China and south africa what s the brief story
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CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA: what’s the brief story?. Mike Morris School of Economics, University of Cape Town and School of Development Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal. Situating SA Chinese imports/exports. Chinese African Trade 2005. OIL dominates imports from Africa 69.3%

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CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA: what’s the brief story?

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China and south africa what s the brief story

CHINA AND SOUTH AFRICA: what’s the brief story?

Mike Morris

School of Economics, University of Cape Town and

School of Development Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal


Situating sa chinese imports exports

Situating SA Chinese imports/exports


Chinese african trade 2005

Chinese African Trade 2005

  • OIL dominates imports fromAfrica 69.3%

  • Also other raw materials - iron, cotton, diamonds, logs

  • All iron ore & diamonds from SA

  • Exports – mainly light manufacturing

  • Clothing & Textiles, footwear, bicycles, etc


What this doesn t tell us

What this doesn’t tell us

  • Specificity of South Africa

  • Indirect impacts of China on SA

    • In third country sector markets (need sector based research for this)

    • Exchange rates from Chinese activity


What makes sa different

What Makes SA Different?

  • Substantial Domestic Market

    • Size, Income Level and Sophistication

    • Concentration of Retail

    • Buyers

  • Substantial Domestic Manufacturing

    • Diversified

    • Struggling to adopt WCM

  • Substantial Mineral/Resource Base

  • No Oil


Impact on sa

IMPACT on SA?

Don’t know enough but …..

  • FDI?

    • Clothing -Taiwanese

    • Steel - Mittal

    • Construction squeezed out of part of SSA

  • Trade on Manufacturing?

    • Substantial formal sector job losses in C&T (85,000), Furniture, Footwear decimated

    • C&T systemic value chain competitiveness response to upgrade local manufacturing

  • Aid? – Indirect impact through SSA


Indirect impacts 3 rd country markets and exchange rates

Indirect impacts: 3rd country markets and exchange rates

Two sector stories show this:

  • Autos – 2002 work on competitiveness but at R15 = £. Now because of Dutch disease R10.88 = £ how survive???

  • C&T – Recent work for DFID – AGOA boost for exports but China 2 fold impact. Exports and Dutch disease affect Rand currency zone….


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