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Triarko Nurlambang Center for Applied Geography The University of Indonesia

CC AND MIGRATION; A Comparison between Archipelago Developing Country and Continent Developed Country. Triarko Nurlambang Center for Applied Geography The University of Indonesia. CC impact towards Migration ??. Climate Change impacts; the never ending debates

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Triarko Nurlambang Center for Applied Geography The University of Indonesia

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  1. CC AND MIGRATION;A Comparison between Archipelago Developing Country and Continent Developed Country Triarko Nurlambang Center for Applied Geography The University of Indonesia

  2. CC impact towards Migration ?? • Climate Change impacts; the never ending debates • - complexity understanding increase  less linear way of thinking • - political intervention vs academicians & NGOs influencion/advocation in creating public opinions (“CC • hysteria”; “mis-leading” public understanding; creates public confusion: better wait than do something • costly) • Indonesia – Australia: a comparative study in the context of climate change • - Different geographical settings (physical and social-culture landscape); displacement, vulnerability • - Demographic Theory: migration flow from Indonesia to Australia (hypothesis) • Is there any direct Climate Change impact on migration? • - Uncertain impact : problem of understanding decision making process (as well as complexity of phenomena) and prediction methods. Moving decision is more complex process of making decision for most Asian people (including Indonesia; if not forced) compare to Australia • - In terms of living system (system thinking: adaptive and mitigation): from mental models to reality, CC is seems as an evolution change process rather than revolution (we still have time to improve adaptive capacity) • - Those problems gear to the capacity of adaptation development (especially dealing with localities understanding) • The Good, the Bad, and The Ugly scenario (Oli Brown, 2008) • Conclusion • - CC and migration is a systemic complex phenomena where Ina. Delaying intervention on “BAU” may be top • priority. • - Aussie can be put as one entity of regional system for living • - So what is the common ground between Ina. and Aussie dealing with CC and migration?  building • learning process for better understanding

  3. INDONESIA AND CC PREDICTION • Warming 0.2 to 0.3°C per decade • • Increase in annual precipitation across islands, except in the south • (projected to decline by 15%) • • Change in the seasonality of precipitation; parts of Sumatra and • Borneo may become 10-30% wetter by 2080’s (Dec-Feb); Jakarta • projected to be 5- 15% drier (Jun-Aug) • • 30-day delay in the annual monsoon, 10% increase in rainfall later in • the crop year (April-June), and up to 75% decrease in rainfall later in • the dry season (July–September) • Mean sea level increase 31 mm by the next decade; and it is • predicted that about 2,000 island in Indonesia will disappear by 2030 • In case of Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, it is predicted that by • the 2050 some settlement areas and main harbour Tanjung Priok will • be flooded

  4. Source: Raleigh, et. al (2008)

  5. Adaptive (and mitigation) capacity developing

  6. Source: Nisbett, Richard E., 2003

  7. Indeed, it needs a REAL CHANGE (From Awareness to Practise) Public Policies : Government Public Awareness and Understanding: the Fuel of Change Climate Change is seems an evolution rather than revolution  adaptive and mitigation capacity have greater opportunity to be improved Reorienting Education to Climate Change Impact towards Sustainable Development Pattern of Change Shifting to Sustainable Lifestyle: Changing Consumption and Production Pattern Continue change Continue change & accelerated Ethics, Culture, Equity: Sustainable as a Moral Imperative Un-continue change (incremental change) Public Action : Public initiative Mobilizing for Action United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 1997

  8. Oli Brown, 2008

  9. What kind of education needs to develop? Surely a quality education which covered Life Skills and based on the achievement of sustainable development Level of the learner processes Level of the learner processes Supportive legislative framework Implementation of good policies Content Environment Learning Seeks out learners What the learner brings Means to measure learning outcomes Resources “Education is an indispensable element for achieving sustainable development”

  10. GoI Response to CLIMATE CHANGE • As a consequence of COP-13 UNFCCC in Bali, (December 2007), it has established a BALI ROAD for 2012 and Post Kyoto Protocol. • GoI established Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim (DNPI); National Board for Climate Change (Presidential Decree No.46/Th.2008), The President of RI as the Head, Vice of Head: Ministerial Coordination for Welfare Affairs, and 17 Ministries, and Meteorology and Climate Bureau as the members. The MOE appointed to be supervisor • GoI has allocated about 2 thousand billion rupiah (+/- 256 billion Aus$) for improving mitigation capacity towards CC.

  11. Figure 1.The global carbon cycle. Source: United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) http://www.unep.org/

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