Live your life. Create your destiny.

1. Live your life. Create your destiny. South African Higher Education student enrolment & retentionMarié FowlerTshwane University of Technology

2. Strategic Management Supportl Intake in HE in South Africa (2003) • Total state institutional undergrad enrolment: approx. 717 793 • Graduates: 109 373 (15.2%) • Only 15% of students ever graduate!* • Statistics show that only 22% of tertiary students graduate after 5 years.” Dep. Ed. Minister, Surty (27/02) • Problem: There are as many graduation and retention statistics as there are studies and/or reports of those studies

3. Retention problematic in South African HE • Enrolments seriously inflated by repeat students with little or no prospect of graduation • Financial aid problems add to dilemmas • Only 15% of students speak English 1st language, often the language of instruction (many instructors lecture in a language not their own) • Good news: Student Affairs getting organized professionally nationally & are committed to progress.

4. Strategic Management Support “

5. Strategic Management Support HERD-SA Kellogg Grant and Project Assist decision makers/practitioners to begin measuring retention rates (SA def’s) & by developing a culturally appropriate methodology for reviewing & presenting meaningful data. Develop a profile of student characteristics from data collected/identified and determine what, if any, relationships the data may have to student retention and attrition.

6. Strategic Management Support Direction of Kellogg Grant & Project Focus mainly on first year students; yet will make methodology available for use at all levels of tertiary education. Share findings with institutional and governmental agencies adhering to confidentiality guarantees.

7. l Strategic Management Support HERD-SA Project Leaders Roger B. Ludeman (USA) HERD-SA Project Director Email: herdsa@hotmail.com Prof. Amanda Lourens, HERD-SA Project Assistant Director North-West University Email: Amanda.Lourens@nwu.ac.za Rosemary Hayes (University of Oklahoma) Consortium for Student Retention Data Exchange Email: rhayes@ou.edu http://www.ou.edu/csrde/index.html

8. Strategic Management Support HERDSA PROJECT Institutions taking part Basics and definitions Methodology Results

9. Strategic Management Support Participating institutions • Tshwane University of Technology • Wits University • North West University • Central University of Technology • University of Johannesburg (Comprehensive) • University of Cape Town

10. Result of 2004 Merger of 3 Technikons* Biggest residential university in SA 52 000 students on 8 campuses covering 3 provinces (states) 4.5% International students (2006) 88% Black**, 12% white (2006) *Technikons = Universities of Technology ** Black = black, coloured & asian Tshwane University of Technology

11. Founded in 1922 Total enrolment: 24 652 (2006) Highly rated research capacity Race %: 66% Black, 34% White 7% international students Gender breakdown: 50/50 University of Witwatersrand

12. Result of a merger (black & white inst) Approximately 38 596 students (2005) 91% undergrad, 7% post grad. 39% male, 61% female 34% White, 66% Black North-West University

13. Head count (2006) 10 447 Race %: 82 Black, 18 White International students: 5% Central University of Technology, Free State

14. Headcount: 24 521 (2006) Race: 60% Black, 40% White International students 7% University of the Free State

15. Headcount: 42 655 (2006) 73% Black, 27% White 3.7% international students University of Johannesburg(A comprehensive university)

16. Headcount: 21 658 Gender: about 50/50 Race: White 45%, Black 28% 14% Coloured, 8% Indian International student % 19.6 University of Cape Town

17. Strategic Management Support Basic underlying factors& problematic • Mergers affected almost all • Three types of university • Years of survey: 2000 – 2003 • First time entering students as target group • Confidentiality • Data extraction: HEMIS & own systems

18. Strategic Management Support Retention Definitions Baseline Enrolment: First time entering students enrolled for a 3-year diploma/degree in the year under consideration. Second year dropout rate: Students of the baseline enrolment cohort who did not register (enrol) for the 2nd year of study nor cancelled their studies and did not graduate. Graduation rate: The cumulative number of students from the baseline cohort who received a qualification within or before the specified year.

19. First time entering undergraduate or prediplomate (HEMIS definition):   The person (a) is effectively registered in the collection period for an undergraduateor prediplomate course and (b) in the past has not been effectively registered in any higher education course at the institution or any other higher education institution. Definitions (continued)

20. Strategic Management Support Methodology * Cohort studies (Track progress over a number of years) * Profiles of ‘stayers’ and dropouts Use existing demographic/personal data obtained from admissions/ registration/financial aid forms. HEMIS data can also be used for this step. (Variables include e.g: pass rate, age, gender, race, citizenships, financial aid/ bursary status, previous year activity, grade 12 type & aggregate, course load)

21. Strategic Management Support Variables used for phase 2(Obtained from HEMIS) • Year of registration • Institution code (as in HEMIS) • Student number • First time entering status • FTE degree credits passed (enrolments/ year) • HEMIS qualification type • Birth date • Gender • Race • Citizenship (as reported in HEMIS) • CESM category

22. Strategic Management Support Variables (continued) • Financial aid • Residence • Previous year activity (as per HEMIS) • Matric type • Grade 12 aggregate • Dropout status • Course load • Home postal code • Home language • Qualification code

23. All Institutions – Phase I: Enrolment, Dropouts and Graduates of 2000–1 cohorts

24. All Institutions – Phase I: Enrolment, Dropouts and Graduates of 2002–3 cohorts

25. All Institutions – Phase I: Dropout & Graduation Rates • Cohorts used in calculations: • The overall 2nd year dropout rate: all cohorts • The overall 4th year graduation rate: only the 2000 - 2002 cohorts (when the data was extracted, the 2003 cohort had not yet had 4 full years to graduate)

26. Descriptive Statistics: Phase II data

27. Strategic Management Support Next plans of the project • Bring in other institutions to participate • Utilize pilot institutions as “consultants” to assist new institutions to adopt new data analysis profiles. • Share aggregate profiles as needed. Remember: data belongs to the institution. • Introduce additional ideas for further data analysis or research. • Develop CD-ROM with structures needed for new institutions to enter their data and produce their profiles of stayers and leavers

28. Strategic Management Support HERD-SA Kellogg Grant and Project Assist decision makers/practitioners to begin measuring retention rates (SA def’s) & by developing a culturally appropriate methodology for reviewing & presenting meaningful data. Develop a profile of student characteristics from data collected/identified and determine what, if any, relationships the data may have to student retention and attrition.

29. Strategic Management Support Future Needs and Ideas • Work to create ongoing retention research for all of South African tertiary education • Develop an online clearinghouse of SA student retention studies • Look at interventions designed to combat attrition

30. Strategic Management Support Thank you Marié Fowler fowlerm@tut.ac.za