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Current Demographic Trends and the Future of Texas

Sources of Growth . Fastest Growing States, 2000-2008. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2008. Natural Increase in Texas (Births minus Deaths). Birth Rate: 16.8 per 1,000 vs. 14.0 for US (2nd highest)Death Rate: 6.8 per 1,000 vs. 8.3 for US (5th lowest)Natural Increase: 10.0 per 1,000 vs. 5.7 for US (3rd high)Texas is young: Median Age: 33.2 vs. 36.8 for US (2nd lowest)Texas has a high total fertility rate (Children per woman) 2.34 vs. 2.05 f31295

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Current Demographic Trends and the Future of Texas

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    1. Current Demographic Trends and the Future of Texas Karl Eschbach, Ph.D. State Demographer of Texas Director, Texas State Data Center University of Texas at San Antonio Georgetown Chamber of Commerce Georgetown, TX November 11, 2009

    2. Sources of Growth

    3. Fastest Growing States, 2000-2008

    4. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2008

    5. Natural Increase in Texas (Births minus Deaths) Birth Rate: 16.8 per 1,000 vs. 14.0 for US (2nd highest) Death Rate: 6.8 per 1,000 vs. 8.3 for US (5th lowest) Natural Increase: 10.0 per 1,000 vs. 5.7 for US (3rd high) Texas is young: Median Age: 33.2 vs. 36.8 for US (2nd lowest) Texas has a high total fertility rate (Children per woman) 2.34 vs. 2.05 for US (4th highest)

    6. Natural Increase per 1,000

    7. Total Fertility Rates by State, 2006

    8. Total Fertility Rate by Ethnicity, 2000

    9. Population Change by Components of Change in the State, 1990-2000 and 2000-2008

    10. Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2008 Y:\TXSDC\Estimates\CB\2008\State\NST-EST2008-alldata.xlsx Y:\TXSDC\Estimates\CB\2008\State\NST-EST2008-alldata.xlsx

    11. Annual % Change in Texas Population and Difference Between Annual % Employment Change: for Texas-United States

    12. Percent Growth in Total Non-Farm Employment, Selected Metro Areas and Periods

    14. Nativity of Texas Children Under 5 Years Old in Relation to Mother’s Nativity

    15. Growth of the Undocumented Population 1990 - 2006

    16. Undocumented Migration to Texas

    17. Departures from the Undocumented Population

    18. Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040

    19. Population Growth in Austin-Round Rock MSA, 1980-2040 (2000-2007 Migration Scenario) Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Texas and County Population 1980 1990 2000 2008 and 2040 with 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 numeric and percent change.xlsxY:\IDSER\Presentations\Texas and County Population 1980 1990 2000 2008 and 2040 with 1980-1990 and 1990-2000 numeric and percent change.xlsx

    20. Changes in Geographic Distribution in Texas

    26. Population Change by Area, 2000-2008 Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Population Change by Area 2000-2008 (Tx Big 5).xlsxY:\IDSER\Presentations\Population Change by Area 2000-2008 (Tx Big 5).xlsx

    27. Components of Change for Austin-Round Rock MSA, 2000 to 2008 Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Texas and County Components of Change 2000-2008 with FIPS.xlsxY:\IDSER\Presentations\Texas and County Components of Change 2000-2008 with FIPS.xlsx

    28. Migration of Tax Filers, Williamson County 1998-2008

    29. Migration of Tax Filers by Year, Williamson County, 1998-2008

    30. Changes in Age Structure

    31. Age-Sex Structure of Texas, 2008 and Projected 2040 (Scenario 2000-2007) Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Population Pyramids\Texas CB 2008 and SDC 2040.xlsx Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Population Pyramids\Texas CB 2008 and SDC 2040.xlsx

    32. Y:\IDSER\Presentations\txpop2000_2008_1yr.xlsxY:\IDSER\Presentations\txpop2000_2008_1yr.xlsx

    33. Y:\IDSER\Presentations\txpop2000_2008_1yr.xlsxY:\IDSER\Presentations\txpop2000_2008_1yr.xlsx

    34. Population by Age in the State of Texas and Austin-Round Rock MSA, 2008 Source: Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Population Pyramids\MSAs\pop_pyramid_cb2008_sdc2040_MSA_Austin_RR.csvSource: Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Population Pyramids\MSAs\pop_pyramid_cb2008_sdc2040_MSA_Austin_RR.csv

    35. Ethnicity

    36. Ethnicity and Immigrant Status State of Texas, 2007

    37. Ethnic Composition of Austin-Round Rock MSA, 2007 Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Texas and County Race-Ethnicity CB 2007.xlsx Counties Summated: Bastrop,Caldwell,Hays,TravisY:\IDSER\Presentations\Texas and County Race-Ethnicity CB 2007.xlsx Counties Summated: Bastrop,Caldwell,Hays,Travis

    39. Immigrant Status by Age for Hispanics in Texas, 2007

    40. When do Hispanics pass Anglos in Texas? When do Hispanics become a majority in Texas?

    41. Projected Ethnic Change in the State of Texas, 2000-2040 Y:\IDSER\Presentations\Y:\IDSER\Presentations\

    42. Projected Percent Hispanic in Austin-Round Rock MSA Counties, 2000-2040

    43. Percentage of Texas Population by Ethnicity at Each Age, 2000

    44. Percentage of Texas Population by Ethnicity at Each Age, 2040

    45. Educational Attainment of Young Adults— What is the Future of the Texas Workforce

    46. Baby Boomers in Texas Workforce, 2006 4.3 million Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964) in Texas workforce 700,000 born before 1946 Total workforce= 11.5 million Persons born before 1964 are 43% of workforce, and 53% of college graduates in the workforce

    47. State of Texas-Educational Attainment of Adults and State Rank, 2000 and 2007

    48. United States Not Texas, Ages 18-24

    49. Hispanic Non-Citizens, Ages 18-24

    50. Anglos, Ages 18-24

    51. African Americans, Ages 18-24

    52. Hispanic Citizens, Ages 18-24

    53. Asian Americans, Ages 18-24

    54. Ethnicity/Citizenship by Age Group for Children and Young Adults 0 to 24 Years Old in Texas, 2007

    55. Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer Karl Eschbach, Ph.D. Nazrul Hoque, Ph.D. Jeff Jordan, Ph.D. Beverly Pecotte Steven White Phone 210 – 458 – 6798 Fax 210 – 458 – 6540 Website txsdc.utsa.edu

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