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MIDDLE EAST JET FUEL CONFERENCE (MEJET 2004) 12 – 13 MAY, 2004 JET FUEL TRADING IN THE GULF REGION - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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MIDDLE EAST JET FUEL CONFERENCE (MEJET 2004) 12 – 13 MAY, 2004 JET FUEL TRADING IN THE GULF REGION. 5. PRESENTED BY : ZAKARIA SULAIMAN. CONTENTS. WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH PASSENGER TRAFFIC WORLD AND GULF REGION DEMAND GULF PRODUCTION AND BALANCES GCC COUNTRIES EXPORTS OF JET/KERO

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MIDDLE EAST JET FUEL CONFERENCE

(MEJET 2004)

12 – 13 MAY, 2004

JET FUEL TRADING IN THE GULF REGION

5

PRESENTED BY : ZAKARIA SULAIMAN


Contents

CONTENTS

  • WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH

  • PASSENGER TRAFFIC

  • WORLD AND GULF REGION DEMAND

  • GULF PRODUCTION AND BALANCES

  • GCC COUNTRIES EXPORTS OF JET/KERO

  • JET/KERO BULK AND INTO-PLANE PRICES


Slide 1 world economic growth

SLIDE 1WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH (%)

2000 2003 2005

USA 3.8 2.9 4.0

LATIN AMERICA 4.5 1.0 3.8

W. EUROPE 3.6 0.8 2.4

E. EUROPE 3.8 3.3 4.0

FSU 9.1 6.1 4.6

ATLANTIC BASIN 3.9 2.0 3.4

MIDDLE EAST 5.6 3.7 3.6

ASIA PACIFIC 4.6 3.9 3.7

TOTAL WORLD 4.1 2.5 3.5

SOURCE : PEL


Slide 2 world economic growth by country

SLIDE 2WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH (%)BY COUNTRY

SOURCE : PEL


Slide 3 passenger traffic passengers kilometers performed billion

SLIDE 3PASSENGER TRAFFIC PASSENGERS – KILOMETERS PERFORMED (BILLION)

SOURCE : ICAO


Slide 4 world wide and gcc passengers traffic million

SLIDE 4WORLD WIDE AND GCC PASSENGERS TRAFFIC(MILLION)

SOURCE : ICAO


Slide 5 world demand for jet fuel kero million bpd

SLIDE 5WORLD DEMAND FOR JET FUEL/KERO(MILLION BPD)

2000 2003 2005

ASIA PACIFIC 2.65 2.60 2.74

MIDDLE EAST 0.36 0.36 0.37

ATLANTIC BASIN 3.37 3.25 3.44

TOTAL WORLD 6.38 6.21 6.55

SOURCE : PEL


Slide 6 gulf region demand for jet fuel kero mbpd

SLIDE 6GULF REGION DEMAND FOR JET FUEL/KERO(MBPD)

2000 2003 2005

BAHRAIN 8.4 8.9 9.2

IRAN 184.0 168.0 158.0

IRAQ 32.0 35.0 50.0

KUWAIT 11.0 11.3 11.5

OMAN 4.0 4.9 5.3

QATAR 4.0 4.6 4.7

S. ARABIA 55.0 59.2 61.9

UAE 18.0 20.5 22.7

TOTAL GULF 318.0 312.4 323.2

SOURCE : FACTS


Slide 7 gulf region products demand mbpd

SLIDE 7GULF REGION PRODUCTS DEMAND(MBPD)

2000 2003 2005

LPG 379 542 715

NAPHTHA 99 150 209

GASOLINE 698 832 929

KERO/JET 318 312 323

GASOIL 1,055 1,109 1,136

FUEL OIL 651 826 910

OTHERS 127 139 149

TOTAL 3,327 3,911 4,371

SOURCE : FACTS


Slide 8 potential addition of refining units by 2008

SLIDE 8POTENTIAL ADDITION OF REFINING UNITS BY 2008

SOURCE : FACTS


Slide 9 production of jet fuel kero in the gulf region mbpd

SLIDE 9PRODUCTION OF JET FUEL/KERO IN THE GULF REGION(MBPD)

2003 2005 2008

BAHRAIN 52.0 48.1 55.0

IRAN 190.1 182.1 243.9

IRAQ 25.0 48.7 69.5

KUWAIT 193.6 194.1 212.5

OMAN 5.7 12.5 26.1

QATAR 19.3 20.8 33.0

S. ARABIA 185.0 209.0 249.1

UAE 124.5 141.6 160.4

TOTAL GULF 795.2 856.9 1,049.5

SOURCE : FACTS


Slide 10 jet fuel kero balance in the gulf region mbpd

SLIDE 10JET FUEL/KERO BALANCE IN THE GULF REGION(MBPD)

________________________________________________

PRODUCTION DEMAND EXPORT

________________________________________________

2003 795 312 490

2004 798 319 498

2005 857 323 535

2007 948 332 616

2008 1,049 344 706

2010 1,052 358 693

SOURCE : FACTS


Slide 11 gcc exports of jet kero

SLIDE 11GCC EXPORTS OF JET/KERO

SOURCE : GCC SECRETARIATE


Slide 12 bulk jet fuel kero prices

SLIDE 12BULK JET FUEL/KERO PRICES

SOURCE : PLATTS


Slide 13 jet kero flow from ag to cif nwe s pore arbitrage

SLIDE 13JET/KERO FLOW FROM AG TO CIF NWE & S’PORE(ARBITRAGE)

NWE

S’PORE

AG

SOURCE : PLATTS


Slide 14 jet a 1 into plane prices

SLIDE 14JET A-1 INTO PLANE PRICES

SOURCE : JET FUEL INTELLIGENCE


Slide 15 the reasons for high into plane prices in the gulf region

SLIDE 15THE REASONS FOR HIGH INTO-PLANEPRICES IN THE GULF REGION

1 - Gulf Region is a thin market in relation to the other major markets

2 - In US, Europe and Asia, volume is a price sensitive (more competition between airports in those major markets).

3 - Prices in major markets are more transparent than the Gulf. Jet Fuel is a commodity fuel whereas the Gulf is not.

4 - More players in the major markets than in the Gulf.

5 - Economic of refinery in the Gulf is tide to one source of crude i.e. M / E crude. Where in Europe, it is mostly influenced by North Sea/IPE Brent crude and in US by WTI / NYMEX.

6 - Refinery margins in the Gulf are poor relative to US, NWE or Far East.


Slide 16 conclusion

SLIDE 16CONCLUSION

Middle East Jet Fuel availability will continue to grow during this decade due to the increase in refinery investment and additional condensate splitting projects.

Majority of Jet Fuel export will continue to move to European destinations even if price differentials sometimes does not support such movement.

Product movement has been mostly governed by price hedging mechanism from the Gulf into Europe. Those mechanism are tide to expectation of higher price prospective in Europe due to seasonal demand.


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