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Simulating Sports: The Outputs Paul Bessire Product Manager, Quantitative Analysis and Content FOX Sports Interactive, WhatIfSports.com July 15, 2009 Table of Contents Ruth vs. Pedro Content Power Rankings Fantasy Gambling Trade Analysis Managerial Decisions Whitey vs. LaRussa

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Simulating sports the outputs l.jpg

Simulating Sports: The Outputs

Paul Bessire

Product Manager, Quantitative Analysis and Content

FOX Sports Interactive, WhatIfSports.com

July 15, 2009


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Table of Contents

  • Ruth vs. Pedro

  • Content

  • Power Rankings

  • Fantasy

  • Gambling

  • Trade Analysis

  • Managerial Decisions

  • Whitey vs. LaRussa


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What If? Pedro vs. Ruth

2000 Pedro Martinez vs. 1923 Babe Ruth


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What If? Pedro vs. Ruth - Stats

Ruth in 1923

HBP/PA: .006

BB/(PA-HBP): .245

H/AB: .393

K/OUT: .293

2B/H: .220

3B/H: .063

HR/H: .200

Pedro in 2000

HBP/PA: .017

BB/(PA-HBP): .040

H/AB: .167

K/OUT: .444

2B/H: .180

3B/H: .016

HR/H: .133


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What If? Pedro vs. Ruth – League Averages

1923 AL

HBP/PA: .013

BB/(PA-HBP): .085

H/AB: .283

K/OUT: .120

2B/H: .169

3B/H: .047

HR/H: .037

2000 AL

HBP/PA: .010

BB/(PA-HBP): .096

H/AB: .276

K/OUT: .246

2B/H: .197

3B/H: .019

HR/H: .124


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What If? Pedro & Ruth vs. Historical Average

Babe Ruth (1923 – 745 PAs)

AVG: .380

OBP: .533

SLG: .683

OPS: 1.216

BB: 180

HBP: 4

H: 213

2B: 33

3B: 8

HR: 41

K: 125

Pedro Martinez (2000 – 817 BFs)

OAV: .162

OBP: .207

SLG: .223

OPS: .430

BB: 27

HBP: 13

H: 114

2B: 14

3B: 1

HR: 8

K: 244


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What If? Pedro vs. Ruth – Normal

Ratios

HBP/PA: .009

BB/(PA-HBP): .120

H/AB: .261

K/OUT: .606

2B/H: .145

3B/H: .015

HR/H: .197

Stats (745 PAs)

AVG: .261

OBP: .355

SLG: .465

OPS: .820

BB: 88

HBP: 6

H: 170

2B: 27

3B: 3

HR: 33

K: 291


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What If? Pedro vs. Ruth – Coors

Ratios

HBP/PA: .009

BB/(PA-HBP): .120

H/AB: .306

K/OUT: .606

2B/H: .143

3B/H: .021

HR/H: .251

Stats (745 PAs)

AVG: .306

OBP: .394

SLG: .602

OPS: .996

BB: 88

HBP: 6

H: 199

2B: 27

3B: 4

HR: 52

K: 273


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What If? Pedro vs. Ruth – Petco

Ratios

HBP/PA: .009

BB/(PA-HBP): .117

H/AB: .232

K/OUT: .606

2B/H: .134

3B/H: .033

HR/H: .158

Stats (745 PAs)

AVG: .232

OBP: .329

SLG: .399

OPS: .728

BB: 88

HBP: 6

H: 151

2B: 27

3B: 5

HR: 24

K: 303


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WIS Content

  • 10,000 simulations for scenarios of interest

  • Removes bias; powerful tool good at giving odds

  • Everything is tangible (heart, chemistry, etc.)

  • Since June, 2007: 600+ articles, 250+ radio interviews

  • Predicting major sporting events:

    • All NFL and College Football Games

    • March Madness

    • World Series, NBA Finals, NHL Stanley Cup

  • Hypothetical Matchups:

    • December Madness

    • Redeem Team vs. Dream Team

  • Trade Analysis

  • Current and Historical Rankings


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WhatIfSports Performance

  • Most likely outcomes since Super Bowl XLII:

    • Kansas over Memphis in 2008 March Madness as of Selection Sunday (last 15 games correct)

    • Red Wings over Penguins in 2008 Stanley Cup Final (scores almost identical)

    • Celtics over Lakers in 2008 NBA Finals (in six games)

    • Phillies over Rays in 2008 World Series (five games second most likely)

