Лебедь Л.В., к.геогр.н., доцент Токпаев З.Р. ( Lyubov ’ Lebed’, PhD, Associate professor

1. РГП «Казахский научно-исследовательский институт экологии и климата» (РГП «КазНИИЭК») Министерство охраны окружающей среды Республики Казахстан (Kazakh Research Institute of Ecology and Climate Environment Protection Ministry of the Republic of Kazakhstan) Развитие системы мониторинга пастбищных земель Приаралья на базе современной космической и наземной информации(Development of Monitoring System for Pasture Lands in Aral sea Area on Basis of Modern Space and Ground Information) Лебедь Л.В., к.геогр.н., доцент Токпаев З.Р. (Lyubov’ Lebed’, PhD, Associate professor ZufarTokpayev) Алматы 2011 (Almaty 2011)

2. Кызылординская область, 2010(Kyzylorda region, 2010) • Земель, млн. га: всего - 22,602, с/х назначения – 2,448, из них используемых 1,965, • пашня (орошаемая) – 0,145, залежь – 0,030, сенокосы – 0,510, пастбища – 12,538. Собрано сена – 294620тонн. • Лесные угодья, млн. га: площадь – 6,671, покрытая лесом – 3,085, • процент лесистости – 13,6. ООПТ – 0,161 млн. га • Поголовье домашних животных, голов: • КРС-244 400, овцы и козы-761 900, лошади-66 500, верблюды-32 400, птицы-225 900. • Производство продукции, тонны: мясо – 16 100, молоко – 77 400. • Area, mln. ha: all – 22,602, intend for agriculture – 2,448, used lands – 1,965, arable (irrigation) – 0,145, haymaking – 0,510, pastures – 12,538. • Hay from nature meadow and pasture: - 294 620 tons • Forest, mln. ha: all area – 6,671, covered of forest – 3,085, percent of forest – 13, 6. • Protected natural territories – 0,161 mln. ha • Livestock, head: • cattle-244 400, sheep and goats-761 900, horses-66 500, camel-32 400, poultry-225 900 • Realized meet – 16 100 tons, milk-77 400 tons

3. Рисунок 1 Эколого-геоботаническое районирование Казахстана (Национал. атлас,2006) Figure 1 Desertification of pasture lands in the Kazakhstan (National atlas, 2006)

4. Рисунок 2 Аэроспектро-метрическая съемка пастбищ Приаралья в 1990 г. (схема) Экспедиция РГП «КазНИИЭК» Figure 2 Aerospectrometrical survey of Aral sea pasture area at 1990 (scheme). Expedition of Kazakh Research Institute of Ecology and Climate

5. Рисунок 3 Оценка запасов кормов на пастбищах Приаралья с использованием данных ИСЗ NOAA за 6 июня 1993 года РГП «КазНИИЭК» 1 - ≤0,1 т/га 2 – 0,11-0,20 3 – 0,21-0,30 4 – 0,31 – 0,40 5 - >0,40 Figure 3 Estimation of foods for Aral sea Pasture area by NOAA at June 6 1993 Аральское море

6. Рисунок 4 Моделируемый запас кормов на пастбищах Приаралья на влажный год (10 % вероятности) по состоянию растительности на 90-ые годы. На базе данных ИСЗ NOAA и аэроспектрометрической съемки Figure 4 Volume of foods for Aral Sea pasture area on humid year (10 % availability) modeled on 90-th years. On based NOAA and aerospectro- metrical survey

7. Рисунок 5 Моделируемый гарантированный запас кормов (90 % вероятности) на пастбищах Приаралья по состоянию растительности на 90-ые годы. На базе данных ИСЗ NOAA и аэроспектрометрической съемки Figure 5 Garand volume of foods (90 % availability) for Aral sea pasture area modeled on 90-th years. On based NOAA and aero- spectrometrical survey

8. Изменение сезонных температур воздуха и атмосферных осадков на территории Казахстана по климатическим моделям «Атмосфера-Океан» на 2050 год(Changes of season air temperature and precipitation in the Republic of Kazakhstan by global climate models GCM “Atmosphere - Ocean”. 2050 year)

