Forecasting, Prediction, and Testing David D. Jackson, UCLA. Thanks to Yan Kagan, Yufang Rong, Zheng-kang Shen, Ned Field, Daniel Schorlemmer, Matt Gerstenberger, John Rundle, Don Turcotte, Volodya Kossobokov, Ilya Zaliapin. Definitions.
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Ten-year Prospective Test of Seismic Gap and Null (Poissonian Smoothed Seismicity) models
Rank zones by decreasing probability of characteristic earthquake; accumulate area, predicted earthquake number, and actual earthquake number.
Testing scheme for elements of risk model