CLIMARES Presentation in Bergen, Norway 22.10.2009

1. WP 500 WP 500ARCTIC GOVERNANCE & GEOPOLITICSLeader: Prof. Timo Koivurova,UL / AC timo.koivurova@ulapland.fi Co-Leader: Dr. Sami Moisio, UTsami.moisio@utu.fi CLIMARES Presentation in Bergen, Norway 22.10.2009 mika.flojt@ulapland.firesearcherArctic Centre / NIEM University of Lapland FINLAND

2. Partners • International law: Prof. Timo Koivurova ( Northern Institute for Environmental and Minority Law, Arctic Centre / University of Lapland ) • AC/ NIEM: Researchers Mika Flöjt, Kamrul Hossain • Geopolitics: Docent, Dr Sami Moisio, University of Turku, Finland • Prof. Klaus Dodds, University of London. • Dr. Alan Ingram, University College of London • Dr Jason Dittmer, University College of London • + 1 PhD student, 2 research assistants

3. WP 500 • Overall objective • The main objective of WP500 is o provide an in-depth analysis of the evolving international governance and geopolitics dynamics in the Arctic, in particular for the Eurasian part of the Arctic, and suggest ways to make the development sustainable. The importance of this particular objective emerges as rapid environmental changes will affect the full range of goods and services provided by the oceans for which measures could be developed to mitigate and adapt to the changes. • Specific Objectives The following specific objectives: • (1) to focus on international legal processes and institution building (Governance) • (2) to look into the issues of territorialisation of Arctic marine areas and issues related to militarization/demilitarization (Geopolitics). • (3) to carefully scrutinize how the processes and discourses of security, cooperation, contest and cooperation are intertwined in the Arctic maritime areas (governance and geopolitics).

4. International law and geopolitics have their own scientific-intellectual paradigms, and thus provide different views on Arctic marine governance, how it is unfolding and how it should be developed. • International law and the state system have grown into each other, and mutually reinforce each other. Marine areas in general are densely regulated by a vast number of international treaties related to various ocean uses. • The law of the sea (UNCLOS) regulates almost all aspects of ocean use, and is generally recognised to be an important influence on state behaviour.

5. Background • Arctic marine areas have received a considerable amount of media and policy-orientated attention in the recent times. Mostly this has related to the continental shelf claims made by the Arctic Ocean coastal states, especially that by the Russian Federation following their submission to the CLCS in 2001, covering almost half of the Arctic Ocean sea-bed and reinforced in 2007 by Russian submarines planting their flag on the central Arctic Ocean seabed. • Some scholars argue that with the melting sea ice, there is a race (or even ‘scramble’) between the five Arctic Ocean coastal states for offshore resources, whereas another set of scholars perceive continental shelf related developments as an orderly process. • The WP 500 seeks to approach this process from two angles. Those interested in Arctic governance will focus on international legal processes and institution building. • The geopolitics group, for its part, looks at the issue of territorialisation of Arctic marine areas and issues related to militarization/demilitarization. It will also carefully scrutinize how the processes and discourses of security, cooperation, contest and cooperation are intertwined in the Arctic maritime areas.

6. Framework of Arctic governance • Overview of the structures of governance in the Arctic • Arctic Council 8 + 6 PP. (1996) • Coastal states (5) ” Ilulissat declaration” 2008 • Special cases: Hans Island, The Svalvard Treaty etc. • Different maritime zones of coastal states (territorial sea, EEZ, continental shelf, (UNCLOS)) • International sea areas (high seas, deep sea-bed) • Northern Sea Routes: North-West Passage etc. • Politics: energy, military, resources, economics, fisheries etc.

9. Arctic Council Stucture(source arctic council)

10. Changes in Arctic

14. Geopolitics • Geopolitics, as an intellectual field, has traditionally concentrated attention on the role of geographical and environmental factors in shaping international politics. New analytical approaches increasingly focus on the dynamic interactions between political actors, the projection of power over space, and geographic environments. • This involves attention to, first, how different actors frame geopolitical realities (e.g. in images of the maritime Arctic as a ‘frozen desert’, a zone of resource competition, or a ‘northern Mediterranean’, a security issue, or a zone of potential cooperation); • second, the strategies they deploy around these framings (e.g. military deployments or efforts to promote national identity); and third, how the strategies of different actors unfold and interact to produce particular geographical outcomes and arrangements.

