Quote from siri
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 64

Quote from Siri… PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 37 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Quote from Siri…. “ I hate the way they teach Math in the school. All the teacher does is put lots of examples on the board for the students to memorize. He does not explain the theory so that we could apply the theory to ANY numbers rather than memorizing 10 problems without understanding.

Download Presentation

Quote from Siri…

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Quote from siri

Quote from Siri…

  • “I hate the way they teach Math in the school. All the teacher does is put lots of examples on the board for the students to memorize.

  • He does not explain the theory so that we could apply the theory to ANY numbers rather than memorizing 10 problems without understanding.

  • I much prefer learning why and how and working different problems hands on, like at my school at home, rather than memorizing specific problems that I’ll never see after school”

  • 17-year old Exchange Student from Finland at Shullsburg High (home of the “Miners”), Shullsburg, WI


Business 173a intermediate financial management

Business 173A: Intermediate Financial Management

  • Professor Introduction

  • COB Policies Review/Professor Policies Review

  • Schedule/Requirements Review/Key Dates

  • Course Grading

  • Roll call and Student Intros

  • Finance Overview and Risk Return Tradeoff Review

  • Reminder: You MUST change your WebCT password


Professor contact information

Professor Contact Information

  • Anu Vuorikoski

  • WebCT E-mail: Response usually same day, guaranteed within 24hrs.

  • Web page: Go to Faculty home pages/V

  • Office: Business Tower (BT) 961

  • Physical Office hours (e-mail works) :As I live 148 miles away, only on campus M/W:12:00a-1:20p and 4:20-5:20p in OfficeInformal time before 12:00 as traffic allows


Professor background

Professor Background

  • Teaching at SJSU since Spring 98-Undergraduate: 170, 173A, 173B, 177-MBA: Intro and High Tech Financial Analysis

  • Have continued teaching because of letters/e-mail I get “long after”

  • Teaching in corporate settings prior to that

  • Formerly CFO of venture firm, start-up etc, and big company corporate finance AND Logistics/supply chain re-engineering, AND project management assignments

  • Consulting (Bain, McKinsey, Touche Ross) and for start-ups

  • MBA - Harvard, BA - Williams College

  • CMA, CPIM, CIRM, PMP (all inactive)

  • 20+ yrs global experience: Finance, Business Development, Logistics, Consulting, etc.

  • Always real world focus even when students want “easier”


Cob policies review

COB Policies Review

B. College of Business Policies and Procedures, which will be enforced.

To ensure that every student, current and future, who takes courses in the Boccardo Business Center has the opportunity to experience an environment that is safe, attractive, and otherwise conducive to learning, the College of Business at San José State has established the following policies:

Eating

Eating and drinking (except water) are prohibited in the Boccardo Business Center.  Students with food will be asked to leave the building.  Students who disrupt the course by eating and do not leave the building will be referred to the Judicial Affairs Officer of the University.

Cell Phones

Students will turn their cell phones off or put them on vibrate mode while in class.  They will not answer their phones in class.  Students whose phones disrupt the course and do not stop when requested by the instructor will be referred to the Judicial Affairs Officer of the University.

Computer Use

In the classroom, faculty will allow students to use computers only for class-related activities.  These include activities such as taking notes on the lecture underway, following the lecture on Web-based PowerPoint slides that the instructor has posted, and finding Web sites to which the instructor directs students at the time of the lecture.  Students who use their computers for other activities or who abuse the equipment in any way, at a minimum, will be asked to leave the class and will lose participation points for the day, and, at a maximum, will be referred to the Judicial Affairs Officer of the University for disrupting the course.  (Such referral can lead to suspension from the University.)  Students are urged to report to their instructors computer use that they regard as inappropriate (i.e., used for activities that are not class related).

Academic Honesty

Faculty will make every reasonable effort to foster honest academic conduct in their courses.  They will secure examinations and their answers so that students cannot have prior access to them and proctor examinations to prevent students from copying or exchanging information.  They will be on the alert for plagiarism.  Faculty will provide additional information, ideally on the green sheet, about other unacceptable procedures in class work and examinations.  Students who are caught cheating will be reported to the Judicial Affairs Officer of the University, as prescribed by Academic Senate Policy S98-1. 


My policies

My Policies

C. My Class Room Policies1. Due to assistance in adhering to COB policies and to the demonstrated – by past classes – learning/attendance benefits it affords, classes will be run as back to back sessions with the “break” at the end. Thus the classes will run as follows:1:30 to 3:50/55 (with “break” from 3:55 to 4:15)5:30 to 7:50/55 (with “break” from 7:55 to 8:15)2. Class will go full time. If something runs shorter than anticipated, an unscheduled class exercise that will further enhance learning will be added 3. Short courteous “bio” breaks are allowed during the class EXCEPT during exams.4. Courtesy to your class mates and the professor requires on-time arrival and informing the professor of early departures or missing class ahead of time (due to in class group exercises)


Why i do things the way i do

Why I do things the way I do..

