A study to clarify important systematic errors
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A study to clarify important systematic errors. A.K.Ichikawa, Kyoto univ. We have just started not to be in a time blind with construction works. Activity members come from KEK, Kyoto univ and Tokyo univ.

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A study to clarify important systematic errors

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A study to clarify important systematic errors

A.K.Ichikawa, Kyoto univ.

We have just started not to be in a time blind with construction works.

Activity members come from KEK, Kyoto univ and Tokyo univ.


Hiraide study in 2004http://www-he.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp/member/hiraide/t2k/index.html

Systematic shifts on (sin22q23,Dm232) are evaluated with following systematic errors.

  • Flux normalization uncertainty (10%)

  • Non-QE ratio uncertainty (20%)

  • Energy scale uncertainty (4%)

  • Spectrum shape uncertainty (FLUKA/MARS)

  • Spectrum width uncertainty (10%)


K.Hiraide

OA2.5deg

Systematic shift

d(sin2 2q)

d(Dm2)

MINOS 90%

nqe

shape

esk

width

width

norm

stat.

esk

stat.

norm

shape

nqe

Various systematic shifts are shown as a function of true Dm2.

Dashed lines indicate the size of statistical error.


  • This was a very instructive study. Direct reduction of above systematic errors is very important.

  • Indirect reduction of systematic errors by cancellation btw. near and far observation is not evaluated.

  • Near to Far Extrapolation method should be studied. A new method may be useful if that is found to be robust against systematic uncertainty.

    • Default : Far/Near ratio

    • Matrix in (Enfar, Ennear) plane.

    • Using parent’s(=p,K) (p,q) distribution

  • Some of the systematic errors is not evaluated. (e.g. beam related ones.)


Cancellation of syst error on N11exp

N11exp(f)

NSKMC(f)

∝NKTMC(f)

From K2K


From K2K

Contribution of syst. errors on spectrum

Spec.

nQE/QE

Spec.+nQE/QE

Total

SK Escale

eSK

F/N


K2K-II ne appearance searchError on backgrounds from nm

* Super-K intrinsic


Short term goal of this study

  • Find the best near to far extrapolation method

    • The best one would varies depending on statistics and information from NA61 and ND measurements.

    • Can ND mesurements constrain hadron production uncertainty when there is uncertainty on netrino interaction?

  • Make oscillation analysis tool for T2K based on the K2K method.

    • See next slide.

  • Clarify the importance of following systematic errors as a function of statistics

    • Hadron production

      • Compare GFLUKA, MARS and FLUKA2007

      • Getting reasonable error matrix on flux by assuming reasonable uncertainty in (p,q) distribution

      • After NA61 results come, this will be replaced.

    • Beamline origin (misalignment etc.)

    • Neutrino interaction

      Energy dependent non-QE/CCQE ratio, NC/CC ratio

    • Super-K intrinsic

      energy scale and normalization (comes from FV, PID etc.)

      For ne appearance, statistical and Super-K intrinsic error would be dominant. Still update of p.7 table with T2K off-axis flux is important to confirm this.


From K2K

Likelihood

Normalization term

Shape term for FCFV 1Rm

Systematic parameter constraint term


T2K Near to Far extrapolation Matrix

En(Super-K)

Robustness against the hadron production uncertainty will be checked.

En(Super-K) v.s. En(on-axis) will be made, too.

Very Preliminary

En(Off-axis ND280)

K.Sakashita


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