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Fallacies 2. Is the evidence reliable?. Appeal to Probability. Just because something is possible does not mean it is true. Sample Student Homework.
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Appeal to Probability Just because something is possible does not mean it is true.
Sample Student Homework “‘Ancient Aliens’ is misleading because on the show they claim that alien technology was needed to move the stones for the pyramids. But people could have moved the stones in some other way.”
Appeal to Probability • The show says there was only one way to move the stones: aliens. • Maybe there were other ways to do it. • Therefore, there were other ways to do it. • Therefore, the show is misleading: there is not only one way to move the stones.
Give Me Another Explanation! You cannot prove that the show is misleading by saying maybe it is saying something false. You have to show that it is saying something false.
Argument from Ignorance “Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” – Carl Sagan Just because there is no evidence that something is true, does not mean that it is false. Just because there is no evidence that something is false, does not mean that it is true.
Argument from Ignorance The argument from ignorance goes like this: “You can’t prove that God doesn’t exist. Therefore God exists.” It assumes that because there is no argument against a position, that that position must be correct.
Shifting the Burden of Proof A similar fallacy is “shifting the burden of proof”. It goes: “God exists. If you think otherwise, prove that he doesn’t!” Here, you make a claim (“God exists”) but instead of giving evidence for it, you require that your opponent give evidence for the opposite.
Harry Potter • Best selling book series in history. • Highest grossing film series in history. • “Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban” won the Hugo Award for best Novel.
“Just Asking Questions” Frequently, conspiracy theorists will use a subtle form of the argument from ignorance: Is X true? I don’t know. I’m just asking questions. [No arguments are presented for thinking X is not true] [Audience invited to conclude that X is true.]
“Just Asking Questions” Some people think that George W. Bush was responsible for the 9/11 terrorist attack in the US. Was he responsible? Was the US Government trying to invent a reason to attack Israel’s enemies? I don’t know. I’m just asking questions.
Argument from Incredulity Similar to the argument from ignorance is the argument from incredulity. This happens on “Ancient Aliens” all the time: • I can’t believe that X is true. • Therefore, X is false.
Ad Hominem You cannot show that someone’s claim is false by showing that they are a bad person or that they are not an expert. You can show that we have no reason to believe them. But to show that their claims are false we need to have evidence that their claims are false.
Erich von Däniken • Author of Chariots of the Gods in 1968. • One of the first to argue for ancient astronauts/ ancient aliens. • Inspired many of the people on the show.
Erich von Däniken • Left school at 19. • Does not have a college degree. • Does not have a PhD. • Has never received honors, recognition, or rewards from experts. • Has been convicted of fraud twice.
Appeal to Motive A version of the ad hominem fallacy is the appeal to motive. You cannot show that a claim is false by showing that the person making the claim has a strong reason to believe it or a strong reason to make you believe it.
Sample Homework “‘Ancient Aliens’ is misleading because in the show, they present Erich von Däniken arguing for the claim that aliens visited the Earth long ago. But von Däniken wants you to believe that so you will buy his books and make him rich.”
Another Example: AGW Conspiracy Global warming “is a multibillion-dollar worldwide industry, created by fanatically anti-industrial environmentalists, supported by scientists peddling scare stories to chase funding, and propped up by compliant politicians and the media.”
Distribution Fallacy The distribution fallacy is committed when we assume that individuals have the properties of groups they belong to. Lingnan has an excellent philosophy department. I am a philosopher at Lingnan._________ Therefore, I am an excellent philosopher.
Distribution Fallacy Kooks and quacks will often try to make their theories sound better “by association”: • Having a PhD. • Making one’s work sound “science-y”. • Debating serious scholars. • Associating oneself with respectable institutions (Stanford, Smithsonian, etc.)
For the “whole” of Hong Kong kindergartens, there is enough space for all children to go to school. • Demand is for 168,000 spaces, but there are a total of 241,000 spaces. • Therefore, there is no shortage of space in kindergartens.
Distribution Fallacy Just because there is enough space in the whole system does not mean there is enough space in the high-demand districts. Mainlanders want to go to kindergarten in the northern districts, because that’s closer to China. These kindergarten seats have much lower availability.
