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Evolution 3G builds on existing networks Huge volumes Global spectrum Separate network Optimized for voice Old technology. Revolution IP networks Optimized air interfaces Design for converged traffic New technology for low cost No global spectrum or approval No market momentum

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Access to the global internet which technology will win l.jpg

Evolution

3G builds on existing networks

Huge volumes

Global spectrum

Separate network

Optimized for voice

Old technology

Revolution

IP networks

Optimized air interfaces

Design for converged traffic

New technology for low cost

No global spectrum or approval

No market momentum

Timing?

Access to the Global Internet: Which Technology Will Win?

For most of the world in 5 years(aside from North America and part of Europe):

Phone = Cell Phone

Internet = Wireless Internet


Industry directions for networking l.jpg
Industry Directions for Networking

1st GPRS customers

GPRS standards begin

FPLMTS standards begin

  • Cellular Telecom Approach

    • Efforts to define wireless data networking standard (General Packet Radio Service - GPRS) begin before full impact of Internet explosion is felt

  • Internet-Based Approach

    • Use Internet standards for networking and mobility with extensions to interoperate with cellular air interfaces (e.g., GPRS, CDMA2000)

1998

1994

1992

1990

1995

2000

3M Internet Users

153M Internet Users

Microsoft & AT&T still competing with Internet


3g mobility the evolutionary route to wireless data l.jpg

3G Mobility: The “Evolutionary” Route to Wireless Data

Paul Mankiewich and Rich Howard

Bell Labs, Lucent Technology


3g cellular systems the enabler of the global internet l.jpg
3G Cellular Systems:The Enabler of the Global Internet

First Contact With the Internet for Most People in the World Will be Wireless

Wireless Networks become the point of access that funnels end user experience into the Internet

Wireless

Network

Internet


Slide5 l.jpg

IP Network

Integrated Wireless Services--The Vision

GPRS/

EDGE/

TDMA

Base

Station

Wireless Backbone and Gateways

  • codec converter

  • bandwidth manager

  • store & forward

  • playback

Multimedia &

Messaging

Server

  • integrated

  • voice and data

  • video postcards

  • in-call image

  • up/download

UMTS/

CDMA2000

Base

Station

Content

Bluetooth

Cable, xDSL, V90

10/100-BaseT

Radio Hub

Location

Services

Wi-Fi (WaveLAN)

Wireless PAN

Wireless LAN


Migration of digital cellular systems l.jpg
Migration of Digital Cellular Systems

Circuit-Switched Voice

Packet-Switched Data

Packet-Switched

Circuit-Switched

GSM Circuit-Switched Voice

GPRS

Packet

Data

EDGE

Packet Voice & Data

over EDGE

IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice

IS-136+

EDGE

UMTS

GPRS: General Packet Radio Service

(17.6 kbps x 8)

EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution

(59.2 kbps x 8)

UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems

Packet Voice & Data

over UMTS (WCDMA)

CDMA2000


Mobility subscriber projections analyst view l.jpg

5/99 Est

5/99 Est EMC

Mobility Subscriber Projections: Analyst View

1.3B by 2004


The voice multimedia revenue gap millions l.jpg

Today’s IP Market

Data Services 37,092

Internet Access 15,471

IP Telephony 1,890

IP VPN 419

Total54,872

Today’s Voice Market

Switched Telephony 462,763

Fax 64,775

Total527,538

Today’s IP Market

Today’s Voice Market

9.4%

=

The Voice/Multimedia Revenue Gap ($ Millions)

Wireless is much worse

Source: International Data Corp, 1998/Level 3


Consumer cocktail docomo i mode l.jpg
Consumer Cocktail: DoCoMo I-mode

  • Service offered: - Security trading (2 traders) - Banking (31 banks) - Travel - Concert tickets - News - Network game - Total of 1300 I-mode web sites

  • Subscriber uptake: - Service Launch February 22, 1999 - 20,000 in March - 100,000 in April - 90.000 new subscribers/week in August - August 99: 1.2 million subscribers (24 million DoCoMo users) - E-mail and mobile banking most popular


I mode in japan 6m subscribers in under 1 year and the rate is increasing l.jpg
I Mode in Japan: 6M Subscribers in Under 1 Year (and the Rate is Increasing)

~140,000 new subscribers/week

DoCoMo Website 6/1/2000


Wonder swan l.jpg
Wonder Swan

  • Hand-held Game Device

  • Sold 1.4 M units in Japan in one year

  • Email send and receive (SMTP)

