1 / 22

New Hampshire Economic Outlook

New Hampshire Economic Outlook. Ross Gittell Chancellor Community College System of NH Vice President and Forecast Manager New England Economic Partnership (NEEP) . US Outlook….. continues to dominate the economic outlook for New Hampshire.

ama
Download Presentation

New Hampshire Economic Outlook

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. New Hampshire Economic Outlook Ross Gittell Chancellor Community College System of NH Vice President and Forecast Manager New England Economic Partnership (NEEP)

  2. US Outlook….. continues to dominate the economic outlook for New Hampshire There remains concern and uncertainty in the global and national economies that have impact on the New Hampshire outlook Current job growth is enough to keep the economy moving forward, but not enough to reduce unemployment significantly Uncertainty remains and dampens business confidence and leaves the NH economy unsettled After stalling in late 2012 and early 2013 with hangover from fiscal cliff concerns.. the economy is expected to grow at more significant rates helped by improving housing market and consumer confidence

  3. Slow recovery from recession in NH After decline in employment less than US average in recession, NH slow to recover jobs lost during recession Usually a leader coming out of recession, now a laggard State ranked 42nd of 50 states over last year in job growth on percentage change basis, less than 1 percent growth (.2%)

  4. NH Unemployment Rate getting closer to US average. 3rd worst of 50 states performance in change in unemployment over last 12 months

  5. NH and New England Outlook: Slow Growth Expected to Continue New Hampshire is expected to have employment growth just below the U.S. average at 1.1 percent All the New England states are expected to have below the US average growth (1.2 percent) in employment in 2013 Employment growth for NH is not expected to be at 2 percent until 2015 … and then is not expected to rise much higher NH unemployment rate is expected to remain below the U.S. average, but linger above or near 5% until 2014 The expectation is that NH will not return to its pre-recession employment level until late 2014

  6. Total Employment % Changes (Annualized): US, NHand NE, 2008-Q1 to 2016-Q4. NH and NE follow US recovery. Growth reaches 2% in 2014

  7. Sector Employment Trough-to-2016Q2 Percent Changes. Professional & Business Services, Leisure, Construction and Technology lead job growth

  8. Housing from Headwind into Tailwind. Median Home Prices Trough-to-End of Forecast. NH housing price appreciation expected to be below US average. NH prices expected to be still below peak at end of 2016

  9. Employment Recovery Trough to 2016 as a % of the Employment Decline from Peak. NH (and also VT & MA) along with US expected to get back jobs lost during recession and then some. Not true in Maine and RI

  10. Unemployment Peak and End of Forecast. Rate declines are expected with more significant employment growth. Back down to 4% in NH by end of forecast period. VT and NH expected to continue with lowest rates in the region

  11. How can the NH economic outlook be improved?

  12. Workforce skills out of Alignment with the Economy • Northeast Hires/Openings Ratio is lowest of all regions - implies relatively pronounced labor mismatch. • Opening rate the same as US average but hiring rate one-third lower. • Opening rates highest in professional & business services and information

  13. Education out of alignment with Economy • National and NH surveys showing that about 40 percent of the college graduates available to employers do not have the necessary applied skills to meet their needs • Nearly one-third of manufacturing companies are suffering from some level of skills shortages • Need to better align both emerging and seasoned workforce with the workforce that industry needs to compete effectively

  14. Strengthen the connection between post-secondary education and the economy • Important for the economy, the competitiveness of NH industries and for NH students and workers … • Focus on • STEM fields critical for economic advantage to support high tech, advanced manufacturing and other industries. • NH currently ranks 45th of 50 states in percentage of Bachelors degrees in Science or Engineering. This is down from 20th a decade ago • The largest group of job opportunities over the next decade will be in “middle-skilled” jobs (about 40%) these workers have more than HS less than Bachelors degree

  15. Community College System of NH efforts to increase post-secondary matriculation will be highly beneficial to NH economy • 64% of NH jobs will require post-secondary education by 2018 and currently only 46% of NH adults have post-secondary degree (Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce) • Population inflows to New Hampshire have slowed • This means increased importance of educating each and every one of “our own” • Efforts can be targeted to NH high schools which have low post secondary matriculation rates currently and also adult cohorts such as those without college degree and long term unemployed. • Currently less than 60% (58.1%) of NH HS grads go on to college

  16. Most Recent Graduates from NH High Schools Intention to 2-year colleges, Top Schools in NH

  17. Bottom List of High Schools graduates intending to go to 2-yr Colleges

  18. CCs as Pipeline to Bachelors Nationally but not so much in NH • Nationally 47% of public undergraduate enrollment is at community colleges as compared to New Hampshire where community colleges account for only 28%.  • Nationally 45% of all students who finished a four-year degree in 2010-11 had previously enrolled at a two-year college. This is 50% in STEM fields. • In NH the figure is one-half the national average, just 22% compared to 45%, second lowest among states after Alaska. 

  19. Community Colleges and NH’s Economic Future CCs are important bridges to workforce and to Bachelors degree for increasing number of learners… for affordability and economic alignment CCs are community centered and community serving .. Positioned to support industry clusters Serve traditional student population, and those realigning their education with the economy CCSNH is flexible and responsive to the needs of NH students and workers and the economy/market Earnings in NH for Associate Degree holders ($43K on average). 28 % higher than HS (AA to BA is 20%) . 25% of Bachelors holders earn less than average Associates Articulation agreements with UNH and SNHU enable transition to Bachelors. Focused on STEM fields

  20. What could be the impact of “slipping” over the fiscal cliff?

  21. Estimates of Fiscal Cliff Federal Defense and non-Defense Expenditure Decline as % of GDP. NH not as negatively impacted as other NE states

  22. Summary The hope is that now (after the elections) there will be progress made to more rational economic policy making in US and New Hampshire and that improved housing market will help to restore consumer confidence and bolster the broader economy NEEP does expect the NH and New England economies over the next four years will be better than the last four years Do not, however, anticipate a strong recovery… and expect continued economic challenges that will need to be addressed to get NH back on stronger economic path

More Related