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Happy Creek Sediment Endpoint ( AllForX ) and Future Growth Modeling

Happy Creek Sediment Endpoint ( AllForX ) and Future Growth Modeling. Online Technical Advisory Committee Meeting Gene Yagow June 2, 2014. Happy Creek Modeling Sub-watersheds. Existing Land Use in Happy Creek. Existing Sediment Loads in Happy Creek. Future Growth (FG).

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Happy Creek Sediment Endpoint ( AllForX ) and Future Growth Modeling

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  1. Happy Creek Sediment Endpoint (AllForX) and Future Growth Modeling Online Technical Advisory Committee Meeting Gene Yagow June 2, 2014

  2. Happy Creek Modeling Sub-watersheds

  3. Existing Land Use in Happy Creek

  4. Existing Sediment Loads in Happy Creek

  5. Future Growth (FG) • Warren County Urban Development Areas • Confined within the Town of Front Royal

  6. FG Assumptions • Within Commercial UDA areas: • All land would become high intensity development (HDI) • Within Residential UDA areas: • Current LDI would become MDI • All row crops would become LDI • 50% of the pasture/hay, forest, and pervious urban areas would become LDI

  7. FG Land Use Changes

  8. Existing vs. Future Sediment Loads

  9. Basis for Setting Sediment Endpoints • Sediment: No in-stream WQ standard • Biology: Aquatic Life Use standard • Virginia Stream Condition Index (VSCI) = 60 • Relationship between sediment and the in-stream biology • Measures: • Biology = VSCI • Sediment = All Forest Load Multiplier (AllForX)

  10. All Forest Load Multiplier (AllForX) Existing Condition All Forest Condition Existing Load All Forest Load AllForX =

  11. AllForX Regression Example 11.64

  12. Basic Criteria used for Selecting Comparison Watersheds • DEQ biomonitoring stations within 30 miles of Happy Creek • Minimum of 3 VSCI samples • Sampled since January 2005 • Average VSCI > 60 • Minimum VSCI > 55

  13. Additional Criteria used for Selecting Comparison Watersheds • 2nd to 4th order streams • Only one comparison watershed per stream • Eventually will select 4-6 for full modeling

  14. Happy Creek Monitoring and Loads

  15. Initial Plot of Comparison Watersheds Inappropriate for use as Sediment endpoints Impaired

  16. Proposed AllForX Regression

  17. Next Steps • Finalize Modeling • Create Allocation Scenarios • Write TMDL report

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