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Operations Risk Management Planning Template for Underway Replenishment

Operations Risk Management Planning Template for Underway Replenishment. LCDR Jeffrey P. Cole, USN Dr Frank Noonan, WPI. Underway Replenishment (UNREP). At sea, re-supply of critical items is necessary for operational readiness. Dangerous activity.

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Operations Risk Management Planning Template for Underway Replenishment

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  1. Operations Risk Management Planning Templatefor Underway Replenishment LCDR Jeffrey P. Cole, USN Dr Frank Noonan, WPI

  2. Underway Replenishment (UNREP) • At sea, re-supply of critical items is necessary for operational readiness. • Dangerous activity. • Multiplicity of factors influence feasibility. • Go-No Go decision.

  3. US NAVY Mishap Data • Two collisions this FY • Mishap rate this FY > twice the Mishap rate from 1996 - 2000 • DOD property damages $101 million for FY00; FY96-FY99 $72 million • Fatalities 4; Major injuries 169 (FY 00) • Fatalities 15; Major injuries 897 (FY96-00)

  4. Operational Risk Management Process • Risk Identification • Risk Assessment • Risk Evaluation • Implementation • Monitor

  5. Levels for ORM • On the Run • Deliberate • In-Depth

  6. Scoring Model Methodology • Risk Index =  w i Risk Factor i • Risk Index Scale GA R -----------I---------- I----------

  7. Design Methodology • Prepare for Session with SMEs • Access Risk related Historical data • Navy Safety Center, Statistics Division • USCG, MSIS Data Base • Develop preliminary list of Necessary ‘GO’ Conditions • Develop preliminary Hierarchical Risk Inference Tree • Organize SMEs • Illustrate the End Product

  8. Illustrative ORM End ProductMEASURING RISK WITH THE GREEN AMBER RED (GAR) SURF OPERATIONS RISK ASSESSMENT -"CROSSING THE BAR" • The parameters listed below must be met before the 36' AMBAR may be operated in surf conditions for the purpose of executing a SAR case (or performing training). These parameters are identified in ALCOGARDONE 002/99 and include: • 1. A qualified RHI Surf Coxswain is operating the boat, and; • 2. The36'AMBARistheonlycapableresourceavailable,and; • 3. A backup Helo or MLB is en route (must actually be on scene during training), and; • 4. The mission is to save life exclusively (unless training), and, • 5. The surf is on average four feet but does not exceed 6 feet.

  9. Illustrative ORM End Product SCORE Supervision (Coxswain Experience): 6 5 4 3 2 1 ________ Qualified Above Average Exceptional    Crew Selection (Experience): 6 5 4 3 2 1 ________ Qualified Above Average Exceptional Crew Fitness/Fatigue (u/w hours in 6-81 seas/other limitations): 6 5 4 3 2 1 _________ 6 HRS 4-5 HRS 3-4 HRS 2-3 HRS 1-2 HRS < I HR TOTAL

  10. Design Methodology: Six Step Process for working with SMEs Step 1 Mishap Narratives Step 3 Construct Risk Factor Inference Tree Step 2 Prerequisites for ‘GO’ Step 4 Construct Factor Scales Step 5 Assess Factor Weights Step 6 Calibrate Model

  11. Step 1: Establish Contextual Understanding for the ORM Application • Review Historical UNREP Mishap Data • Frequency, Severity, Causality • Request Structured Storytelling on UNREPS • Successes, Mishaps, Near Misses

  12. Step 2: Develop List of Prerequisitesfor a ‘GO’ decision. • For UNREP: • Sea State < 5. • Not located within a VTSS, fairway, narrow channel and sufficient water depth. • Low congestion from other vessels. • Safety Brief conducted. • Winds/Seas < ± 30o off bow. • Propulsion/Steering System Operationally Ready. • Positive Slack for task time.

  13. Step 3: Construct the Risk Factor Inference Tree • Major categories • Task Difficulty • Environmental • Equipment Readiness • Manpower Readiness

  14. Step 3 (cont.): Task Difficulty Sub-factors • Time alongside. • # of receiving stations. • # of whole ship tasks.

  15. Step 3 (cont.): Environmental Sub-factors • Day/Night • Sea State ( 0-4) • Weather • Wind • Visibility

  16. Step 3 (cont.): Equipment Readiness Sub-factors • Reliability of Equipment for UNREP (based on failure rate) • Preventive Maintenance System (how well it passed recent PMS) • Level of Acceptable Equipment Substitutes

  17. Step 3 (cont.): Manpower Readiness Sub-factors • Training Level of UNREP Crews (based on % of qualified crew members) • Experience Level & Fatigue Level • CO, UNREP Crews, Helmsman, Conning Officer, Aft Steering Quartermaster, Safety Officer, Safety Observers. • Response Time of Ship’s Crews to Emergencies

  18. Step 4: Construct Scales for Risk Factors • Emphasize the Use of Objective Data whenever possible. (e.g. Current/Forecasted Wind Conditions 5 4 3 2 1 >25kts 20-25kts 15-20kts 10-15kts <10kts ) • Make Subjective Scales Meaningful with specific examples of Max and Min points. • Use a Common Scale (i.e. 5, 7 or 9 point scales). • Difficulty in scaling can imply a prerequisite. • Convex/concave scales require decomposition.

  19. Step 5: Determine Weights for Risk Factors • Framing: A UNREP related mishap just occurred. Provide best guess on the relative likelihood of each factor being the cause. • Use Hierarchical Structures • Rank order factors • Pairwise comparisons.

  20. UNREP’s Relative Factor Weights • Major categories • Task Difficulty 16% • Environmental 10% • Equipment Readiness 33% • Manpower Readiness 40%

  21. UNREP’s Relative Factor Weights • Training Level of UNREP Crews 55% • Experience Level • CO 17% • UNREP Crews, Helmsman, Conning Officer, 18% Aft Steering Quartermaster, Safety Officer, Safety Observers. • Response Time of Ship’s Crews to Emergencies 10%

  22. UNREP’s Relative Factor Weights • Time alongside. 35% • # of receiving stations. 25% • # of whole ship tasks. 40%

  23. UNREP’s Relative Factor Weights • Day/Night 25% • Sea State ( 0-4) 30% • Weather • Wind 17% • Visibility 28%

  24. UNREP’s Relative Factor Weights • Reliability of Equipment for UNREP 65% (based on failure rate) • Preventive Maintenance System 12.5% (how well it passed recent PMS) • Level of Acceptable Equipment Substitutes 22.5%

  25. Scoring Model Methodology • Risk Index =  w i Risk Factor i • Risk Index Scale GA R -----------I---------- I----------

  26. Step 6: Calibrate Model for Go/No Go Threshold • UNREP Scenarios : SMEs construct narratives for a set of borderline Go/No Go UNREPs. • SMEs score risk factors for each scenario. • Calculate and average risk scores for scenarios.

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