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Expanded Gambling April 25, 2013. Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis William H. Dunlap Eric Herr Dianne Mercier Richard Ober James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Mike Whitney Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus

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Expanded gambling april 25 2013

Expanded GamblingApril 25, 2013

Board of Directors

Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair

David Alukonis

William H. Dunlap

Eric Herr

Dianne Mercier

Richard Ober

James Putnam

Stephen J. Reno

Stuart V. Smith, Jr.

Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Mike Whitney

Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus

Todd I. Selig

Kimon S. Zachos

Directors Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”


Putting it all together
Putting It All Together

Markets?

Standard Economic

Development Models

Standard Retail Gravity Model Adjusted to Reflect NH Experience

Long Term (Operation of Facility)

# of Gamblers

and Intensity

Short Term

(Construction)

# of New Problem

/Pathological

Gamblers

New Gambling Tax Dollars

Direct/

Indirect

Direct/

Indirect

Costs of Problem/ Pathological Gamblers

Meals and Rooms, Lottery Impact

Displacement

Societal Costs (Govt and Non-Govt)

Net Impact

Net Impact

2


Fundamental assumptions of nhcpps models
Fundamental assumptions of NHCPPS models

The placement of a casino in New Hampshire (or close to New Hampshire) will increase the number of people who gamble.

The farther individuals have to travel, the less likely they are to go to a casino in New Hampshire. And … the closer you are to a casino, the more likely you are to go to a casino.

Gravity of a facility – attractiveness, size, amenities – and the competition in the market affects gambling behavior.

For a small share of the population, exposure to gambling results in pathological behavior.

This creates a set of social issues which – if they can be quantified -- are offsets to the potential benefits.

3


What we did
What We Did?

  • Reviewed literature on gambling pathology, co-morbidity with alcohol and other drug issues, behavioral impacts (including crime)

  • Reviewed data on prevalence of problem and pathological gambling

  • Reviewed estimates of the costs of problem and pathological gambling.

  • Developed a model which provided ‘prudent policy maker’ with a measure of the potential community impacts.


Estimating community impacts
Estimating Community Impacts

  • Requires four steps

    • Estimating gamblers with our gravity model (Page 41, 2010 report)

    • Estimating new problem and pathological gamblers (Page 41, 2010 report)

    • Identifying which costs should be included (Gaming Commission)

    • Developing quantifiable estimates of those costs (Page 51, 2010 report)


Measures of problems and pathology
Measures of Problems and Pathology

  • Shaffer et al 1999

    • Pathological  .9% to 2.0% of population

    • Problem  1.81% to 2.5% of population

Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) identifies a set of disorders which in combination create ‘problem’ or ‘pathological’ gambling behavior.


New problem gambling
New Problem Gambling

Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV) identifies a set of disorders which in combination create ‘problem’ or ‘pathological’ gambling behavior.

Estimate the number of new problem or pathological gamblers from Schaffer and Hall literature assessment.

Account for proximity and frequency as having an impact on the number of gamblers

Provide a conservative (high) estimate based on precision of Schaffer and Hall analysis.




Estimating the costs
Estimating the costs

  • General agreement of impact:

    • Regulatory framework

    • Treatment (DHHS)

    • Other Government (unemployment)

    • Private

  • No agreed upon methodology creates significant difference in efforts.

  • National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago estimated the costs across multiple dimensions

  • Multiple estimates of cost available, settled on NORC for per-problem and pathological gambling cost


Estimates of costs
Estimates of Costs

CPI adjusted


Estimated social costs per gambler with a problem
Estimated social costs per gambler with a problem

Excludes treatment costs – as these were estimated by DHHS

Excludes ‘abused’ dollars

12


Other community impacts
Other Community Impacts

  • Timing

  • Economic Development and the Substitution Effect

  • Measures of Crime (including embezzlement)

  • Other issues identified by Commissioners

    • Demographic shifts

    • Social capital

    • Infrastructure/Natural Resources


New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies

Board of Directors

Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair

David Alukonis

William H. Dunlap

Eric Herr

Dianne Mercier

Richard Ober

James Putnam

Stephen J. Reno

Stuart V. Smith, Jr.

Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Mike Whitney

Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus

Todd I. Selig

Kimon S. Zachos

Directors Emeritus

Want to learn more?

• Online: nhpolicy.org

• Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy

• Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy

• Our blog: policyblognh.org

• (603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”


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