Russia and EU: scenarios for the future. Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO). Prof. Alexander A.Dynkin. Russia is an important partner for the EU. Russia is a growing market for goods from the EU.
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Russia and EU: scenarios for the future
Institute of World Economy and
Prof. Alexander A.Dynkin
Russia is a growing market for goods from the EU
Growth of Russian direct investments in the EU (excluding Cyprus)
Exports from the EU to Russia (2006-2012), million euro
Imports from Russia to the EU (2006-2012), million euro
GDP, 2009 PPP bln USD
GDP, 2009 current USD, bln
Source: «Strategic Global Forecast to 2030», IMEMO, 2011
Perception of the same facts may be optimistic or pessimistic depending on what we want to demonstrate. For example, the decline of Russian’s share in EU’s import of natural gas can be interpreted in different ways.
Russia loses its leadership in EU gas imports
Despite the crises Russia is still the leader
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013
Investments in technologies
Humanitarian contacts (tourism, science, culture, etc.)
However, there are both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios in each area
EU + Eurasian Union
Free trade agreement after Russian adaptation to WTO’s accession
Road map to the common Eurasian economic area
EU’s expansion in Ukraine and Belarus
Trade wars between Russia and other European countries
New non-tariff trade borders across Europe
Customs administration and customs procedures(unification of forms and rules of the authorized operators, “one window” principle for submission of papers, “one customs”principle on the border)
Sanitary and phytosanitarymeasures (an exchange of information, unification of forms, a mutual recognition of documents)Technical regulation (joint development and acceptance of new rules and standards for products of biotechnology and some other new industries, gradual unification of operating rules and procedures)Special protective, anti-dumping and compensatory measures(unification of procedures: regulation of consultations, initiating an anti-dumping duty investigations, granting of proofs, definition of damage, regulation of responding to anti-dumping investigations, etc.)
Competitive EU-Russian global value chains
Modernization of Russian economy
Growth of efficiency and sustainability in the EU’s and Russian economies
Only market-seeking and resource-seeking EU’s direct investments in Russia
Investment protectionism against Russian high-tech MNEs in the EU
The share of the EU is 39% (1st place). Main assets are in Italy, Germany, Bulgaria, etc.
The share of the CIS is 28% (2nd place), but more than 1/3of this volume is in Ukraine.
The share of the US and Canada is 17% while the share of Sub-Sahara Africa is 6%.
The share of China, Mongolia and Vietnam is 4%.
Source: Bank of Russia, 2013. China Statistical Yearbook 2013.
Significant investment cooperation in the energy field
Current achievements will produce a solid base for new fields of cooperation under EU/Russia Roadmap for Energy Cooperation until 2050 (signed in March 2013)
Key challenges for cooperation will weigh down all opportunities
Different goals for the energy markets will lead to extreme politicization of energy issues by both sides
The lack of legal basis for Russian long-term investment projects
Common Eurasian higher educational and scientific areas and Pan-European
Various cultural contacts as a base for strategic political and economic EU-Russia partnership
Visa regime against Russia and the growth of xenophobia in the EU
Significant decrease of the EU’s global competitiveness; Crisis of multiculturalism
Scholars can produce more positive agenda of cooperation in comparison to politicians
Cooperation between scholars can overcome many stereotypes in EU-Russian relations
Joint policy reports will have more influence on EU and Russian officials