  • Internet Access (mini-browser)

  • Remote download of mini-games


Wireless data in the japan market l.jpg
Wireless Data in the Japan Market

Applications and Network Capability Linked to Market Segment

Cost of Service is “Clearly” Low (10 Yen = 8 Cents)

High School Girls

10 YEN P-Mail

Business Professional

Value Mail

Capability

Speed 64K

Market

Segment

Application

64K

Dating Connection

H.S. Girl


Mobility data vs voice l.jpg
Mobility: Data vs Voice

  • Almost all traffic (and revenue) is voice

    • BUT, mobile data is growing much faster than voice

    • US is behind Europe and Japan

      • Japan is approaching 50% data traffic

  • Today systems are circuit switched and spectrally inefficient

    • 2G systems => ~$600/hour for video or $60/hour for MP3

    • 3G systems have

      • IP backbones

      • Lower cost per bit

      • Easy service creation

  • What will be the services?

  • Who will pay the bills?


Migration of digital cellular systems14 l.jpg
Migration of Digital Cellular Systems

Circuit-Switched Voice

Packet-Switched Data

Packet-Switched

Circuit-Switched

GSM Circuit-Switched Voice

GPRS

Packet

Data

EDGE

Packet Voice & Data

over EDGE

IS-136 Circuit-Switched Voice

IS-136+

EDGE

UMTS

GPRS: General Packet Radio Service

(17.6 kbps x 8)

EDGE: Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution

(59.2 kbps x 8)

UMTS: Universal Mobile Telecomm Systems

Packet Voice & Data

over UMTS (WCDMA)

CDMA2000


Mobility subscriber projections by technology l.jpg
Mobility Subscriber Projections: by Technology

UMTS

GSM

Subscribers in Thousands

Lucent WNG View



Transition to next generation networks l.jpg

Wireless Control Servers

Feature Control, Network Management, Billing, etc

Transition to Next Generation Networks

Today’s Wireless Networks

Next Generation Networks

Internet / Advanced Services

PSTN

PSTN

Packet Mode Servers

High Speed Data, Multimedia, Voice over IP, etc.

Circuit Mode Servers

Voice, LS Circuit Data, etc.

Mobile Switches

Network Servers

MSC

Base Stations

IP / ATM Core Network

Radio Clients

  • 99% Mobile Voice

  • Circuit Derived

  • Universal Services - Voice or Data & Wireless or Wireline

  • Client/Server Model - Internet Derived (IP)

The next generation architecture uses Internet based client-server platforms to enable universal services and reduce network cost structure.


Slide18 l.jpg

Services Rollout

3G

Visual, High Speed

Video

Web cam

GPRS

WAP

launch

Intranet

Video clips

TV Conference

Music

Web access

Mobile Office

Schedule Management

Work flow Management

Electronic Conference

File Sharing

Interactive TV

Radio

Multi-player

Games

Portal Link

m-banking

m-cash

m-stock trading

Chat

Room

Picture clips

Information

Services

email

SMS

Route planning

4Q1999

4Q2000

1Q1999

4Q2001


Slide19 l.jpg

Ericsson

R320 WAP Phone

& MC218

Mobile Companion

Motorola

StarTAC™ clipOn

Organizer

NeoPoint™

1600 smartphone

QUALCOMM

pdQ™ smartphone

Nokia

7110 phone &

9110 Communicator

Bandai WonderSwan

Sharp

Zaurus

The Devices are Awesome

  • Docomo

  • Pocketboard

Samsung MP3 Phone

10


Can 3g deliver umts capacity estimates l.jpg
Can 3G Deliver?:UMTS Capacity Estimates

  • Overall about 6x increase over IS-95 for voice

    • 3x comes from bandwidth--5 MHz vs 1.25 MHz

    • 2x from modulation, coherent detection, and signal processing tricks.

  • For user rates up to ~128 kbps (BER=~1e-4 )

    • 1.8 Mb/sec total for all 3 sectors in 5 MHz of spectrum each way.

    • About 5.4 Mb/sec/basestation total for a 15 MHz up/15 MHz down license

      • => ~42 users/basestation at 128 kbps

  • Range ~2-3 Km => Can cover UK with about 10-20K basestations

    • Capacity for about 1% of the population at 128 kbps

    • Smart antennas can increase this by at least 4X

  • If 10% of the population wanted 128 kbps continuous (e.g. MP3)

    • ~20-40K basestations with 4 antennas in a terminal

    • Reasonable flat-rate pricing possible

Courtesy Gee Rittenhouse 3/7/00


Will umts happen results of uk umts spectrum auction l.jpg
Will UMTS Happen?: Results of UK UMTS Spectrum Auction

License Winner Price

A TIW UMTS (UK) Limited £ 4,384,700,000

B Vodaphone Limited £ 5,964,000,000

C BT (3G) Limited £ 4,030,100,000

D One2One Personal Communications Limited £ 4,003,600,000

E Orange 3G Limited £ 4,095,000,000

~$34B says it will!

