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Antigua Monday, December 7, 2009

Social Implications of the Global Economic Crisis in Seven Caribbean SIDS: Synthesis Report. Antigua Monday, December 7, 2009. Antigua Monday, December 7, 2009. Main objectives of the study. Assess social impacts of the Global Economic Crisis Review policy responses

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Antigua Monday, December 7, 2009

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  1. Social Implications of the Global Economic Crisis in Seven Caribbean SIDS: Synthesis Report Antigua Monday, December 7, 2009 Antigua Monday, December 7, 2009

  2. Main objectives of the study Assess social impacts of the Global Economic Crisis Review policy responses Recommend a roadmap for improving social resilience among Caribbean SIDS Introduce PSIA to the region as a policy tool. 2

  3. Methodology • Review of reports and statistical indicators (completed) • Key informant interviews with government, civil society, private sector actors (completed) • Focus group discussions (FGD) with vulnerable and affected groups (completed) • Cross-country comparison analysis (in process) 3

  4. Methodology • FGDs • Jointly conducted with Ministry (social transformation) counterparts • Affected groups • Laid off employees (hospitality sector) • Construction workers • Entrepreneurs • Vulnerable groups • Poor men and women (urban/rural) • Elderly • Youth • Disabled 4

  5. Key questions • Given inherent vulnerability and openness to external shocks, it is entirely expected that Caribbean countries would be affected. • However: • Why are some countries more vulnerable than others? • Why are some countries more resilient than others? 5

  6. Context: Socio-economic indicators 6

  7. Context: Poverty rates 7

  8. Context: Unemployment Source: Country CPAs, *Country data 8

  9. Context: Recent developments • The global economic crisis has occurred in the context of other events of social/economic significance: • Food and fuel price increase (global) • Collapse of the banana sector (Windwards) • Natural disasters – hurricanes (region), volcanic eruptions (Montserrat) • Increase in social problems among youth – (region-wide) • Regional airfare increases 9

  10. Main findings: Transmission channels • Primary transmission channels • Unemployment • Reduced income • Higher prices • Secondary transmission channels • Reduced consumption • Health and disability • Rising debt and delinquencies 10

  11. Potential stages of transmission 11

  12. Main findings: tourism decline Stop-over arrivals – percentage change (y.o.y) 12

  13. Main findings: negative impacts 13

  14. Main findings: negative impacts 14

  15. Main findings: negative impacts 15

  16. Main findings: negative impacts 16

  17. Main findings: negative impacts 17

  18. Main findings: negative impacts 18

  19. Main findings: positive impacts 19

  20. Main findings: Coping strategies 20

  21. Main findings: Coping strategies 21

  22. Main findings: Increased dependence on the state Households that once supported elderly parents, both at home and abroad turning to Governments for assistance because they have been laid off or are afflicted by other effects of the crisis. Care facilities and Government programs suffering from an increase in applicants for assistance at a time, when in some cases, they are introducing austerity measures. Community and Social Development departments have recorded an increase in number of persons coming in asking for assistance in the form of food baskets, rent assistance and monetary support. 22

  23. Main findings: Country response • Many Governments have responded with both economic and social policy measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis • However, new social measures have been fairly minimal in scope. There are various possible reasons for this: • Impact of the crisis has been relatively mild (Montserrat, Dominica), reducing perceived need to expand or introduce programs • Existing social protection measures were considered adequate to forestall the worst effects of the crisis (Barbados) • Preference for economic policy measures over social measures (St. Kitts) • Inadequate resources (Antigua, St. Kitts) 23

  24. Vulnerability and resilience Definitions Vulnerability – Exposure of to exogenous shocks arising out of openness Resilience – Policy-induced ability to withstand or recover from effects of a shock 24

  25. Vulnerability and resilience The study has confirmed that a country’s and a population’s vulnerability to the crisis is related to the degree of its exposure to the global economy Social resilience is related to a country’s ability to recover from a shock, through a stronger social protection system, greater food security, The countries in the region can be classified according to both dimensions. The following matrix is based on the findings from the current study. 25

  26. Policy responses INSTRUCTIONS: Based on the conceptualization above, place countries within the matrix. On a separate sheet, provide a justification for the placement 26

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