Population Trends in IR

1. Population Trends in IR Deepak Prakash Bhatt, PhD

2. Population • All branches of social science-sociology, geography, history, anthropology,political science and economics • In IR, from sociological perspective, population refers to a collection of human beings • A population is a summation of all the organisms of the same group or species,who live in the same geographical area,and have the capability of interbreeding • In ecology the population of a certain species in a certain area • Populations changes with three factors- fertility, mortality and migration

3. Demography • Demography is the statistical studyof human populations • Demo-the people, graphy-measurement • It encompasses the study of the size, structure, and distribution of population, and spatial and/or temporal changes in them in response to birth, migration, aging and death

4. Growth • Population growthincreased significantly after 1700-industrial revolution • Rapid increase in the last 50 years due to medical advancesand substantial increases in agricultural productivity • Beginning Green Revolution in the 1940-60s- series of research, transfer of technology, hybridized seeds, pesticides and fertilizers • In 2007 the UN Population Division projected that the world's population will likely surpass 10 billion in 2055

5. World population trends

6. New issues • Population mobility-inside and outside the country • Migration and population policies • Over population • Health, education, economic issues • International and national security problems • Environmental security • Climate change

7. IR • Population, migration, refugeeand hunger are issue of international politics • Push and pull factors of migration and economic and employment issue • Because of climate change- • People are leaving places with hard and deteriorating condition • Uncertain future with unprecedented challenges • No longer issue of a particular country or ministry

8. …. • Fundamental interdependency between migration and climate change • Natural disasters • Geological hazards • Earthquake • Volcanic eruptions • Storms • Floods • Desertification and Fires • Reduction of soil fertility • Coastal erosion and sea level rise

9. Near or Far • Migration is multi-causal phenomenon • Environmental migration may take place internally, regionally or internationally • Internal migration-ruralto urban • Movement across immediate borders between neighboring countries is likely to be predominant

10. Forced or Voluntary • Nature? • Climate migrants- 200 mil by 2050 • Socio-economic and political factors • Coping strategy-not easy or open to everyone as it depends on resources, information and other social and personal factors • Politics of human numbers-political unrest • Over population or not-believe?

11. IR and National Security • Henry Kissinger- poor countries population growth • Two dimensional-national and international security • Larger population nations will gain political power • They will deny others to access to natural resources and materials • Young people will occupy more global positions • More investment in many countries

12. …. • Malthus was Criticized-providing relief to poor would encourage to having more children • Differ-nuclear and extended family • Family planning • High consumption rate of developed countries and high income people • Use of land and misuse • Sustainable and unsustainable development