THE FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

1. THE FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES Neill Nugent Professor of Politics and Jean Monnet Professor of European Integration Manchester Metropolitan University, United Kingdom

2. POTENTIAL POWER RESOURCES The EU: accounts for one eighth of the world’s states has a population, and therefore also an internal market, of 450 million has a GDP almost as large as the US (EU-9 trillion USD, US-10 trillion) ‘Europe’ and ‘the EU’ are becoming increasingly co-terminus

3. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT-TO-MEDIUM TERM Creating a more dynamic internal market: but there is no consensus what this entails Getting the Lisbon Process on track: but what are the priorities, and can OMC be made to work? Creating a zone of peace and prosperity across Europe: but where are the EU’s ‘final’ boundaries? Increasing the EU’s roles and influence in the world: but can the CFSP/ESDP be effective without majoritarian government?

4. THE PROBLEM OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL TREATY There are three options: Drop it and operate on the basis of the Nice Treaty: but note, the Treaty has to be changed when membership exceeds 27 members. Try to ratify it. Try to rescue parts of it.

5. CHALLENGES: LONGER TERM 1 EU Enlargement: Where will it end? Beyond Bulgaria ad Romania, there are four groups of potential EU members/applicants: Turkey The Western Balkan states Western states of the former Soviet Union The non EU Western European states

6. Challenges: Longer Term 1 EU Enlargement: Broad issues Is it inevitable that as the EU continues to expand beyond its former Western European base enlargements will become ever more ‘difficult’? Does the EU have an ultimate ‘absorption capacity’? Is there a geographical limit? Can the European Neighbourhood Policy ‘stem the tide’ of applications?

7. CHALLENGES: LONGER TERM 2 Managing greater diversity The EU has always had to manage diversity. Traditionally it has done so by a mixture of: suppressing it diminishingit buying it off accommodating it Is the EU now becoming so diverse that ‘flexible cooperation’ will become much more common, and the nature of the EU will change fundamentally?

8. CHALLENGES: LONGER TERM • A need for more – or different – leadership? Leadership in the EU has traditionally been dispersed. Recent events suggest there is an increasing dispersal of leadership. That there is a leadership problem is recognised but, as the CT IGC demonstrated, it is very difficult to reach agreement on what should be done.

9. Challenges: Longer Term 4 What is the ‘final stage’? There has never been, and still is not, any consensus on what is the ‘ideal’ final nature of the EU. Preferences amongst governments still range widely. The Constitutional Convention was unable to provide ‘a Philadelphia moment’. The ‘federal option’ now seems to be quite unrealisable: the EU is likely to remain a cross between a confederal and consociational system.