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Steve Heminger Executive Director, MTC TRB Programming Conference Seattle, WA November 13, 2006

Steve Heminger Executive Director, MTC TRB Programming Conference Seattle, WA November 13, 2006. Commissioners. Mary Peters Secretary of Transportation — Chairperson Frank Busalacchi Wisconsin Secretary of Transportation Rick Geddes Director of Undergraduate Studies, Cornell University

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Steve Heminger Executive Director, MTC TRB Programming Conference Seattle, WA November 13, 2006

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  1. Steve HemingerExecutive Director, MTC TRB Programming ConferenceSeattle, WA November 13, 2006

  2. Commissioners Mary Peters Secretary of Transportation — Chairperson Frank Busalacchi Wisconsin Secretary of Transportation Rick Geddes Director of Undergraduate Studies, Cornell University Steve Heminger Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission Frank McArdle General Contractors Association of New York Steve Odland Chairman and CEO, Office Depot Patrick Quinn Chairman, American Trucking Association Matt Rose CEO, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad Jack Schenendorf Of Counsel, Covington & Burling —Vice Chair Tom Skancke CEO, The Skancke Company Paul Weyrich Chairman and CEO, Free Congress Foundation

  3. Field Hearings • November 15–16, 2006New York, NY Memphis, TN • February 21–22, 2007Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA • April 18–19, 2007 Chicago, IL Minneapolis, MN

  4. System Maintenance

  5. Pavement Ride Quality National Highway System for 2004 100% 91% 91% 91% 89% 80% 60% Acceptable 52% Good 50% 40% 48% 39% 20% 0% 1997 2000 2002 2004 Source: U.S. DOT

  6. 35% 32.5% 31.4% 29.6% 28.5% 30% 27.5% 26.7% 25% 18.7% 20% 17.4% 16.0% 14.8% 13.8% 13.6% 15% 13.8% 13.7% 13.1% 13.8% 14.0% 13.6% 10% Structurally Deficient Functionally Obsolete 5% Total Deficiencies 0% 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year Bridge Conditions Bridge Deficiency Percentages Source: U.S. DOT

  7. Traffic Congestion

  8. Highway Operational Performance 35% 31.6% Percent VMT Under Congested Conditions 30.7% 29.6% 30% 27.5% 25.9% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1995 1997 2000 2002 2004 Source: U.S. DOT

  9. In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually Source: Texas Transportation Institute

  10. 23% Growth in Total Ridership from 1995 to 2004 100% 50% 0% Heavy Rail Commuter Rail Light Rail Demand Response Motorbus All Modes Growth in Transit Ridership Modal Increase in Passenger Miles: 1995–2004 From 1995 to 2004 passenger miles traveled on light rail and demand response systems grew the most rapidly among the major modes. The Vanpool mode (not shown), grew by 147% from a very small base. Source: U.S. DOT

  11. Sources of Ridership Growth: 1995-2004 Percent of Total Growth in PMT from 1995 to 2004 Attributable to Each Mode 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Heavy Rail Commuter Rail Light Rail Demand Response Motorbus Vanpool Ferryboat Nearly half of the growth in total Transit Passenger Miles from 1995 to 2004 has come from the Heavy Rail mode. Source: U.S. DOT

  12. Safety

  13. 0.8 0.75 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.55 0.5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Heavy Rail Commuter Rail Light Rail Motorbus Safety: Fatalities Fatalities per 100 Million PMT 248 Total Transit Fatalities in 2004 Fatalities per 100 Million PMT by Mode Source: U.S. DOT Source: U.S. DOT

  14. Freight

  15. Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade 15,835 59,420 2,557 1,776 4,478 Seattle NY/NJ 4,396 1,798 5,566 1,809 Tacoma Virginia 3,382 2,043 6,639 1,860 Oakland Charleston 13,101 9,420 1,662 6,165 LA/LB 1,437 Savannah 2,152 1,010 Houston (TEUs in thousands) Miami 2004 Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression 2020 Volume of trade: 2004 and 2020 Source: U.S. DOT

  16. Central region +71% 2020 2000 Northeast region +58% West region +65% South region +71% More trade means more domesticfreight movements… U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, 2000-2020 U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020 (tons in millions) 21,682 17,296 13,772 10,700 2,891 1,470 25 2,009 9 1,054 % change 2000-2020 62% 44% 39% 181% 57% Source: U.S. DOT

  17. Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002 Trucking dominates domestic freight movement; rail is critical to the movement of bulky, lower-value commodities and for heavy shipments moving long distances 80 Truck 74% Rail 67% 70 Water Air 60 Pipeline Multiple Modes Other/Unknown Modes 50 40% 40% Percent 40 30 20 16% 13% 9% 10 7% 6% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% <1% 1% <1% 0% 0 Tons Value Ton-Miles Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, “2002 Economic Census, Transportation, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey,” Table 1b.

  18. Rail Network Today Class I RailroadsTrack-Miles Owned 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Sources: L. Thompson/World Bank and American Association of Railroads Today’s rail network has been rationalized and downsized to a core network that is descended directly from the 19th Century design

  19. Finance

  20. Estimated Highway and Transit Program Levels and HTF Account Balances* Assuming Level Funding After 2009 50 Highway Program 40 30 20 Transit Program 10 Dollars (in Billions) Transit Balance 0 -10 -20 Highway Balance -30 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -40 *Based on President’s 2006 Budget and 2006 Budget Mid Session Review revenue estimates

  21. 600 Cost toImprove* 500 Cost toMaintain* Revenue 400 Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year(through 2015) Year-of-Expenditure Dollars (in Billions) Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year(through 2015) 300 200 100 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 Chamber Finding #1 National Funding Gap Year Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

  22. 20 18.3 16.2 15 14.0 12.2 Cents per Gallon 10 5 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Fuel Tax Purchasing Power Is Eroding… Source: AASHTO

  23. …While Construction Costs Are Increasing Street and highway construction costs have increased dramatically over the past few years * Table shows the Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index rates over the past twenty years as indexed

  24. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles 1975–2004 Model Years Sales-Weighted Horsepower and MPG 230 59 percent more energy performance 2004 210 2003 2002 190 2001 2000 1999 1998 170 1997 1996 52 percentmore output Horsepower 1995 1994 150 1993 1977 1992 1975 1991 1978 1990 1989 130 1976 1988 1979 1985 1987 1984 1980 110 1986 1983 1982 1981 0 0 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Miles per Gallon Sources: Environmental Protection Agency; Energy Information Administration

  25. Contact the commission at:info@surfacecommission.gov

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