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Facility Vulnerability Analysis. Objectives Predict the Response of a Facility to Attack by Military or Terrorist Weapons Develop Response Models for use as Targeting Aids. Program Started in 1995 Primary Sponsor DTRA Other Current Sponsors: DIA NRC.

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Facility Vulnerability Analysis

  • Objectives

    • Predict the Response of a Facility to Attack by Military or Terrorist Weapons

    • Develop Response Models for use as Targeting Aids

  • Program Started in 1995

  • Primary Sponsor DTRA

  • Other Current Sponsors:

    • DIA

    • NRC


Visual Interactive Site Analysis CodeVISAC

Integrates the Following Functions in one Code

  • Facility Kill Probability

  • Facility Core Melt Probability

  • Facility Downtime Estimates

  • Facility Model Editor

  • Event/Fault Tree Editor

  • Provides:

  • Facility Damage/Consequence Contour Maps

  • VERY FAST “what if”Analysis for Various Accident/Incident Scenarios





Visual interactive site analysis code
Visual Interactive Site Analysis Code Technology

for Facility Vulnerability Analysis


User describes attack incidents
User Describes Attack (Incidents) Technology

  • Defined Accident – specific systems fail

  • Component Damage – individual components fail with specified probabilities

  • Region Damage – all components in an area fail

  • Quick Blast – place any size charge, weapon, truck bomb, etc. inside or outside of a building using TNT, C4,, etc.

  • Multiple incidents can be specified with any combination or timing


Facility models basic and detailed
Facility Models – Basic and Detailed Technology

  • Geometry

    • Based on BRL-CAD format

    • Facilities consist of buildings made of concrete walls

    • Critical components inside or outside buildings

  • Logic

    • Critical components grouped together into fault trees for each system

    • Event trees group together the systems and evaluate consequences

    • Multiple aspects can be examined at once (facility kill, core damage, fire, etc)




Midsize Technology

Pressurized

Water

Reactor

(PWR)


Reprocessing Plant Technology

MBLM Code

Aerosol Release

Resulting Temperatures and Pressures




Visac output
VISAC Output Technology

  • Consequence probabilities for each event tree

  • Failure probabilities for each fault tree system

  • Facility downtime estimate

  • Release information (for HPAC)

  • Lists of walls broken and hole size estimates

An Example

  • 3500 lbs TNT truck bomb outside of control room

  • 97.7% probability of a large early release

  • Facility would be unable to operate for 4 months



Grids of blast points threat contours
Grids of Blast Points – Threat Contours Technology

  • Each library facility has 3 pre-calculated grids

  • User can search grids for specific outcomes

  • User can generate new grids for his own plants

  • Grid points can be used as incidents (attack points)

  • VISAC has automated grid creation for new plants


Three ways to use visac
Three Ways To Use VISAC Technology

  • View library facilities and their pre-calculated grids of blast points

    • use viewers to explore the geometry and logic

    • search grids for specific outcomes

  • Run “what-if” scenarios using different attacks on the library facilities

    • accidents, component damage, bomb blasts

    • find release probabilities, facility kill & downtime

  • Create a new facility based on the library model and add new buildings

    • model any aspect of facility operation

    • calculate grids of blast points

    • use just like a library facility


Facility vulnerability program

Facility Vulnerability Program Technology

Bob Morris

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

P.O. Box 2008

Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6363

Phone: 865-576-5878

Fax: 865-574-9619

[email protected]


Back up slides

BACK UP Slides Technology


Model Fidelity Effect on Facility Vulnerability Results Technology

Building Level vs. Component Level Models

Building Level

Component Level







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