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Emerging Growth: Mid-Decade Economic Trends. University of North Texas Center for Economic Development and Research http ://cedr.unt.edu. July 2014. U. S. Real GDP Growth Annual Percentage Change. 2013: 1.9%. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Emerging Growth: Mid-Decade Economic Trends

University of North Texas

Center for Economic Development and Research

http://cedr.unt.edu

July 2014


U. S. Real GDP GrowthAnnual Percentage Change

2013:

1.9%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis


Real Economic GrowthGross domestic product

1Q 2014:

-2.9%

2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis


Nonfarm PayrollsMonthly change, in thousands

June 2014:

288,000

2012 2013 2014

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Nonfarm Payrolls 2008-PresentMonthly change, in thousands

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Human SacrificeNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)

Jun ’14:

31,434

2012 2013 2014

Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas


Human Sacrifice 2008-PresentNumber of layoff announcements in the U. S. (in thousands)

Source: Challenger, Gray and Christmas


U. S. Jobless RateSeasonally adjusted

June ’14:

6.1%

2013 2014

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Personal IncomeTotal personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates

May ’14:

$14.6 trillion

2013 2014

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;

Bureau of Economic Analysis


Personal Income 2000-13Total personal income in trillions of dollars, before taxes, at seasonally adjusted annual rates

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;

Bureau of Economic Analysis


Personal ConsumptionIn trillions

May ’14:

$11.8 trillion

2013 2014

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;

Bureau of Economic Analysis


Personal Consumption 2000-13In trillions

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;

Bureau of Economic Analysis


Retail SalesTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

June 2014:

$439.9 billion

2013 2014

Source: U.S. Commerce Department


Retail Sales 2007-PresentTotal retail sales in billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

Source: U.S. Commerce Department


June 2014:

103.9

Industrial ProductionIndex, 2007=100, seasonally adjusted

Source: Federal Reserve Board


Construction SpendingIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

May 2014:

$956.1 billion

2013 2014

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce


Construction Spending 2007-PresentIn billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted

Source: Commerce Department


Housing StartsNew private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

June ’14:893,000

2013 2014

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce;

U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau


Housing Starts 2000-13New private housing starts during the month, in thousands, at seasonally adjusted annual rates.

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce;

U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau


Dallas-Fort Worth Home Starts (in thousands)

43.8

20.8

Sources: Dallas Morning News; Residential Strategies


Dallas-Ft. Worth Home Permits Issued(in thousands)

49.6

36.2

20.8

Sources: Dallas Morning News;

National Association of Home Builders


May 2014:

504,000

New-Home SalesSingle-family homes (in thousands)

2012 2013 2014

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce;

U.S. Department of H.U.D.; U.S. Census Bureau


Existing-Home SalesAnnual rate, in millions of dwelling units.

May 2014:

4.89 million

Source: The National Association of Realtors


Lower Prices and Interest Rates Helping Housing Affordability

(Percent of homes sold for which the median family income could qualify)

Original Slide provided by K. Phillips, FRB-Dallas; Updated by CEDR


ProductivityNonfarm business productivity, percent change from previous quarter at annual rate, seasonally adjusted

1Q 2014:

-3.2%

2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Producer PricesPercentage change from previous month for final demand goods, seasonally adjusted.

June 2014:

0.4%

0

0

2013 2014

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Consumer PricesPercentage change, month to month (seasonally adjusted)

June 2014:

0.3%

0

2013 2014

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Consumer Confidence IndexFrom a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100

June 2014:

85.2

2013 2014

Source: The Conference Board


Consumer Confidence: 2007-Present From a monthly survey of 5,000 U. S. households, 1985 = 100

Source: The Conference Board


Leading IndicatorsIndex of 10 indicators designed to “lead,” or predict overall economic activity; 2004 = 100.

June 2014:

102.2

2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: The Conference Board


Things to Worry About

  • Pace of job growth

  • Unfunded pension liabilities

  • European sovereign default

  • Corporate and consumer debt

  • Federal Deficits/Debt

  • Social Security / Medicare / Healthcare impact on taxes

  • Political gridlock

  • Environmental regulations

  • Market volatility


Budget DeficitIn billions of dollars

2012: -$1.09 trillion

2013: -$679.5 billion

2014 Projected: -$492 billion

2015 Projected: -$469 billion

2016 Projected: -$536 billion

Source: Congressional Budget Office


International Goods & Services Trade DeficitBillions of dollars, seasonally adjusted. Import figures exclude shipping and insurance.

May 2014:

$44.4 billion

2013 2014

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce


1Q 2014:

$81.8 trillion

Household Net WorthIn trillions

2010 2011 2012 2013 ’14

Source: Federal Reserve Board


Personal Bankruptcy FilingsFiscal Years ending Sept. 30 (in millions)

Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts


Business Bankruptcies

Sources: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts


Savings RateAs Percentage of Disposable Personal Income

May ’14:

4.8%

2012 2013 2014

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;

Bureau of Economic Analysis


Savings Rate 2000-2013As Percentage of Disposable Personal Income

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce;

Bureau of Economic Analysis


Longest Recession Since 1933Ended June 2009

Federal Reserve Bank Dallas


TXLI ComponentsChanges Mar-Apr-May

Source: Federal Reserve Bank Dallas


Texas Leading Index 1981-PresentMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted, 1987=100

Last Data Entry: May 2014

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas


Unemployment Rates: U.S., Texas, and D/FW Metro

U. S. & Texas Seasonally Adjusted

*D/FW not Seasonally Adjusted

U. S. June 2014 = 6.1%

Texas June 2014 = 5.1%

D/FW June 2014 = 5.4%

Source: Texas Workforce Commission


Ft. Worth-Arlington MSANonagricultural Employment

Source: Texas Workforce Commission


Dallas-Plano-Irving MDNonagricultural Employment

Source: Texas Workforce Commission


Sales and Use Tax Allocations

Source: Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts


Conclusions

  • The US recession is technically over.

    • Employment recovery may not strengthen before mid-2013

  • Financial sector risk

  • Texas has performed better than nation

    • We’ve been “lucky puppies”

  • Market / consumer confidence is major headwind

  • Political failure is hurting growth

    • Address deficit, reform taxes, address market volatility

  • Housing market will start recovery

  • Local job market growing


Questions?

Contact info:tclower@unt.edu940-565-4049http://cedr.unt.edu


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