    • Steelers over Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII (by four points on average)

    • UNC to win 2009 March Madness (as of Selection Sunday)

    • Penguins over Red Wings in 2009 Stanley Cup Final (in seven games)

    • Lakers over Magic in 2009 NBA Finals

  • Chance we had for getting all winners correct: 0.32% or 1 in 308

  • Other notable predictions:

    • St. Louis Cardinals to win 2006 World Series over Detroit (in five games)

    • 88% accuracy in 2006 bowl games

    • Four of last five Super Bowl, March Madness and World Series winners


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Power Rankings - Current

Every current team against every other champion 100 times and ranked by winning percentage:


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Power Rankings – All-Time

Every champion against every other champion 100 times and ranked by winning percentage:


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Trade Analysis

On-field “chemistry” tested against actual opponents:

  • Jake Peavy to CWS

    • Bad deal for all

    • White Sox increase wins from 72.6 to 77.7; playoff odds 6.9% to 11.4%

    • Peavy just slightly better than AL average in homer-friendly park

  • Brett Favre to Vikings (or Jets or Packers)

  • Shaq to Cavs


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Acquiring/Drafting Players

On-field “value” tested against actual opponents:

  • Manny pre-season

    • 2009 Dodgers without Manny - 84.4 wins, 30.5% playoffs

    • 2009 Dodgers with Manny – 89.8 wins, 42.3% playoffs

  • Missing Manny

    • 50 games with Manny – 31.6 wins

    • 50 games without Manny – 29.3 wins (actual: 29)

    • Final record from 100.7 wins to 98.9 wins

  • NFL Draft


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Fantasy

Pre-season and weekly projections add actual schedule to robust analysis:

2009 NFL Projections (link)


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Gambling (NFL Example)

  • Straight Up (Four Year Totals)

    • 69.7% Overall

    • 90.5% Top 5 Weekly “Power Picks”

  • Against the Spread

    • 2008 NFL Lock of the Week

      • Chosen by highest winning percentage ATS

      • 84.2%ATS

    • 56.3% ATS (Four Year Total)

    • 87.5% ATS all games in playoffs

    • Removes bettor bias

    • Uncovers mismatches

    • Identifies top picks and exact odds

    • Overall performance peaks early and late in season

  • O/U

  • Futures

    • Finding lines where the odds are greatly in bettors favor

    • Miami Dolphins to win division as of Week 7 in 2008

  • Props

    • Likelihood above or below stats thresholds

    • Tracking beginning with 2009 NFL


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Managerial Decisions

  • Optimization

    • Lineups/Depths

    • Situational tendencies

  • Live Odds

    • Team winning expected winning%

    • Simulated at any time before or in game

    • Accounts for all future events and interactions

    • Analyze best possible decisions to make at each moment

  • Stats

    • Sample size issues with specific batter vs. pitcher

    • Actual vs. L and vs. R should be ok

  • Likelihood of surpassing contractual incentives

  • Do teams need to fit managers or do managers need to adjust to teams?...


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LaRussa vs. Whitey

  • LaRussa (Using 2006 World Series Team)

    • Limited running

    • Batting pitcher 8th

    • Five-man rotation

    • Fluid bullpen

    • Playing the odds

  • Herzog (Using 1982 World Series Team)

    • Run often

    • Aggression and attrition/irritation

    • Four-man rotation

    • Relief ace

    • Also GM


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LaRussa vs. Whitey – Results (10,000 Simulations)

2006 LaRussa vs. 1982 Whitey:

1982

55.6% win

5.02 runs scored per game

4.46 runs allowed per game

2006

44.4% win

4.46 runs scored per game

5.02 runs allowed per game

2006 Whitey vs. 1982 LaRussa:

1982

59.3% win

5.53 runs scored per game

4.56 runs allowed per game

2006

40.7% win

4.56 runs scored per game

5.53 runs allowed per game


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Special Thanks To

Dr. Stephen Moehrle & Dean Keith Womer, University of Missouri – St. Louis

Dr. James Cochran, Louisiana Tech University

Dr. Michael Fry, University of Cincinnati

Dr. Jeffrey Ohlmann, University of Iowa

Tom Zentmeyer, FOX Sports Interactive

Joel Bessire, formerly of FOX Sports Interactive

Chris O’Brien and Mike Schneid, FOX Sports Interactive


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Thanks

Questions? Suggestions? Comments?

Email: [email protected]

Phone: 513-291-0321

See me for business card with promo code


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