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Yi Article

Yi Article. ISSUE. Why the huge and sudden drop recorded in 1992 survey? Is it correct? What might have effected its outcome? Can it be corrected?. A. Why 1992 Survey might have increased underreporting. 1. Background: Coverage of Study All China Covered

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Yi Article

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  1. Yi Article

  2. ISSUE Why the huge and sudden drop recorded in 1992 survey? • Is it correct? • What might have effected its outcome? • Can it be corrected? China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  3. A. Why 1992 Survey might have increased underreporting 1. Background: Coverage of Study • All China Covered • 385,000 people or 0.35 per 1000 women • 50% Women of reproductive age China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  4. A. Why 1992 Survey might have increased underreporting 2. Three Unique Features -- purpose to guarantee quality of results, unfortunately might have in fact biased results -- • Enumerators • Questionnaire • Register China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  5. 1) Enumerators • In past Surveys: Not FPC (Family Planning Commission) personnel • For example: 1990 census generally were not FPC employees • Many not highly skilled – high school students, retirees,… • When FPC employees used, used outside area they administered China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  6. Change for Study 1992 study exclusively used FPC workers and they checked areas that they administered • Why such approach • Cut costs • Locals well acquainted with situation, harder to hide information from them China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  7. Results Although promised punishment would not occur to FPC officials if results show changes from past, trust was low • Local Officials already caught in a lie may need to continue to lie China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  8. Why low trust??? Past Problem of 1990 Census Example in Anhiu Province for 1990 census stated: • Truth to be unpunished -- please report the truth • However after count conducted law was changed and punishment applied • sorry, we caught you • Typical of post-Liberation government programs China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  9. 2) Questionnaire Issues (how it was written) • Unplanned births highlighted in 1992 survey (tip-off) • Result -- least likely to report most recent unplanned birth when fine not yet paid • Focus on unplanned births could cause officials to suggest lying as the correct strategy -- long history of telling the Govt. what it wants to hear China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  10. 3) Title of survey made it look like permanent register Increase fear level of respondents • No one wants to get on permanent list • “the nail that sticks out gets hammered” China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  11. C. "One Vote Down" Campaign 1991 -- Another problem • Officials made personally responsible for targets • Basic reaction -- cover one's own backside -- villagers explicitly asked to lie China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  12. D. Empirical Evidence of Underreporting 1. Studies demonstrates underreporting close to 30% -- see 1993 survey as example 2. Systematic errors (bias) apparent by reviewing past surveys China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  13. Summary of Data -- note trends • Underreporting • Systematic errors (bias) • Matching-up Catching-up Phenomena • Special 1992 Errors China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  14. Before 1992 Survey: Matching-up/Catching-up Phenomena Latervalues always bigger than initial value (note each row) • Why? Perhaps fine already paid or dealt with in other manner • Officials might benefit from higher "corrected" numbers and lower "false" current values China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  15. 1992 Survey Seems to have special new problems, • Perhaps result of "one vote down" and other factors • Errors even in earlier data starting with 1988 • note values are even lower than previous China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  16. So What’s Correct??? • Can we determine actual values??? • Yi presents his methodology for doing just that (we will accept his method and look at his results) China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  17. D. Yi’s Adjustment of 1992 results Based on 1993 study adjust upward 1992 results by about 30% • Note error greater in latest years • Note greater error in rural areas (see paper) China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  18. Conclusions 1. Fertility Seriously underreported in early 1990s Reasons include: • pressure to reach target • one vote down campaign • questionnaire title and design • selection of enumerators China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  19. Conclusions… 2. After adjustment true total fertility for 1991-92 at or slightly below replacement level Reasons: • More implementation of family planning post 1991 • Economic development • Move from rural to urban areas China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

  20. Final Thought • As a Confucian Culture, Why is there such difficulty in determining the truth? China Demographics (IIASA 2008)

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