Steelhead Viability: Where are we now and where are we going?

1. Steelhead Viability: Where are we now and where are we going? Paul McElhany NOAA Fisherie Northwest Fisheries Science Center

2. Talk Outline • Recent NOAA Status Review • General Conclusions • Big Issues • Next Steps • TRT Viability Criteria • Purpose of criteria • General Structure • Preliminary Targets • TRT Population Evaluations

3. Biological Review Team • Reviewed status of all listed species in 2003 • Relied on available data

4. Winter Steelhead Populations in LCR

5. Summer Steelhead Populations in LCR

6. Population Statistics in BRT Review

8. Big Issue #1: Hatcheries • Interim Policy: ESU’s must be naturally self sustaining • Identified relation of hatchery stocks to ESUs

9. Source of hatchery stock and status of local population source from source non-local but source non-local but source non-local and local, native within ESU, no native within ESU, native predominantly from outside of natural local natural population local natural ESU population population exists Substantial natural origin fish in 1b NA 1a broodstock and minimal divergence relationship to natural population Moderate to few natural origin fish 4 in broodstock and 2b 2c 2a no more than moderate divergence * substantial 3a 3b 3c divergence ** extreme divergence *** 4 4 4 4 * moderate divergence = no more than observed between similar populations within ESU ** substantial divergence = comparable to divergence observed within entire ESU *** extreme divergence = greater than divergence observed within ESU or substantial artificial selection or manipulation Hatchery Stock Categories

10. Key Point About Hatcheries-> Hatchery fish may be part of ESU ---- but they do not positively affect the natural self-sustainability of the ESU

11. Big Issue #2: Anadromous-Resident Interactions • ESU Question – three categories • Sympatric = in ESU • Historically Allopatric = out of ESU • Recently Allopatric (i.e. Above Dams) = unknown • Risk Question • Big Uncertainty • Anadromy essential life-history component for long-term ESU viability

12. Big Issue #3: Recent High Returns • How do recent high returns affect risk evaluation? • What happens next time marine survivals decline? • Long-term predictions in marine survival?

13. Next Steps in ESA Listing • Policy consideration of recovery measures • Public announcement of proposed listing this month

14. Technical Recovery Team Tasks • Identify populations • Inform recovery goals (viability criteria) • Identify limiting factors • Determine impact of potential recovery actions

15. Useful Figure?

16. ESA Delisting Criteria • No longer threatened or endangered • “Measurable and objective” • Must relate to listed unit (e.g. ESU) • Not necessarily the flip side of listing criteria • Includes biological metrics of fish performance AND evaluation of threats • Part science– part policy

17. Viable Salmonid Populations (VSP) Three simple steps! • Partition ESU into demographically independent populations • Evaluate viability of individual populations • Abundance • Productivity • Spatial structure • Diversity • Determine how many and which populations need to be in what status

18. How many and which populations? • Catastrophic Risk • Metapopulation Processes • Evolutionary Processes

19. WLC-TRTViability Criteria Framework ESU Criteria Strata Criteria Population Persistence Probability • Population Attributes • Productivity and Abundance • Diversity • Habitat • Spatial Structure

20. LCR Steelhead Strata LifeHistory Ecological Zone

21. Within strata- How many and which populations? • The recovery unit should have a enough populations with sufficiently high viability levels that the unit will persist. • The populations restored/maintained at viable status should be selected to: • Allow normative metapopulation processes (include “core” populations). • Allow normative evolutionary processes (include “genetic legacy” populations) • Minimize susceptibility to catastrophic events.

22. Population Persistence Categories

23. At least two viable populations (>= level 3) Average population persistence score >=2.25 Strata rule set Results in viability criteria proportional to historical population numbers

24. Current Status 1.16 1.06 1.21 1.26

25. Example Viable ESU 2.29 2.33 2.25 3.00

26. North Santiam Steelhead Attribute Persistence Probabilities Abundance and Productivity Diversity Habitat Spatial Structure

27. Conclusions • BRT recognizes many ESUs still at risk • Viability criteria in development • Identifying recovery plan actions…