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Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from the Third Assessment Report. Roger N. Jones CSIRO Atmospheric Research. Acknowledgments. Tim Carter CLA Chapter III & slides Emilio La Rovere, Rik Leemans, Linda Mearns, ‘Naki’ Nakicenovic, Barrie Pittock, Sergei Semenov, Jim Skea, Mike Hulme.

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Developing and applying scenarios a summary from the third assessment report

Developing and Applying Scenarios: A summary from theThird Assessment Report

Roger N. Jones

CSIRO Atmospheric Research


Acknowledgments

Acknowledgments

Tim Carter CLA Chapter III & slides

Emilio La Rovere, Rik Leemans, Linda Mearns, ‘Naki’ Nakicenovic, Barrie Pittock, Sergei Semenov, Jim Skea, Mike Hulme


Chapter 13 wg i climate scenario development

Chapter 13 WG IClimate Scenario Development

Mearns and Hulme et al.

Distinguishes between

Climate change scenarios (representation of change from baseline)

Climate scenarios (representation of future climate)


Chapter 13 wg i climate scenario development1

Chapter 13 WG IClimate Scenario Development

Mearns and Hulme et al.

Key development of methods, for:

Representing uncertainty

High resolution information

Variability and extreme events


Developing and applying scenarios a summary from the third assessment report

Socioeconomic assumptions

Emissions scenarios

Concentrations projections

Radiative forcing projections

Interactions and feedbacks

Climate projections

Sea level projections

Regional scenarios

Impacts

Chain of dependencies in global change scenarios

Source: Mearns et al., 2001


Typology of extreme climate events

Typology of extreme climate events


Chapter 3 wg ii developing and applying scenarios

Chapter 3 WG IIDeveloping and Applying Scenarios

Carter and La Rovere

Major developments

Features non-climatic scenarios

Characterises SRES scenarios

Recommends consistency between scenarios

Uncertainty, variability and extremes (As for Ch. 13)


Types of scenarios

Types of scenarios

  • Climate

  • Socioeconomic

  • Land-use and Land-cover Change

  • Environmental

  • Sea-level rise


Structure of chapter 3

Structure of Chapter 3


Socioeconomic scenarios

Socioeconomic scenarios

  • Baseline socioeconomic vulnerability

  • Pre-climate change

  • Determine climate change impacts

  • Post-adaptation vulnerability


Land use and land cover scenarios

Land-use and land-cover scenarios

  • Food security

  • Carbon cycling

  • Current and future land-use

  • Integrated assessment models most appropriate for developing LUCC scenarios


Environmental scenarios

Environmental scenarios

  • Atmospheric carbon dioxide

  • Tropospheric ozone

  • Acidifying compounds

  • UV radiation

  • Water resources

  • Marine pollution


Sea level rise scenarios

Sea-level rise scenarios

  • Need long baseline records

  • Need to estimate relative sea level rather than absolute

  • Regional variations unknown

  • Variability important

  • Amenable to risk assessment


Developing and applying scenarios a summary from the third assessment report

The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

Source: Nakićenović et al. (2000)


Developing and applying scenarios a summary from the third assessment report

Projected changes in extreme climate events and impacts

Source: IPCC WG II SPM, 2001


Developing and applying scenarios a summary from the third assessment report

Projected changes in extreme climate events and impacts

Source: IPCC WG II SPM, 2001


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