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ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION AND MONITORING OVER THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON. Everaldo B. de Souza [email protected] Faculdade de Meteorologia Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA Belém-PA. Precipitation over South America. Obregon 2003. Precipitation over South America. Obregon 2003.

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ON THE CLIMATE PREDICTION AND

MONITORING OVER THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON

Everaldo B. de Souza

[email protected]

Faculdade de Meteorologia

Universidade Federal do Pará - UFPA

Belém-PA






The Amazonian precipitation variability is related to the ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans


Pacific and Atlantic ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

monitoring indices


The unfavorable scenario ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Souza, Kayano, Ambrizzi 2005


The favorable scenario ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Souza, Kayano, Ambrizzi 2005


The ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceansintraseasonal variability

The beginning...

R.A. Madden and P.R. Julian. 1971: Detection of a 40–50 Day Oscillation in the Zonal Wind in the Tropical Pacific. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 28, No. 5, pp. 702–708.

R.A. Madden and P.R. Julian. 1972: Description of Global-Scale Circulation Cells in the Tropics with a 40–50 Day Period. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences: Vol. 29, No. 6, pp. 1109–1123.


Intraseasonal variability ( ~ 15-90 dias) ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

INTRASEASONAL

Mode

~ 30 – 70 days

planetary wave (MJO)

SUB-MONTHLY

Mode

~ 15 – 30 days

4-6 zonal wavenumber


Evidences of the ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceansintraseasonal variability

Primavera

Primavera

Verão

Verão

Outono

Outono

Vitorino et al., 2006


Evidences of the ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceansintraseasonal variability

Souza and Ambrizzi 2006


Planetary ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

mechanism:

The

Madden-Julian

oscillation

Carvalho et al., 2004


Planetary mechanism: ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

The Madden-Julian oscillation

Souza and Ambrizzi 2006


Wavetrains ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans from MJO

Cunningham and Cavalcanti, 2006


Regional mechanisms within the MJO envelope: SACZ and ITCZ ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

CHI200; V200 OLR; qV SST;V1000

Dia –18

Dia –15

Dia –12

Dia –9

Dia -6


Regional mechanisms within the MJO envelope: SACZ and ITCZ ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

CHI200; V200 OLR; qV SST;V1000

Dia –3

Dia 0

Dia +3

Dia +6

Dia +9


Lets back in the time… we are in January 2007. ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

we need to produce the seasonal forecast for the Amazônia for the next the 3 months (Feb – Mar – Apr 2007)


Results of the climate models for FEB – MAR – APR 2007 ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

CPTEC: Kuo DERF RAS GRELL

NCEP ECMWF

IRI CPTEC ETA


The ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceansseasonal forecast:

The precipitation observed in Feb – Mar – Apr 2007


R ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic OceansEDE ESTADUAL DE PREVISÃO CLIMÁTICA E HIDROMETEOROLÓGICA DO PARÁ

RPCH

EXECUTOR:

UFPA - Everaldo Souza (Coordenador)

CO-EXECUTORES:

SECTAM (NHM)

INMET (2º DISME)

SIPAM (CTO-BELÉM)

CONVÊNIO 3641/06


Objetivo da RPCH: ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Implementar e sistematizar um Rede integrada de pesquisa e previsão climática no Estado do Pará, focalizando a escala de tempo sazonal e intrasazonal, com vistas ao aprimoramento do conhecimento científico sobre a climatologia dinâmica tropical e, consequentemente, tanto melhorar como aumentar a capacidade de desenvolvimento das previsões das condições do clima regional sobre a Amazônia oriental.


Metas físicas da RPCH: ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

  • Estudos observacionais;

  • Modelagem climática regional (RegCM3 for Amazon);

  • Análise e modelagem hidrometeorológica;

  • Implementação e consolidação das Discussões Mensais de Análise e Previsão Climática;

  • Estabelecer mecanismos de disseminação e aplicação da informação e previsão climática.


Equipe da RPCH: ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Estudantes e Bolsistas

Pós-Graduação:

Douglas

Marcio

João Paulo

Andressa

Saulo

Antonio

Denise

Graduação:

Ronaldo

Luis Felipe

Chymeny

Carlos

Sheila

Hildo

Alex

Everaldo

Aurora

Galdino

José Ricardo

Midori

Hernani

João Batista

Paulo Souza

Carvalho

Cattanio

Danilo

Isa

Julia

Renato

Bergsson

Rosilene

Tiago

Edson

Jorge

Rodrigo

Cesar

Marcio

Rolim

J.Raimundo

Alcy

Rai

Sandim

Paulo

Tiago

Reginaldo

Outras instituições:

Defesa Cilvil, ADA, UFRA

Pedro Martorano

Pacheco

Major Norat

Paula

Parcerias:

IEPA, INPE e IAG-USP

Alan

Assunção

Gandú

Pablo

Luciano

Tércio

Rose

Pessoal diretamete envolvido:

12 Doutores, 8 Mestres, ~25 Graduados, 2 Mestrandos, 2 Bolsas Iniciação Científica


Climate change in the eastern Amazon… ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans


Belém city ~ 1960 ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

Belém city ~ 2000


MÉDIA ANUAL DA TEMPERATURA DO AR (ºC) ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

BELÉM/PA (1923 – fev/2007)

Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia

Cortesia: J. Raimundo


VARIAÇÃO SAZONAL DO CLIMOGRAMA ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

BELÉM/PA (1930 – 2007)

Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia

Cortesia: J. Raimundo


obrigado! ocean-atmospheric modes observed over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans

[email protected]


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