9. Possible changes of agroclimatical conditions for growth of pasture plants in the Aral area under global climate change 5-21С and k ≥ 0.50- optimal agroclimatical condition

10. Динамика продуктивности пастбищ Северного Приаралья, моделируемая для различных сценариев климата Казахстана(Dynamic of pasture production for Northern Aral sea area for difference climate scenarios. Model from Kazakh Research Institute of Ecology and Climate)

11. Рисунок 6 Обеспеченность условийс достаточным атмосферным увлажнением для фитомелиорации пустынных пастбищ на расширенных площадях (коренное улучшение) Figure 6 Annual atmospheric precipitation 75 percent availability in the deserts of Kazakhstan

12. Рисунок 7 Вероятность лет с запасами продуктивной влаги в слое почвы 0…100 см ≥60 % НПВ на весну, которые обеспечивают всходы растений-мелиорантов в пустынях Казахстана Figure 7 Probability of years, with resource of productive moisture in the soil layer 0 ... 100 cm ≥ 60% of field moisture soilon spring season in the deserts of Kazakhstan

13. Рисунок 8 Вероятность лет с благоприятными агрометеорологическими условиям (пять декад и более) для укоренения всходов растений-мелиорантов в пустынях Казахстана Figure 8 Probability of years with a good wet and warm period in the spring for rootingof plant-meliorants (five decades and more) in the deserts of Kazakhstan

14. Предложение от РГП «Казахский НИИ Экологии и климата» МООС РК по несвязанным грантам в МФСА на 2011 – 2014 годы Стоимость проекта составляет 460 000 долл. США на четыре года (только для Казахстана),который будет выполняться совместно с заинтересованными организациями от Узбекистана и других сопредельных государств в бассейне Аральского моря, а также oт США (US Departmentof Agricultureand Michigan State University) и государств Европы.

15. -Продолжение-

16. Project for Evaluation of past support to Aral Sea Basin programs (ПБАМ-3) Applicant information Republican State Enterprise «Kazakh Research Institute for Ecology and Climate» (RSE «KazNIIEK») under the Republic Kazakhstan Ministry of Environment Protection. General director: Sergey Klimentovich Tsoy 7 7272558407 Contact person: Lyubov Vasilievna Lebed, PhD, associate professor E-mail address: Llebed@inbox.ru Position: Leading researcher. Web-page: www.ecoclimate.kz, Phone/fax: +7 727 255 84 14 Address: Seifullin, 597, 050022, Almaty, Kazakhstan Project description. Title:RESTORATION of ECOLOGICAL and MONIRORING of PASTURES in ARAL REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE (using space and ground data). Country and location: Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakh Research Institute for Ecology and Climate. Field of study: Fundamental and applied research and methodological development in ecology and climate change in Kazakhstan. Project implementation timeframe: 2011-2014 (4 years). Study Direction: Ecological and Agricultural Project Partners Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Uzbekistan, National Institute of Deserts, Flora and Fauna, Turkmenistan, US and Europe countries

17. Project details * Relevance and applied importance Historically animal breeding on the natural pastures was the main economic activity of the local population in Aral region. Since fishing activity declined and the area of irrigated lands reduced, the animal breeding remains the major agricultural activity in the region. At the same time, pasturable ecosystems being components of the whole natural system in Aral region, are characterized by unbalanced dynamical condition due to severe desert climate unfavorable for growth of pasturable vegetation, and active anthropogenic intervention. From the second half of the past century, due to unpractical cattle distribution and violation of the traditional grazing practice, pastures of Aral region were subjected to desertification and vegetative cover degradation from weak background in the northern areas to strong background in the southeast and southern areas. During last five years livestock population rose considerably (five times and more) in Kazakhstan and thus loadings on pastures increased causing further desertification in the area, mainly of the focal character around settlements and operating wells. After the Aral sea bottom exposed the intensive salt transport started to the neighboring pasturable lands during last years and soils intensively accumulate this salt. Due to reduction of rivers’ drain and water availability in the area, high-yielding annually flooded lands became now low-productive pastures. The area of pastures also increases at the expense of the new landscapes formed at the drying sea bottom covered with poor saltwort with vegetation. Last decade oil extraction and transportation in Kzylorda oblast resulted in pollution of pastures soil and vegetation. * Problem definition Environment-oriented nature management is a priority direction of rational use of pastures’ natural potential. To build the economically effective and ecologically reasonable system of pastures use under climate change, and in order to promote restoration of degraded areas, including afforestation of the drained sea bottom, and prevent further desertification, it is necessary to conduct the environment and economic assessment of changeable condition of pastures on the basis of their regular monitoring.

