Malawi Case Study Political Economy Determinants of Economic Growth. Effective States for Inclusive Development Seminar – Cape Town 2 8 th April 2014 Jonathan Said [email protected] Objective. To present findings of Malawi Case Study. Overview. Introduction
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Malawi’s GDP per Capita (1955-2010), US dollar prices, and breaks filtered from 4 possible Bai-Perron Breaks
2nd Growth Regime
1st Growth Regime
Source: Penn World tables 7.1 – PPP Converted GDP Per Capita (Chain Series), at 2005 constant prices
Percentage of Exports and GDP per Capita, US Dollar Prices
Source: Penn World tables- PPP Converted GDP per Capita (Chain Series), at 2005 constant prices and World Bank World Development Indicators
Economic Complexity Index, Malawi
Source: The Observatory of Economic Complexity. Dotted lines represent Malawi’s growth breaks. Note: 2.5 represents maximum level of complexity & -2.5 the minimum.
In conclusion Malawi has failed to structurally transform in past 50 years: remains highly dependent on export of tobacco (58% in 2010); productive economy still in infancy
ESID Growth Framework influenced industrial policy thinking by:
Proposed industrial policy based on: