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Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from the Third Assessment Report. Roger N. Jones CSIRO Atmospheric Research. Acknowledgments. Tim Carter CLA Chapter III & slides Emilio La Rovere, Rik Leemans, Linda Mearns, ‘Naki’ Nakicenovic, Barrie Pittock, Sergei Semenov, Jim Skea, Mike Hulme.

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Developing and applying scenarios a summary from the third assessment report

Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from theThird Assessment Report

Roger N. Jones

CSIRO Atmospheric Research


Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments

Tim Carter CLA Chapter III & slides

Emilio La Rovere, Rik Leemans, Linda Mearns, ‘Naki’ Nakicenovic, Barrie Pittock, Sergei Semenov, Jim Skea, Mike Hulme


Chapter 13 wg i climate scenario development
Chapter 13 WG IClimate Scenario Development

Mearns and Hulme et al.

Distinguishes between

Climate change scenarios (representation of change from baseline)

Climate scenarios (representation of future climate)


Chapter 13 wg i climate scenario development1
Chapter 13 WG IClimate Scenario Development

Mearns and Hulme et al.

Key development of methods, for:

Representing uncertainty

High resolution information

Variability and extreme events


Socioeconomic assumptions

Emissions scenarios

Concentrations projections

Radiative forcing projections

Interactions and feedbacks

Climate projections

Sea level projections

Regional scenarios

Impacts

Chain of dependencies in global change scenarios

Source: Mearns et al., 2001



Chapter 3 wg ii developing and applying scenarios
Chapter 3 WG IIDeveloping and Applying Scenarios

Carter and La Rovere

Major developments

Features non-climatic scenarios

Characterises SRES scenarios

Recommends consistency between scenarios

Uncertainty, variability and extremes (As for Ch. 13)


Types of scenarios
Types of scenarios

  • Climate

  • Socioeconomic

  • Land-use and Land-cover Change

  • Environmental

  • Sea-level rise



Socioeconomic scenarios
Socioeconomic scenarios

  • Baseline socioeconomic vulnerability

  • Pre-climate change

  • Determine climate change impacts

  • Post-adaptation vulnerability


Land use and land cover scenarios
Land-use and land-cover scenarios

  • Food security

  • Carbon cycling

  • Current and future land-use

  • Integrated assessment models most appropriate for developing LUCC scenarios


Environmental scenarios
Environmental scenarios

  • Atmospheric carbon dioxide

  • Tropospheric ozone

  • Acidifying compounds

  • UV radiation

  • Water resources

  • Marine pollution


Sea level rise scenarios
Sea-level rise scenarios

  • Need long baseline records

  • Need to estimate relative sea level rather than absolute

  • Regional variations unknown

  • Variability important

  • Amenable to risk assessment


The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

Source: Nakićenović et al. (2000)




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