  • From industry – looking to teach something that will help you on the job and, hopefully, ensure it is not exported offshore….

  • Six 6-hour exams at end of HS (at 18) on EVERYTHING ever learned: Only tools pencil, eraser, slide rule. No M/C

  • CMA exam (Four 4-hour exams; no M/C), PLUS CPIM, CIRM and PMP exams


Primary goals challenge to grow

Primary Goals:Challenge to Grow

  • Improve Analytical/Modeling SkillsPLUS

  • Deepen/Expand Discipline Specific Knowledge & SkillsPLUS

  • Prepare for lifelong learningEQUALS

  • Work and Career Preparation


Schedule key dates

Schedule/Key Dates

Exam Dates1. Feb 21 (Ch 1-8)2. Mar 21 (Ch 9-14, 25)3. Final Date, Wed May 23 (do NOT book flights earlier, no exceptions will be made)

Jeopardy DateMay 2


Grading

Grading


What grades are possible

What grades are possible

  • All grades from A+ to F

  • Grades are based on points at the end of the semester (break point system)


So how do i get an a

So, how do I get an A?

  • A typical A student in this class has the following profile:* Thinks of themselves as a responsible adult and likes being treated as such * Works hard AND smart (usually had high grades in previous classes for the same reasons) uses time management tools* Submits work on time without excuses or whining* Tries to solve problems that, on the surface, may seem like “new” because they are in an unfamiliar format or ask for new information* Asks questions when does not understand* Fully participates in in class team exercises, etc.


Can i fail this class

Can I fail this class?

  • Of course.

  • A student who fails this class typically:* Feels like school work interferes with other more important activities/feels entitled to a C or above regardless.* Has a poor record (lots of C-/D/F/U/W) when I check* Feels professors should focus on only what will be on exam, and spoon feed all answers and that cheat sheets should be allowed etc.* Use lots of excuses for not doing work/missing class* Does not contribute to the in class exercises choosing to talk about other matters during them


Quote from siri

Why don’t you show us exactly how to do the analysis and forecast and give “right answer” and test on the same numbers?

  • Answer: You are here to learn how to approach a problem when you have not done exactly that problem before but have learned the tools previously.

  • Do you suppose your boss would pay you if he/she had to do the project first?

  • In real life, there are no “single right answers”


Tooo much work ch 1 3 review from 170 mostly

TOOO Much Work? Ch 1-3Review from 170, mostly


Quote from siri

The basic goal of management: to create stock-holder value (measured by stock price!!!)

Agency relationships get in the way:

1.Stockholders versus managers

2.Stockholders versus creditors


What is an agency relationship

What is an agency relationship?

An agency relationship arises whenever one or more individuals, call (1) hires another individual or organization, to perform some service (2) delegates decision-making authority to that agent.


There are two potential agency conflicts

There are TWO potential agency conflicts:

  • Conflicts between stockholders and managers.

  • Conflicts between stockholders and creditors.


Quote from siri

Would going public in an IPO increase or decrease agency problems?

.


Quote from siri

Why might you want to inflate your reported earnings or use off balance sheet financing to make your financial position look stronger?

A manager might inflate a firm's reported earnings or make its debt appear to be lower if he or she wanted the firm to look good temporarily. For example just prior to exercising stock options or raising more debt.


What are the potential consequences of inflating earnings or hiding debt

What are the potential consequences of inflating earnings or hiding debt?

If the firm is publicly traded, the stock price will probably drop once it is revealed that fraud has taken place. If private, banks may be unwilling to lend to it, and investors may be unwilling to invest more money.


Quote from siri

What kind of compensation program might you use to minimize agency problems?

  • “Reasonable” annual salary to meet living expenses

  • Cash (or stock) bonus

  • Options to buy stock or actual shares of stock to reward long-term performance

  • Tie bonus/options to EVA


Quote from siri

EVA????

  • Economic Value Added

  • Profit over and beyond paying for the cost of capital

  • $NOPAT - $Cost of Capital

  • NOPAT=EBIT-Taxes

  • $Cost of Capital = Capital (NWC+FA) * % WACC

  • Capital: CA-CL+FA=LTD+Equity (CA+FA=CL+D+E)

  • CofC: cost of debt after tax, cost of equity, impact of risk

  • How do you impact the components???