15. Geopolitics working plan • Work within the geopolitics section of the WP will be broken up into three interconnected strands of research.  • The first, “Arctic geopolitics: institutions, interests and strategies', will be based at Royal Holloway, University of London (RHUL) under the supervision of Prof. Klaus Dodds. • This research will focus on state-level activities, particularly the intersection of geopolitical agendas with governance issues.  This research will be driven by discourse analysis of policy documents, public statements, and records of debate within venues such as the Arctic Council.

16. The second, “Arctic geopolitics: sustainability, democracy and communities”, will be based at University College London (UCL) and run jointly by Drs. Alan Ingram and Jason Dittmer.  • This research will serve as a foil to the state-led narrative of Arctic geopolitics by investigating the political, social, and economic impacts of Arctic securitization on users of Arctic Ocean spaces, including those working in industries such as transportation and resource extraction, as well as indigenous peoples.  • This research will utilize interviews and ethnography in the field as a means of engaging with users of Arctic ocean space. 

17. Finally, the third strand of research will be led by Dr. Sami Moisio at the University of Turku (UoT), and will focus on the generation of scenarios in conjunction with the governance group.  This research will utilize well-established methods of scenario generation as utilized in International Relations and elsewhere.  • Dr. Alan Ingram (UCL) would also serve as coordinator of the three research strands, ensuring that data and analysis generated by each unit is conceptually interoperable with the others.

18. Yet, international law has several limitations in studies of international circumstances. • First and foremost, it is built on an excessively state-centric world-view, which is even more pronounced in marine areas. In other words, non-state organizations and regional organizations such as EU are comparatively neglected. • Second, since the discipline has as its aim to examine the normative reality, it cannot really explain relevant behaviour but only attribute it to nation-states and presume that states observe international rules. • Geopolitics has an important role here. It can examine the messiness of international circumstances (clarifying who the actors are, why they behave the way they do and how they seek to justify this) and can thus complement the state-centric normative perspectives of international law. Recent work in geopolitics ranges well beyond state and economic interests, stressing the role of wider political, media and popular culture and everyday life in geopolitical dynamics. • In this sense, the two disciplines certainly complement each other. Interdisciplinary interaction within the WP will facilitate more nuanced accounts of how things unfold in Arctic marine areas.

19. Tentative tasks: WP 500 • Task 1: • Detailed planning of the WP • Governance baseline. • Geopolitics baseline. • Task 2: • Recent Developments in Governance and Geopolitics. • Legitimization of actions by different actors. • Interplay of conflict and cooperation. • Task 3 • Scenarios for the future Arctic governance. • Building up scenarios for the Arctic geopolitics. • Evaluation of these scenarios and their connectedness with task 1 and task 2. • Task 4 • Production of reports • Reviews by the project participants • Preparation of articles for peer-reviewed journals

20. Tentative Deliverables: WP500 • In put: A kick-off meeting, preparing a report on overview, implementation, structure of the WP 500 and its coherence with the broad them of the project proposal. Out put: a brief report (5-10 pages). Time of delivery: month 3 • In put: Research on task 1. Out put: Background papers (15-20 pages combined report of both Governance and Geopolitics sub-groups). Time of delivery: month 9 In put: Research on task 2, empirical investigations and internal seminar (physical or telephone). Out put: Report (a combined report containing 20-30 pages). Time of delivery: month 20. In put: Research on task 3, production of texts. Out put: Report (a combined one approximately of 30 pages) Time of Delivery: Month 30 • In put: Article preparation from the texts produced during the previous stages and reviews. Out put: Articles to be submitted in the peer-reviewed journals. Time of Delivery: month 36.

21. Sources • Arctic Council http://www.arctic-council.org • European Environmental Agency 2007 • AMAP http://www.amap.no • WP 500 CLIMARES Draft