A study to clarify important systematic errors
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A study to clarify important systematic errors. A.K.Ichikawa, Kyoto univ. We have just started not to be in a time blind with construction works. Activity members come from KEK, Kyoto univ and Tokyo univ.

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A study to clarify important systematic errors

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A study to clarify important systematic errors

A study to clarify important systematic errors

A.K.Ichikawa, Kyoto univ.

We have just started not to be in a time blind with construction works.

Activity members come from KEK, Kyoto univ and Tokyo univ.


Hiraide study in 2004 http www he scphys kyoto u ac jp member hiraide t2k index html

Hiraide study in 2004http://www-he.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp/member/hiraide/t2k/index.html

Systematic shifts on (sin22q23,Dm232) are evaluated with following systematic errors.

  • Flux normalization uncertainty (10%)

  • Non-QE ratio uncertainty (20%)

  • Energy scale uncertainty (4%)

  • Spectrum shape uncertainty (FLUKA/MARS)

  • Spectrum width uncertainty (10%)


Systematic shift

K.Hiraide

OA2.5deg

Systematic shift

d(sin2 2q)

d(Dm2)

MINOS 90%

nqe

shape

esk

width

width

norm

stat.

esk

stat.

norm

shape

nqe

Various systematic shifts are shown as a function of true Dm2.

Dashed lines indicate the size of statistical error.


A study to clarify important systematic errors

  • This was a very instructive study. Direct reduction of above systematic errors is very important.

  • Indirect reduction of systematic errors by cancellation btw. near and far observation is not evaluated.

  • Near to Far Extrapolation method should be studied. A new method may be useful if that is found to be robust against systematic uncertainty.

    • Default : Far/Near ratio

    • Matrix in (Enfar, Ennear) plane.

    • Using parent’s(=p,K) (p,q) distribution

  • Some of the systematic errors is not evaluated. (e.g. beam related ones.)


Cancellation of syst error on n 11exp

Cancellation of syst error on N11exp

N11exp(f)

NSKMC(f)

∝NKTMC(f)

From K2K


Contribution of syst errors on spectrum

From K2K

Contribution of syst. errors on spectrum

Spec.

nQE/QE

Spec.+nQE/QE

Total

SK Escale

eSK

F/N


K2k ii n e appearance search error on backgrounds from nm

K2K-II ne appearance searchError on backgrounds from nm

* Super-K intrinsic


Short term goal of this study

Short term goal of this study

  • Find the best near to far extrapolation method

    • The best one would varies depending on statistics and information from NA61 and ND measurements.

    • Can ND mesurements constrain hadron production uncertainty when there is uncertainty on netrino interaction?

  • Make oscillation analysis tool for T2K based on the K2K method.

    • See next slide.

  • Clarify the importance of following systematic errors as a function of statistics

    • Hadron production

      • Compare GFLUKA, MARS and FLUKA2007

      • Getting reasonable error matrix on flux by assuming reasonable uncertainty in (p,q) distribution

      • After NA61 results come, this will be replaced.

    • Beamline origin (misalignment etc.)

    • Neutrino interaction

      Energy dependent non-QE/CCQE ratio, NC/CC ratio

    • Super-K intrinsic

      energy scale and normalization (comes from FV, PID etc.)

      For ne appearance, statistical and Super-K intrinsic error would be dominant. Still update of p.7 table with T2K off-axis flux is important to confirm this.


Likelihood

From K2K

Likelihood

Normalization term

Shape term for FCFV 1Rm

Systematic parameter constraint term


T2k near to far extrapolation matrix

T2K Near to Far extrapolation Matrix

En(Super-K)

Robustness against the hadron production uncertainty will be checked.

En(Super-K) v.s. En(on-axis) will be made, too.

Very Preliminary

En(Off-axis ND280)

K.Sakashita


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