Quote from siri

Why might someone interviewing for an entry level job have a better shot at getting a good job if he or she had a good grasp of financial management?

Managers want to hire people who can make decisions with the broader goal of corporate value maximization in mind because investors are forcing top managers to focus on value maximization.


What are investment returns

What are investment returns?

  • Investment returns measure the financial results of an investment.

  • Returns may be historical or prospective (anticipated).

  • Returns can be expressed in:

    • $$$$.

    • %.


What is the return on an investment that costs 1 000 and is sold after 1 year for 1 100

What is the return on an investment that costs $1,000 and is soldafter 1 year for $1,100?

  • Dollar return ?

  • Percentage return ?


What is investment risk risk return tradeoff

What is investment risk?Risk Return Tradeoff

  • Investment returns are not known with certainty.

  • Risk refers to the probability of earning a return different from that expected. “Variability” of outcome.

  • The greater the chance of a return far below the expected return, the greater the risk. The corollary is that, typically, there is also probability of high return.


Quote from siri

Probability distribution

Stock X

Stock Y

Rate of

return (%)

-20

0

15

50

  • Which stock is riskier? Why?


What about these

What about these?


How to calculate the expected rate of return on each alternative

How to calculate the expected rate of return on each alternative.

^

r = expected rate of return.

^

rA = 0.10(-22%) + 0.20(-2%)

+ 0.40(20%) + 0.20(35%)

+ 0.10(50%) = 17.4%.


What is the standard deviation of returns for each alternative

What is the standard deviationof returns for each alternative?


Quote from siri

  • Standard deviation measures the stand-alone risk of an investment.

  • The larger the standard deviation, the higher the probability that returns will be far below the expected return.

  • Coefficient of variation is an alternative measure of stand-alone risk.


Coefficient of variation cv expected return standard deviation

Coefficient of Variation:CV = Expected return/standard deviation.


Portfolio risk and return

Portfolio Risk and Return

Assume a two-stock portfolio with $50,000 in each

^

Calculate rp and p.


Portfolio return r p

^

Portfolio Return, rp

^

rp is a weighted average:

n

^

^

rp = wiri

i = 1


Two stock portfolios

Two-Stock Portfolios

  • Two stocks can be combined to form a riskless portfolio if r = -1.0.

  • Risk is not reduced at all if the two stocks have r = +1.0.

  • In general, stocks have r 0.65, so risk is lowered but not eliminated.

  • Investors typically hold many stocks.

  • What happens when r = 0?


Quote from siri

What would happen to the risk of an average 1-stock portfolio as more randomly selected stocks were added?

  • p would decrease because the added stocks would not be perfectly correlated, but rp would remain relatively constant.


Quote from siri

Prob.

Large

2

1

0

15

Return

135% ; Large20%.


Quote from siri

p (%)

Company Specific (Diversifiable) Risk

35

Stand-Alone Risk, p

20

0

Market Risk

102030 40 2,000+

# Stocks in Portfolio


Risk stand alone market diversifiable

Risk: Stand-alone, Market, Diversifiable

Market risk is that part of a security’s stand-alone risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification.

Firm-specific, or diversifiable, risk is that part of a security’s stand-alone risk that can be eliminated by diversification.


Quote from siri

Conclusions

  • As more stocks are added, each new stock has a smaller risk-reducing impact on the portfolio.

  • p falls very slowly after about 40 stocks are included. The lower limit for p is about 20% = M .

  • By forming well-diversified portfolios, investors can eliminate about half the riskiness of owning a single stock.


Quote from siri

Can an investor holding one stock earn a return appropriate to its risk?

  • No. Rational investors will minimize risk by holding portfolios.

  • They bear only market risk, so prices and returns reflect this lower risk.

  • The one-stock investor bears higher (stand-alone) risk, so the return is less than that required by the risk.


Quote from siri

How is market risk measured for individual securities?

  • Market risk, which is relevant for stocks held in well-diversified portfolios, is defined as the contribution of a security to the overall riskiness of the portfolio.

  • It is measured by a stock’s beta coefficient.

  • In addition to measuring a stock’s contribution of risk to a portfolio, beta also measures the stock’s volatility relative to the market.


Quote from siri

What is the CAPM from 170?

  • The CAPM is an equilibrium model that specifies the relationship between risk and required rate of return for assets held in well-diversified portfolios.

  • It is based on the premise that only one factor affects risk.

  • What is that factor?


Quote from siri

What are the assumptions

of the CAPM?

  • Investors all think in terms ofa single holding period.

  • All investors have identical expectations.

