ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION AND
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 33

ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION AND MONITORING OVER THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 60 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION AND MONITORING OVER THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON. Everaldo B. de Souza [email protected] Faculdade de Meteorologia Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA Belém-PA. Precipitation over South America. Obregon 2003. Precipitation over South America. Obregon 2003.

Download Presentation

ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION AND MONITORING OVER THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION AND

MONITORING OVER THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON

Everaldo B. de Souza

[email protected]

Faculdade de Meteorologia

Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA

Belém-PA


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Precipitation over South America

Obregon 2003


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Precipitation over South America

Obregon 2003


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

General circulation of the Atmosphere


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

The annual cycle


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

The Amazonian precipitation variability is related to the ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Pacific and Atlantic

monitoring indices


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

The unfavorable scenario

Souza, Kayano, Ambrizzi 2005


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

The favorable scenario

Souza, Kayano, Ambrizzi 2005


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

The intraseasonal variability

The beginning...

R.A. Madden and P.R. Julian. 1971: Detection of a 40–50 Day Oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 28, No. 5, pp. 702–708.

R.A. Madden and P.R. Julian. 1972: Description of Global-Scale Circulation Cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 Day Period. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 29, No. 6, pp. 1109–1123.


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Intraseasonal variability ( ~ 15-90 dias)

INTRASEASONAL

Mode

~ 30 – 70 days

planetary wave (MJO)

SUB-MONTHLY

Mode

~ 15 – 30 days

4-6 zonal wavenumber


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Evidences of the intraseasonal variability

Primavera

Primavera

Verão

Verão

Outono

Outono

Vitorino et al., 2006


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Evidences of the intraseasonal variability

Souza and Ambrizzi 2006


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Planetary

mechanism:

The

Madden-Julian

oscillation

Carvalho et al., 2004


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Planetary mechanism:

The Madden-Julian oscillation

Souza and Ambrizzi 2006


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Wavetrains from MJO

Cunningham and Cavalcanti, 2006


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Regional mechanisms within the MJO envelope: SACZ and ITCZ

CHI200; V200 OLR; qV SST;V1000

Dia –18

Dia –15

Dia –12

Dia –9

Dia -6


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Regional mechanisms within the MJO envelope: SACZ and ITCZ

CHI200; V200 OLR; qV SST;V1000

Dia –3

Dia 0

Dia +3

Dia +6

Dia +9


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Lets back in the time… we are in January 2007.

we need to produce the seasonal forecast for the Amazônia for the next the 3 months (Feb – Mar – Apr 2007)


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Results of the climate models for FEB – MAR – APR 2007

CPTEC: Kuo DERF RAS GRELL

NCEP ECMWF

IRI CPTEC ETA


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

The seasonal forecast:

The precipitation observed in Feb – Mar – Apr 2007


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

REDE ESTADUAL DE PREVISÃO CLIMÁTICA E HIDROMETEOROLÓGICA DO PARÁ

RPCH

EXECUTOR:

UFPA - Everaldo Souza (Coordenador)

CO-EXECUTORES:

SECTAM (NHM)

INMET (2º DISME)

SIPAM (CTO-BELÉM)

CONVÊNIO 3641/06


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Objetivo da RPCH:

Implementar e sistematizar um Rede integrada de pesquisa e previsão climática no Estado do Pará, focalizando a escala de tempo sazonal e intrasazonal, com vistas ao aprimoramento do conhecimento científico sobre a climatologia dinâmica tropical e, consequentemente, tanto melhorar como aumentar a capacidade de desenvolvimento das previsões das condições do clima regional sobre a Amazônia oriental.


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Metas físicas da RPCH:

  • Estudos observacionais;

  • Modelagem climática regional (RegCM3 for Amazon);

  • Análise e modelagem hidrometeorológica;

  • Implementação e consolidação das Discussões Mensais de Análise e Previsão Climática;

  • Estabelecer mecanismos de disseminação e aplicação da informação e previsão climática.


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Equipe da RPCH:

Estudantes e Bolsistas

Pós-Graduação:

Douglas

Marcio

João Paulo

Andressa

Saulo

Antonio

Denise

Graduação:

Ronaldo

Luis Felipe

Chymeny

Carlos

Sheila

Hildo

Alex

Everaldo

Aurora

Galdino

José Ricardo

Midori

Hernani

João Batista

Paulo Souza

Carvalho

Cattanio

Danilo

Isa

Julia

Renato

Bergsson

Rosilene

Tiago

Edson

Jorge

Rodrigo

Cesar

Marcio

Rolim

J.Raimundo

Alcy

Rai

Sandim

Paulo

Tiago

Reginaldo

Outras instituições:

Defesa Cilvil, ADA, UFRA

Pedro Martorano

Pacheco

Major Norat

Paula

Parcerias:

IEPA, INPE e IAG-USP

Alan

Assunção

Gandú

Pablo

Luciano

Tércio

Rose

Pessoal diretamete envolvido:

12 Doutores, 8 Mestres, ~25 Graduados, 2 Mestrandos, 2 Bolsas Iniciação Científica


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Climate change in the eastern Amazon…


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

Belém city ~ 1960

Belém city ~ 2000


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

MÉDIA ANUAL DA TEMPERATURA DO AR (ºC)

BELÉM/PA (1923 – fev/2007)

Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia

Cortesia: J. Raimundo


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

VARIAÇÃO SAZONAL DO CLIMOGRAMA

BELÉM/PA (1930 – 2007)

Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia

Cortesia: J. Raimundo


On the climate prediction and monitoring over the brazilian amazon

obrigado!

[email protected]


  • Login