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India Sports Channel Opportunity September 25, 2009. SPORTS. Executive Summary. SPT currently has 3 sports properties (IPL Cricket, NZ Cricket, FA Cup Soccer) that air on MAX and PIX; we could better leverage these on a dedicated sports channel
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Executive Summary SPT currently has 3 sports properties (IPL Cricket, NZ Cricket, FA Cup Soccer) that air on MAX and PIX; we could better leverage these on a dedicated sports channel Sports is an opportunity to build equity in a new channel and reach an attractive demographic (youth / males and southern viewers) Our sports properties on MAX and PIX (film channels) dilute these brands and would be more valuable on a sports channel BCCI Cricket rights for 4 years are up for bid in November and would be the cornerstone of a sports channel; we would receive an option for an additional 4 years BCCI Cricket rights include all international cricket matches that are played in India Working assumption is that the bidding range would be between $350MM and $420MM for first four years Based on preliminary analysis, we recommend bidding for BCCI rights with the intent of launching a Sports channel in August 2010 If bid is won, 3 existing sports properties would also be moved to new channel Incremental investment in other “filler” properties, G&A, headcount, and marketing Key economic assumptions (BCCI price, cash flow timing) are preliminary but imply modest incremental profits
MSM India has begun to turnaround • SET has almost doubled its rating from GRP’s in the mid 70’s to over 130 since the management change in February • SAB during the same period has grown a further 50% in rating and in August had the highest advertising sales in its history • MAX is still the number 1 movie channel and has consistently led amongst the movie channels for the last 6 weeks • IPL Sales for Season 3 are encouraging • Signed a presenting sponsor for $10.5 MM and is one of the largest contracts executed in India • 4 associate sponsors on board for an average of $6MM each • 25% of budget sold and expect 60% of budget to be sold by December Source: TAM Media Research: All India CS 4+
Strategic Rationale • Opportunity for SONY to create a billion dollar asset (detail on page 7) • Sports channel will help ensure continued growth in distribution revenues • Easier to monetize distribution on a sports channel than on MAX • The Sports channel will reinforce bouquet strength and increase diversity making “One Alliance” a must have / reduce reliance on Colors • The sports channel will create a large revenue opportunity for MAX • Shifting of IPL to the sports channel will create opportunity for additional ad revenue on MAX • Eliminate confusion of MAX positioning which will only grow as IPL teams expand • The sports channel timing is right • Major rights (BCCI) are coming up for bid • IPL is likely to increase the number of teams to 10 (from 8) from Season 4 which will add 34 additional matches • The sports channel can mitigate downside risk to IPL • Rating declines, if any, can be offset with bonus spots across all properties • The sports channel will help in IPL brand building • Will help de-risk the entire network • The sports channel allows for better monetization of NZ cricket, FA Cup and IPL
Overview of BCCI Rights Board of Control for Cricket in India (“BCCI”) is the governing body of Indian cricket BCCI tentatively plans on issuing an Invitation to Tender (“ITT”) in October 2009 with the winner being announced in early November 2009 MSM has the opportunity to bid for media rights for India covering all international country matchesand domestic cricket matches played in India (ODI’s, test matches and Twenty/20) Media rights include Television (Cable, Satellite & Terrestrial) The four year BCCI package includes 55 ODIs, 22 tests, 10 T20s’s resulting in approximately 50 days of International cricket each year. In addition there are approximately 110 days of domestic cricket each year The BCCI rights are for 4 years however MSM will obtain an option for an additional 4 years with a 10% license fee increase The BCCI international cricket season extends from September to March and the domestic cricket goes from September to June Bank draft of $15M - $30M tender security deposit will be required in FY 10
Sports Channel Economics MSM expects the bidding range to be between $350 MM and $ 420 MM Additional rights for the second four years would be 10% higher; no option fee assumed Ad revenue assumptions have been benchmarked against IPL / current rates commanded by Neo Sports Ad rates - ODI: Rs. 275k per 10 seconds vs. IPL Season 2: Rs. 370k per 10 seconds (ODIs for Pakistan are at Rs. 375k per 10 seconds) Sell out - ODI: 96% vs. IPL Season 2: 82% The Sports channel would go into B3 and be sold through TheOneAlliance Cash assumptions are 25% of BCCI license fee paid one month in advance and 75% 3 months after the tournament ends Note: For purpose of NPV and IRR of incremental investment in BCCI and channel infrastructure, 4 year calculation applies 13X multiple to FY14 EBITDA; 8 year calculation applies 13x to FY18 EBITDA.