Genetic Fallacy The genetic fallacy seeks to evaluate a claim on the basis of its origin. So, for example, someone might say, “Eugenics is wrong, because the Nazis began it and did horrible things for its sake.” Eugenics may be wrong, but the fact that the Nazis began it is irrelevant to this claim.
False Balance Often newspapers will present two sides of an issue equally to provide “balance.” Objectivity is good and biased reporting is bad. But it is the responsibility of the news media to present things in a way that accurately reflects what we know to be true.
False Balance False balance happens when: • An issue is presented as having two sides when no knowledgeable experts disagree. • Two sides to an issue are presented equally when one side has much more evidence than the other. • One side is allowed to present fallacious arguments designed to mislead without the reporter(s) indicating this.
Fallacy of the Mean Candidate 1: “We should raise taxes on everyone” Candidate 2: “We should cut social programs” Therefore, Compromise: We should raise taxes on everyone a little and cut social programs a little.
The Fallacy of the Mean “Lol, debunked. Not exactly. There are always two sides to a coin and the truth usually lies in the middle. Of course not everything on Ancient Aliens is totally true. Of course, not everything on this video is unbiased either.” – internet commenter Darkeus regarding Chris White’s film “Ancient Aliens Debunked”
TuQuoque “Tuquoque” is Latin for “you too”. It’s a defense of an invalid argument that goes: “You’ve made a similar argument. So you cannot criticize the flaws in this argument.” Just because other people are doing it doesn’t make it right!
Appeal to Popularity “Millions of people around the world believe that we have been visited in the past by extraterrestrial beings.” – Narrator from “Ancient Aliens”
Appeal to Popularity “What I am saying is that there is doubt. Millions of people believe in God in the US, so to teach to kids (again under the age of 18) only one side of something that ‘could be’ something else is misleading.” – comment from the internet
Appeal to Popularity “Indian astrology is famous in the entire world. From ancient time astrology has been improving in this country. Millions of people believe in astrology with which the way of life can be smooth. Proper guidance can make a person able to combat against the problematic situations and unexpected happenings. A good astrologer can really give this guidance.” – article about astrologers in Delhi
Appeal to Tradition “[India] is also home to some of the oldest records of ancient technologies. Ancient Sanskrit texts, dating back as far as 6,000 BC describe in varied, but vivid detail, flying machines called ‘vimanas’” – Narrator from “Ancient Aliens”
Appeal to Tradition “With a history of more than 2000 years, Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) has formed a unique system to diagnose and cure illness.” – eastday.com
Not Fallacies The following things are not fallacies: • Having traditions • Being popular • Lacking evidence
Appeal to Tradition Some people have the “traditional” belief that keeping a pet turtle slows down your business and ruins your fortune. There are lots of reasons they might have for this: belief in sympathetic magic, confirmation bias, hearsay, etc. None of these are good reasons.
Appeal to Tradition But just because someone has a traditional belief that is false and held for bad reasons does not mean they’ve committed the ‘appeal to tradition’ fallacy. The fallacy only happens when someone presents the fact that this is a traditional belief as a reason to believe it.
Appeal to Tradition “Marriage has traditionally been between a man and a woman, therefore, gay marriage should not be allowed.”
Appeal to Popularity Many things are popular and widely believed. Some of them are false – like the belief that aliens visited ancient humans on Earth. This does not mean that the ‘appeal to popularity’ fallacy has been committed!
Bad Reasons Bad reasons to believe in aliens: • Erich von Daniken told you to. • That gold thingy sort of looks like a spaceship. • Ancient Indian texts talk about flying chariots called ‘vimanas.’ • No one could build the pyramids without the help of alien technology. • It’s possible for aliens to come and visit.
Appeal to Popularity If those are the reasons you believe aliens came to Earth, then you are not committing the appeal to popularity fallacy – even if your belief is a popular one! To commit the fallacy, you have to argue that the reason to believe in aliens is that lots of other people believe in aliens.
Appeal to Popularity “In history, Buddhists talk about karma. Christians talk about deeds. Taoists talk about te. Other spiritual beings talk about virtue. These are different words for the same thing. Millions of people believe in karma. Millions of people desperately want to clear their own karma.” -- The Power of Soul, Zhi Gang Sha (Also note equivocation)
