Russia and eu scenarios for the future
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Russia and EU: scenarios for the future. Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). Prof. Alexander A.Dynkin. Russia is an important partner for the EU. Russia is a growing market for goods from the EU.

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Russia and EU: scenarios for the future

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Russia and eu scenarios for the future

Russia and EU: scenarios for the future

Institute of World Economy and

International Relations

(IMEMO)

Prof. Alexander A.Dynkin


Russia is an important partner for the eu

Russia is an important partner for the EU

Russia is a growing market for goods from the EU

Growth of Russian direct investments in the EU (excluding Cyprus)

  • Russia doesn’t give up high share of euro in foreign-exchange reserves (more 40%)

  • Russia builds pipelines to the EU suggesting the future growth of the EU’s economy

  • (though it might switch over to other countries and home market)

  • Russia still insists on speedily abolition of short-term visas to Schengen area that will lead to the growth of tourism to the EU.


Russia and eu scenarios for the future

Exports from the EU to Russia (2006-2012), million euro

Imports from Russia to the EU (2006-2012), million euro


Imemo forecast

IMEMO Forecast

GDP, 2009 PPP bln USD

GDP, 2009 current USD, bln

USA

EU

China

Russia

Source: «Strategic Global Forecast to 2030», IMEMO, 2011

4


Russia and eu scenarios for the future

Perception of the same facts may be optimistic or pessimistic depending on what we want to demonstrate. For example, the decline of Russian’s share in EU’s import of natural gas can be interpreted in different ways.

Russia loses its leadership in EU gas imports

Despite the crises Russia is still the leader


World oil and gas production and import

World Oil and GasProduction and Import

Oil

Gas

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013


Core areas of cooperation between russia and the eu

Core areas of cooperation between Russia and the EU

Commodity trade

Investments in technologies

Energy cooperation

Humanitarian contacts (tourism, science, culture, etc.)

However, there are both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios in each area


Commodity trade

Commodity trade

Optimistic scenario:

EU + Eurasian Union

Free trade agreement after Russian adaptation to WTO’s accession

Road map to the common Eurasian economic area

Pessimistic scenario:

EU’s expansion in Ukraine and Belarus

Trade wars between Russia and other European countries

New non-tariff trade borders across Europe


Detailed elaboration of wto s norms in mutual russia eu trade

Detailed elaboration of WTO’s norms in mutual Russia-EU trade

Customs administration and customs procedures(unification of forms and rules of the authorized operators, “one window” principle for submission of papers, “one customs”principle on the border)

Sanitary and phytosanitarymeasures (an exchange of information, unification of forms, a mutual recognition of documents)Technical regulation (joint development and acceptance of new rules and standards for products of biotechnology and some other new industries, gradual unification of operating rules and procedures)Special protective, anti-dumping and compensatory measures(unification of procedures: regulation of consultations, initiating an anti-dumping duty investigations, granting of proofs, definition of damage, regulation of responding to anti-dumping investigations, etc.)


Investments in technologies

Investments in technologies

Optimistic scenario:

Competitive EU-Russian global value chains

Modernization of Russian economy

Growth of efficiency and sustainability in the EU’s and Russian economies

Pessimistic scenario:

Only market-seeking and resource-seeking EU’s direct investments in Russia

Investment protectionism against Russian high-tech MNEs in the EU


Russia and eu scenarios for the future

Distribution of foreign assets of 20 top Russian non-financial transnational corporations by regions (USD billion, end of 2011)

The share of the EU is 39% (1st place). Main assets are in Italy, Germany, Bulgaria, etc.

The share of the CIS is 28% (2nd place), but more than 1/3of this volume is in Ukraine.

The share of the US and Canada is 17% while the share of Sub-Sahara Africa is 6%.

The share of China, Mongolia and Vietnam is 4%.


Direct investment stock 2012 mln usd

Russia

1989

123

2152

17023

China

3724

France

769

Direct investment, stock, 2012 mln USD

Source: Bank of Russia, 2013. China Statistical Yearbook 2013.


Current russia eu energy ties

  • Russia supplies 31 percent of EU gas imports,

  • 27 percent of crude oil imports,

  • 24 percent of EU coal imports,

  • 30 percent of total EU uranium imports

  • The EU is the market for 88 percent of Russia’s oil exports,

  • 70 percent of its gas exports,

  • 50 percent of its coal exports

Current Russia-EU energy ties

Significant investment cooperation in the energy field


Energy cooperation

Energy cooperation

Optimistic scenario:

Current achievements will produce a solid base for new fields of cooperation under EU/Russia Roadmap for Energy Cooperation until 2050 (signed in March 2013)

  • Energy efficiency

  • Renewables

  • Remote oil and gas fields

    exploration

  • Investments in LNG-projects

Pessimistic scenario:

Key challenges for cooperation will weigh down all opportunities

Different goals for the energy markets will lead to extreme politicization of energy issues by both sides

The lack of legal basis for Russian long-term investment projects


Humanitarian contacts

Humanitarian contacts

Optimistic scenario:

Common Eurasian higher educational and scientific areas and Pan-European

touristic boom

Various cultural contacts as a base for strategic political and economic EU-Russia partnership

Pessimistic scenario:

Visa regime against Russia and the growth of xenophobia in the EU

Significant decrease of the EU’s global competitiveness; Crisis of multiculturalism


The importance of cooperation between russian and french specialists in international relations

The importance of cooperation between Russian and French specialists in international relations

Scholars can produce more positive agenda of cooperation in comparison to politicians

Cooperation between scholars can overcome many stereotypes in EU-Russian relations

Joint policy reports will have more influence on EU and Russian officials


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