Creation of Equity Value • Launching a dedicated Sports Channel represents the opportunity to establish a channel that could exceed $1 Billion in long-term value Public Indian Comparables Value Implications Values in $MM (1) Sun TV Limited and Zee Entertainment based on 2009 EBITDA projections; Ten Sports based on 3 year forward average EBITDA as of the time that Zee Entertainment acquired 50% of company (11/13/2006). (2) FY17 demonstrates high profitability in a year with BCCI and IPL both highly profitable. (3) Risk of decreased EBITDA if properties are renewed at higher cost, not renewed, or replaced with lower value properties.
Schedule FA Cup FA Cup BCCI BCCI Domestic IPL BCCI NZ NBA NZ NBA NZ PGA / Equivalent
Two new IPL franchises BCCI have informally signaled their intent to add 2 new teams to the IPL competition from season 4 onwards This results in 34 extra matches within the competition up from the current 59/60 MSM have the option within their contract to pick up the broadcast rights to these extra matches at a pre determined fixed price The total License cost to MSM of picking up the option would be $400m from season 4 through season 9 (includes an assumed fee for the 3rd/4th place play off) $29m of non License fee costs would also need to be incurred as a result of the extra matches MSM will try to negotiate this predetermined License fee cost down at the appropriate time Due to the increase in adsales inventory and the mix of matches skewing unfavorably to daytime from prime, it is anticipated that MSM will not be able to recover all of the extra License fees through increased revenues. $357m in extra revenue is forecasted across the period This creates an EBIT shortfall of $72m However, unconnected to the two new teams, non License fee cost savings have been identified of $89m that more than cover the EBIT shortfall Factoring a decrease in business as usual adsales on MAX, of $14m, as a result of airing more IPL matches, the total EBIT impact of the changes is $3m
Two new IPL franchises It is both strategically and financially important for MSM to control all of the IPL broadcast rights in India Marketplace and viewer confusion if the IPL was split across broadcasters could reduce the value of the property for all participants It is anticipated that MSM revenues would drop $178m across season 4 to season 9, compared to current forecast levels, if MSM do not have the rights to the new teams Revenues would drop on a per match basis from current levels no matter who was selling the inventory MSM is $102m better off in EBIT terms exercising the option than letting a competitor secure the rights to the extra matches
Estimated Timelines BCCI / Sports Channel IPL: 2 Additional Teams Oct 7 GEC Meeting (preview for Oct 28 GEC MTG) Now Analysis / Informal discussions Oct 14 SPE Business Meetings (NY) May 2010 Investment Committee Meeting (Tokyo) Oct 17 Investment Committee Application Due May 2010 GEC Meeting (Tokyo) Oct 23 Investment Committee Meeting (Tokyo) Jul 1 2010 BCCI issues formal notice to MSM Oct 3rd wk BCCI issues Invitation to Tender Jul 2010 Sony Corporation Board Meeting (Tokyo) Oct 28 GEC Meeting (Tokyo) Sep 15 2010 MSM responds to BCCI re: 2 add’l teams Early Nov MSM submits BCCI bid Mid Nov BCCI announces bid winner Note: Items in italics are best estimates
Scenario 1: Incremental Channel EconomicsBCCI License Fees at $350MM (1) For purpose of NPV and IRR of incremental investment in BCCI and channel infrastructure, 4 year calculation applies 13X multiple to FY14 EBITDA; 8 year calculation applies 13x to FY18 EBITDA.
Scenario 2: Incremental Channel EconomicsBCCI License Fees at $375MM (1) For purpose of NPV and IRR of incremental investment in BCCI and channel infrastructure, 4 year calculation applies 13X multiple to FY14 EBITDA; 8 year calculation applies 13x to FY18 EBITDA.
Scenario 3: Incremental Channel Economics BCCI License Fees at $400MM (1) For purpose of NPV and IRR of incremental investment in BCCI and channel infrastructure, 4 year calculation applies 13X multiple to FY14 EBITDA; 8 year calculation applies 13x to FY18 EBITDA.
Scenario 4: Incremental Channel Economics BCCI License Fees at $420MM (1) For purpose of NPV and IRR of incremental investment in BCCI and channel infrastructure, 4 year calculation applies 13X multiple to FY14 EBITDA; 8 year calculation applies 13x to FY18 EBITDA.