Rest of Europe by Fall



Slide23 l.jpg

Multiple Access Schemes

TDMA

Different Time Slots

FDMA

Different Carriers

FHSS

Orthogonal Time Slots & Carriers

CDMA

Different “Languages”


Enhanced data for global evolution edge l.jpg
Enhanced Data for Global Evolution (EDGE)

  • Defines an evolution of GSM and TDMA technologies to support high bit rate circuit and packet data services

  • Builds on GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) air interface and network with adaptive modulation and coding

  • Uses 200 kHz bandwidth channels

  • Two versions of EDGE:

    • EDGE Classic enables full backwards compatibility with current GSM (4/12 reuse)

    • EDGE Compact enables limited spectrum (< 1 MHz) deployments

  • Channel structure supports:

    • Peak throughputs up to 474 kbps

    • Average throughputs up to 384 kbps (up to 200 kbps for EDGE Compact with limited spectrum deployments)


Wireless data network l.jpg

Minicell-mobile

r~1 km

Picocell-pedestrian

r~100 m

Increasing data rate, decreasing cell size

Wireless data network

  • Macrocellular data rates ~384 kbps (UMTS-FDD)

  • Minicellular data rates ~1 Mbps (UMTS-TDD)

  • Picocellular data rates ~1-20 Mbps (Bluetooth, hyperLAN)

Macrocell-mobile

r~3-5 km

BLAST technology used in every one


Internet volume approaches voice l.jpg

Projected Crossover 1999

Data=10xVoice

2000

Internet Volume Approaches Voice

Worldwide voice/modem traffic

Show Me The Money!

  • Projected

Actual ç

New networks will need to be deployed as demands for data and interactive services approaches capacity of existing voice/data networks

Source: Internet Society


Real time services via gprs ip phase 2 voip starting at terminal l.jpg

7RE

SignalingGateways

7RE

Feature

Servers

SGSN

GGSN

Mob Manager

IP/ATM Core Network

Customer

Care NM

Servers

5ESS

Switch

Packet

Gateway

Packet

Gateway

Circuit

Data IWF

APs

APs

Real Time Services Via GPRS & IP:Phase 2 - VOIP Starting at Terminal

IP Client in terminal for Voice and packet data

  • Packet Voice (VOIP) starts with an IP Client in the terminal, the call model resides in feature servers on the IP network.

  • Traditional Circuit voice is supported as before.

7REResource

Servers

Traditional Circuit voice supported by MSC

To Data and VOIP Gateways

PSTN

Call Control Servers

ANSI-41

Backbone

Network

Use Today’s Wireless Voice Infrastructure and Interconnect with the Packet Core Network at a PSTN trunk level.


Enhanced data for global evolution continued l.jpg
Enhanced Data for Global Evolution … (continued)

  • Handoff enabled through reselection procedures

  • Current work in ETSI to define VoIP and Real-Time services over EDGE in GSM Release 2000

  • Phase 1

    • Standards: Release ’99

    • Large deployments start in 2002

      • Some initial deployments start in 2001

    • Supports best effort packet data at speeds up to about 384 kbps

  • Phase 2

    • Standards: Release 2000

    • Large deployments start in 2003

      • Some initial deployments start in 2002

    • Will add Voice over IP capability


3g solution direction l.jpg
3G Solution Direction

  • One Network delivering Voice and Data services

    • Supporting all major 3G Technologies to enable operators to meet global market needs

    • IP Centric Network Architecture for Internet derived services

    • Future proof platform that evolves with the IP networking industry

    • Working with Sun to deliver next generation services with carrier grade reliability (99.999%)

  • Flexible Service Creation

    • Provides platform for integration of mobile and internet environments

    • Rapid service delivery for Lucent developed and third party services

    • Retain value in wireless network by creating operator controlled value added interfaces

      • Operators want to be more than an IP pipe provider

  • Rapid Network Deployment

    • Easy to install and maintain

    • Self Optimizing

    • Integrated maintenance capabilities to reduce life cycle costs


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