The terrawatt scale
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The TerraWatt Scale. Can Renewables Compete?. Two Main Challenges. Electricity Production:  per capita consumption is increasing faster than energy efficiency and global demand is rising rapidly on the terawatt scale

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The TerraWatt Scale

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The terrawatt scale

The TerraWatt Scale

Can Renewables Compete?


Two main challenges

Two Main Challenges

  • Electricity Production:  per capita consumption is increasing faster than energy efficiency and global demand is rising rapidly on the terawatt scale

  • Electricity Distribution:  Aging grid already at capacity; can not easily handle new capacity additions are a large distributed generation system based on renewables


A century of change 1900 1 vs 2000

A Century of Change (1900 (=1) vs 2000)

  • Industrial Output: 40

  • Marine Fish Catch: 35

  • CO2 Emissions: 17

  • Total Energy Use: 16

  • Coal Production: 7

  • World Population: 4

No More Fish by

2100 at this rate

of Consumption

From 1950-2000 electricity generation scaled as

(Population growth)3.5


Waveforms of growth

Waveforms of Growth


Implications

Implications

  • This Century can not scale in terms of material consumption the way that the last century did  BAU can’t be supported

  • We are starting to run out of raw materials needed for basic infrastructure

  • We are definitely running out of rare materials needed for some advanced technologies


Energy literacy 101 numbers

100 Million

1 Billion

1 Trillion

Number of Households capable of buying, storing and generating electricity

Dollars per day we spend on gasoline

Continuous generated power by 3300 power plants; 10% (100,000 MW) of which is lost in transmission

Energy Literacy 101 Numbers


Business as usual scenario

Business As Usual Scenario

  • Population stabilizes to 10-12 billion by the year 2100

  • Total world energy use from 2000 to 2100 is 4000 Terra Watt Years

  • 40 TWyr is compromise between current 15 TWyr and scaled (ridiculous) 235 TWyr


Ultimately recoverable resource

Conventional Oil/Gas

Unconventional Oil

Coal

Methane Clathrates

Oil Shale

Uranium Ore

Geothermal Steam - conventional

1000 TWy (1/4 need)

2000

5000

20,000

30,000

2,000

4,000

Ultimately Recoverable Resource


Other possibilities

Hot Dry Rock

Sunlight/OTEC

Wind Energy

Gulf Stream

Global Biomass

1,000,000

9,000,000

200,000

140,000

10,000

Other Possibilities

In Principle, Incident Energy is Sufficient  but how to recover and distribute it in the most cost effective manner?


Dollars per megawatt per unit land use per unit material use

20 KW power buoy

5 MW Wind Turbine

LNG closed cycle

Wind Farm

PV Farm

Stirling Farm

Pelamis Farm

850 Tons per MW

100 Tons per MW

1500 MW sq km

600 MW sq km

50 MW sq km

40 MW sq km

30 MW sq km

Dollars Per Megawatt per unit Land use per unit Material Use


The current us situation

The Current US Situation

  • Electricity power is at .97 TW (2007)

  • Approximately 450,000 MW (0.45 TW) is provided by Coal

  • Annual Coal emissions for electricity generation are almost exactly equal to total annual emissions from gasoline powered vehicles

  • National Goal  replace 450,000 MW of coal fired electricity


But replace with what

But replace with what

  • Beware the nuclear comeback  would require building 450 new nuclear power plants (currently 109 exist)

  • LNG  this is our current path

  • About 95% of new generating capacity added over the last 10 years is NG fired electricity

  • LNG path is fraught with political peril; Russia and Iran have more than 50% remaining supply


Large scale renewables

Large Scale Renewables

  • CSP  40 MW per square km  100 x 100 km section of central Nevada  400,000 MW (about equal to current Coal)  but only for about 6-8 hrs per day

  • Great Plains Wind Project  1 10 MW Turbine per 10 square km  450,000 MW (but at about 50% wind reliability)


More possibilities

More Possibilities

  • Off shore wind/wave energy devices  make hydrogen (electricity carrier) and fresh water

  • Aleutian Island corridor  about 200,000 MW available there

  • 1000 km Gulf Current Turbine corridor  1 TW available

  • Regionally: Multi-element Tidal fence topped with Wind Turbines across the straits of Juan de Fuca  50,000 MW.


Us wind energy generation

US Wind Energy Generation

Good Trajectory but still only 2.4% of US Nameplate Capacity


Recent capacity enhancements

2003

1.8 MW

350’

2000

850 kW

265’

Recent Capacity Enhancements

2006

5 MW

600’


But main growth is wind

But main growth is wind


Vestas exa ple

Vestas Exa ple

  • 3600 turbine blades per year

  • Requires 2500 workers

  • Requires 2 x 400,000 square feet facilities.

  • 1200 2.5 MW wind Turbines per year

  • 3000 MW per year  150 years to replace 450,000 MW of Coal

  • Off shore blade problem


The terrawatt scale

  • 63 M blades

  • 138 M high tower (tower to blade is usually 2:1)

  • Clipper systems plan 7.5 MW using 90 meter blades (off shore)


The terrawatt scale

200 MW in 2007 to 1840 MW in 2012

Total installed is 636 I 2007 and 5180 in 2012


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