18. * Idea \ purposes of project To restore the operative monitoring of pastures in Aral region on the basis of the modern space and ground data; introduction of GIS technologies,modeling of productive processes under present climate and its possible changes. * Work experience of participants of the project The planned results are ensured by previous long-term experience of the large-scale aerospectrometric inspections of pastures in Kazakhstan, Kalmykia and Dagestan which were carried out by «KazNIIEK» experts in operative mode in 1970-1990s. Also, in order to fulfill the work plan under the project its participants will use the practical experience got from the partner project К-1396р together with the US Department of Agriculture implemented in 2006-2009. This project was aimed at development of the modern methodical approaches to the pastures’ studies in Balkhash region using space information (the manager of the project Lebed L.V.). The applied agrometeorological model "Pasture" was developed in KazNIIEK for calculation of environmental and economic indicators of pastures’ condition. RANGES algorithm , which developed in USA, will be to use for condition of soil – and vegetation lands. * Justification of technical feasibility of the project, the main possible barriers . The main tasks of the project are the following: - Tentative estimation of bioecological and economic condition of pastures in the studied region on basis of geobotanic and aeropectrometric information. - Organization of operative monitoring of pastures on the basis of digital space images received with TERRA and LANDSAT, field and aviation observations and measurements and modelling of agroclimatic conditions and productive processes on pastures using "PASTURE" model. - Estimation of present and perspective future ecological condition of vegetation cover and soils of pastures under impact of climate, weather and anthropogenic activity. - Specialised agroclimatic zoning of the area taking into account climate dynamics in order to support measures for rational use and rehabilitation of pastures. - Development of Recommendations on the sustainable management and their rehabilitation of pastures in Aral region under climate change. Possible barriers for project implementation are sparse network of meteorological stations in the Aral region, distant location of the studied area impeding field and aviation works, absence of the objective information on the present livestock loadings on pastures, difficulty in building the system pastures use within small farming and the limited water availability for livestock, inertial factor to receive effects from project implementation.

19. * Project Results and their estimation, indicators, innovative potential The results of the project will be: - GIS maps of vegetation and degree of its disturbance with 1:200 000 – 1:1 000 000 scales, maps of primary production, fodder stocks and ecological capacity with account for probability of local agroclimatic resources availability, calculated using "PASTURE" model, - GIS maps and schemes of salinization and technogenic pollution of soils (fragments) of 1: 50 000 scale, - GIS maps of the total agroclimatic resources and their possible changes under future climate change scenarios, - Specialised agroclimatic maps for pasture use and phyto land improvement, - Recommendations on sustainable management and rehabilitation of pastures with maps of natural risk of measures aimed at rational use and phyto improvement of pastures. * Technical and economic indicators of the forecast of efficiency and feasibility of research financing, market for project results’ application Practical introduction of the rational system use of pastures (with pasture crop rotation on the fenced sites) developed on base of monitoring environmental and economic indicators of pastures condition, will provide 20…25 % increase in the pastures’ productivity leading to correspondent increase of economic indicators in animal breeding and annual economic return on investments for land improvement, improvement of vegetation renewal conditions, reduction of vegetation and soil degradation rates, growth of income and improvement of the agricultural population life standard. Distribution of the received information will be carried out through agricultural departments of local authorities (Akimats) and public fund «Farmer of Kazakhstan». Project budget: USD 460 000 (for RSE KazNIIEK) Operational expenses - USD 60 000, Materials and equipment - USD 60 000 Service: а. Personnel USD 220 000, b. Training and workshops USD 30 000, c. Travel expenses USD 10 000. Administrative/Overhead expenses - USD 40 000. Other expenses: USD 40 000. Financing from the country budget Other sources of financing, including US Co-financing from donor organizations

20. Рахмет! Спасибо! Thank you!