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Overview of the SUST-RUS project. Natalia Tourdyeva (CEFIR). Overview of the project. Project’s goal Comprehensive assessment of policies related to sustainable development agenda (as it is understood by Russian and international policy makers). Overview of the project. Assessment

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overview of the sust rus project

Overview of the SUST-RUS project

Natalia Tourdyeva (CEFIR)

overview of the project
Overview of the project
  • Project’s goal
    • Comprehensive assessment of policies related to sustainable development agenda (as it is understood by Russian and international policy makers)
overview of the project1
Overview of the project
  • Assessment
  • Different policies (3 dimensions) – unified framework
    • Core model: CGE
      • A country model – Russia
      • Regions – 7 federal districts
        • Producers
        • Consumers
        • Regional Gov
      • trade links between regions in the model (federal districts)
      • regional trade links with the rest of the world
      • federal government
      • saving-investment block
      • macro closure(s)
      • time
overview of the project2
Overview of the project
  • Assessment
  • Different policies (3 dimensions) – unified framework
    • Special blocks
      • Environmental
      • International
      • Social block
    • Model reliability - verification
overview of the project3
Overview of the project
  • Comprehensive
    • A language of policy makers: Sustainability indicators
    • Scenario design
    • Policy recommendations
overview of the project4

WP10 Dissemination of the project results (CEFIR)

WP4 Sustainability indicators (TML)

WP5 Environmental dimension (ZEW)

WP8 Linking the three dimensions of sustainability

(TML)

WP9 Policy analysis including assessment of the model reliability

(ZEW)

WP1 Development of methodology

(CEFIR)

WP3 General structure of the model (TML)

WP6 International dimension (TML)

WP7 Social dimension (CEFIR)

WP2 Data collection and analysis (CEFIR)

WP0 Project management (CEFIR)

Overview of the project
existing russian cge models
Existing Russian CGE models
  • Russian CGE models
    • RUSEC – academician V. L. Makarov’s model
    • BEA models (early version of Rutherfods’ model: Andrey Zemnitsky)
    • CEFIR models:
      • Whalley-type simple trade model
      • Ecomod-type tax model
      • Simple tax model + microsimulation
      • Regional model: interbudgetary issues
    • GTAP model
existing russian cge models1
Existing Russian CGE models
  • Tom Rutherford’s models: WTO assessment
    • Main features of the core model:
      • increasing returns to scale (Dixit-Stiglitz love for variety)
      • multinationals and FDI in business services
    • Available models – The Worldbank site(http://go.worldbank.org/NWK0H6OU70 )
      • Country model with a representative agent – the core model
      • Country model with 48,000 households – poverty evaluation
      • Regional model (10 regions in Russia) – regional consequences
slide9
Data
  • Major issues to have in mind
    • IO tables
        • Country IO
        • Regional IOs
    • Interregional trade
slide10
Data
  • Country IO
    • Last published Russian IO
      • 2003 OKONH (old Russian industrial classification)
      • 23 industries
    • Since 2004 – OKVED (NACE-based classification)
      • Any communications with policy makers – in OKVED terms
    • Transform 2003 IO to OKVED (NACE, ISIC – based GTAP classification)
      • Disaggregate IO 2003 on the basis of a detailed 1995 IO
      • Aggregate to GTAP sectors (48 sectors)
slide11
Data
  • Regional IOs
      • Tom Rutherford – set of Russian regional IOs for 2001 (23 industries - OKONH format) (http://go.worldbank.org/IDHFFMGYS0)
    • To build a regional IO: Start from a country IO
      • Assumption – technologies are the same - IO coefficients from a country table
      • Regional output
      • Services production
      • Household consumption
      • Investment
      • Government consumption on a regional level
      • Interregional trade
      • Region’s International trade
slide12
Data
  • Interregional trade
    • We have so far: 2001 data
    • 256 commodities
    • Interregional trade in services?
slide13
Data
  • Conclusion
    • Lots of work
    • Important decisions – next meeting on data collection
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