8. Auke Creek Site • NOAA permanent weir • ~40 yrs detailed data • Sockeye, pink, coho runs (Dollys & cuts, too) Outreach pic

9. Auke Creek is warming. Joyce (2011)

10. Is juvenile run timing changing?

11. Is juvenile run timing changing? Yes, it’s earlier. sockeye coho later pinks earlier Dollys Cuts

12. Is spawning run timing changing?

13. Is spawning run timing changing? Yes, it’s earlier. later earlier

14. Most runs are earlier (except sockeye adults). later 19 days earlier

15. What are the effects of changes in run timing on availability?

16. Adult salmon availability has decreased! Coho Pink (even & odd) Sockeye

17. Are salmon abundances resilient to changes? Yes, so far. pink sockeye coho λ = 1 is stableNone significantly different from stable.

18. What does the best dataset in Alaska say about salmon response to climate change?

19. What does the best dataset in Alaska say about salmon response to climate change? Is salmon run timing changing with warming? Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating and immigrating earlier.

20. What does the best dataset in Alaska say about salmon response to climate change? Is salmon run timing changing with warming? Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating and immigrating earlier. What are the effects on salmon availability? Smaller window in which ecosystem service available for harvest.

21. What does the best dataset in Alaska say about salmon response to climate change? Is salmon run timing changing with warming? Yes – most juveniles and adults emigrating and immigrating earlier. What are the effects on salmon availability? Smaller window in which ecosystem service available for harvest. Is salmon abundance resilient to warming? Yes. So far all salmon spp. have stable abundances.

22. Unknowns. • How widespread is earlier emigration and immigration? • Is availability decreasing throughout SE Alaska? • What other factors influence salmon availability?

23. Current efforts. • Examining “run timing” genes in pink salmon…are they evolving or adjusting? • Examining abiotic and biotic factors that best explain pink and coho run timing  beyond stream temperature. • Examine regional patterns in salmon run timing and abundance  regional database. • Examine archaeological data for historic Alaska Native weirs in Southeast Alaska  regional database.

24. Acknowledgements • EPSCoR • NOAA – John Joyce, Jesse Echave, Gerry Taylor • UAF - Mark Lindberg, Milo Adkinson, Tony Gharrett • ADFG Sustainable Salmon Fund (Project # 45965) • North Pacific Research Board (Project # 1110)

25. Lots of variation in phenotypic variance trends. sockeye pinks coho