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Leveraging Farm Policy History to Understand Biofuels and Trade Dynamics in the 2008 Farm Bill

Leveraging Farm Policy History to Understand Biofuels and Trade Dynamics in the 2008 Farm Bill. Nadine Lehrer, Washington State University, February 2, 2009. Green Lands Blue Waters 2004. Why the farm bill?. www.agecon.purdue.edu/farmbill. 2005-07: WTO and the farm bill.

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Leveraging Farm Policy History to Understand Biofuels and Trade Dynamics in the 2008 Farm Bill

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  1. Leveraging Farm Policy History to Understand Biofuels and Trade Dynamics in the 2008 Farm Bill Nadine Lehrer, Washington State University, February 2, 2009 Green Lands Blue Waters 2004

  2. Why the farm bill? www.agecon.purdue.edu/farmbill

  3. 2005-07: WTO and the farm bill Agrinews 2005, 2006, 2007

  4. 2006-2008: Biofuels and the farm bill Agrinews 2007

  5. Research questions • How and why did the 2008 farm bill debates shift from WTO-oriented to biofuels-oriented in such a short period of time? • What does this shift mean for farm policy, biofuels policy, and for understanding policy processes in general?

  6. Methods • Document analysis • Participant observation at 28 farm bill conferences • 56 in-depth informational interviews

  7. Groups interviewed Sustainable agriculture groups Environmental groups Social justice groups Foundations Farmer organizations Commodity groups Trade associations Agribusiness corporations Lobbying firms Legislative staff Administrative offices

  8. 1930s ag policy rationale Broadening over time What is the farm bill?

  9. Farm policy history • History of incremental change • Exceptions • 1933 • 1973 • 1985 • 1996 • Commonalities • What would history have told us to expect from 2008?

  10. Policy context in ethanol-driven moment, 2006-08 “This was supposed to be the year that international trade concerns would shape the farm bill. They didn’t. “For months, Farm Bureau leaders have said they preferred an extension of the 2002 farm bill. But… the AFBF said it had [now] decided to unveil its vision for improving the new farm law.” [Biofuels are] important for our national security… good for the economy and the environment. For rural America, it is the greatest opportunity for new markets, new investment, new jobs and wealth creation in our lifetimes. Philip Brasher, Des Moines Register 2007 – Western Farm Press, June 2007 My sense is the biofuels revolution that has hit this country is the most profound change in agriculture in 200 years. Tom Dorr, USDA, 2006 Boyden Gray, USTR, 2006

  11. A shifting policy window • Of 1385 articles on the farm bill: Lexis Nexis, 2008

  12. Suspension of WTO negotiations July 2006 Congressional elections, November 2006 Rising gas prices, increased interest in ethanol Associated budget impacts Why this shift? NASS 2008: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/AgriPric/AgriPric-02-29-2008.pdf

  13. Nationalism Stephen Brooks/News Tribune photo 2006 NCGA 2006 NCGA, no date

  14. Why did this matter for the farm bill? Timing (and history) Resonance of national security frames Environmental and rural development frames Few critiques of biofuels Perceived consensus among interest groups The 2007 energy bill Ed Fischer, Agri News, May 2006

  15. What does it suggest about the 2008 farm bill? • A WTO-driven farm bill seemed likely in 2005-06 • The 2008 farm bill instead reflected a biofuels-driven moment • This has implications for land use, renewable energy, and farm bill reform • It can also help us understand policy processes www.livingindryden.org

  16. Land use implications • 2007-8 corn acreage increased almost 20% • Cellulosic ethanol important, but uncertain in the short-term • Decline in budget and trade as drivers of commodity policy reform Adriana Telias

  17. Future implications • for farm bill reform efforts • for biofuels policies • for understanding policy

  18. What have we learned? • Incremental change as a norm • Biofuels helped sidestep commodity reform debates • National security discourse as a driver • Mixed bag of implications for sustainable agriculture and rural development

  19. Many thanks! • Rachel Schurman, Dennis Becker • G. Edward Schuh, Paul Porter, Kristen Nelson • Interview participants • Colleagues, contacts, informants, supporters • NSF GRP, EPA-STAR, University of Minnesota MacArthur Program and Graduate School Adriana Telias

  20. Questions?

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