  • Investors can borrow or lend unlimited amounts at the risk-free rate.

(More...)


Quote from siri

  • All assets are perfectly divisible.

  • There are no taxes and no transactions costs.

  • All investors are price takers, that is, investors’ buying and selling won’t influence stock prices.

  • Quantities of all assets are given and fixed.


Quote from siri

How are betas calculated?

  • Run a regression line of past returns on Stock i versus returns on the market.

  • The regression line is called the characteristic line.

  • The slope coefficient of the characteristic line is defined as the beta coefficient.


Regression to estimate beta

Regression to Estimate Beta

  • Run a regression with returns on the stock in question plotted on the Y axis and returns on the market portfolio plotted on the X axis.

  • The slope of the regression line, which measures relative volatility, is defined as the stock’s beta coefficient, or b.


Calculating beta in practice

Calculating Beta in Practice

  • Many analysts use the S&P 500 to find the market return.

  • Analysts typically use four or five years’ of monthly returns to establish the regression line.

  • Some analysts use 52 weeks of weekly returns.


How is beta interpreted

How is beta interpreted?

  • If b = 1.0, stock has average risk.

  • If b > 1.0, stock is riskier than average.

  • If b < 1.0, stock is less risky than average.

  • Most stocks have betas in the range of 0.5 to 1.5.

  • Can a stock have a negative beta?


Finding beta estimates on the web

Finding Beta Estimates on the Web

  • Go to www.bloomberg.com.

  • Enter the ticker symbol for a “Stock Quote”, such as IBM or Dell.

  • When the quote comes up, look in the section on Fundamentals.


Expected return versus market risk

Expected Return versus Market Risk

  • Which of the alternatives is best?


Use the sml to calculate each alternative s required return

Use the SML to calculate eachalternative’s required return.

  • The Security Market Line (SML) is part of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).

  • SML: ri = rRF + (RPM)bi .

  • Assume rRF = 8%; rM = rM = 15%.

  • RPM = (rM - rRF) = 15% - 8% = 7%.

^


Required rates of return

Required Rates of Return

r1 = 8.0% + (7%)(1.29)

= 8.0% + 9.0%= 17.0%.

rM= 8.0% + (7%)(1.00)= 15.0%.

r2.= 8.0% + (7%)(0.68)= 12.8%.

rT-bill= 8.0% + (7%)(0.00)= 8.0%.

r3= 8.0% + (7%)(-0.86)= 2.0%.


Expected versus required returns

Expected versus Required Returns

^


Quote from siri

Impact of Inflation Change on SML

Required Rate

of Return r (%)

 I = 3%

New SML

SML2

SML1

18

15

11

8

Original situation

00.51.01.52.0


Quote from siri

Impact of Risk Aversion Change

After increase

in risk aversion

Required Rate of Return (%)

SML2

rM = 18%

rM = 15%

SML1

18

15

 RPM = 3%

8

Original situation

Risk, bi

1.0


Quote from siri

The SML Equation

  • The measure of risk used in the SML is the beta coefficient of company i, bi.

  • The SML equation:

    ri = rRF + (RPM) bi


Quote from siri

_

ri

Illustration of beta calculation

.

20

15

10

5

.

Year rM ri

115% 18%

2 -5-10

312 16

_

-505101520

rM

-5

-10

^

^

ri = -2.59 + 1.44 kM

.


Method of calculation

Method of Calculation

  • Analysts use a computer with statistical or spreadsheet software to perform the regression.

    • At least 3 year’s of monthly returns or 1 year’s of weekly returns are used.

    • Many analysts use 5 years of monthly returns.

(More...)


Interpreting regression results

Interpreting Regression Results

  • The R2 measures the percent of a stock’s variance that is explained by the market. The typical R2 is:

    • 0.3 for an individual stock

    • over 0.9 for a well diversified portfolio


Interpreting regression results continued

Interpreting Regression Results (Continued)

  • The 95% confidence interval shows the range in which we are 95% sure that the true value of beta lies. The typical range is:

    • from about 0.5 to 1.5 for an individual stock

    • from about .92 to 1.08 for a well diversified portfolio


Quote from siri

  • Betas of individual securities are not good estimators of future risk.

  • Betas of portfolios of 10 or more randomly selected stocks are reasonably stable.

  • Past portfolio betas are good estimates of future portfolio volatility.


Quote from siri

  • CAPM/SML concepts are based on expectations, yet betas are calculated using historical data. A company’s historical data may not reflect investors’ expectations about future riskiness.

  • Other models are being developed that will one day replace the CAPM, but it still provides a good framework for thinking about risk and return.


  • Login