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Prospects of the Russian Economy and Finances and their Role in the Global Economy Перспективы российской экономики и финансовой системы и их роль в глобальной экономике Triangle Club International Moscow, November 20, 2012. Arnaud Leclercq Partner, Lombard Odier Capital Partners.

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Prospects of the Russian Economy and Finances and their Role in the Global EconomyПерспективы российской экономики и финансовой системы и их роль в глобальной экономике Triangle Club InternationalMoscow, November 20, 2012

Arnaud Leclercq

Partner, Lombard Odier Capital Partners

2013 2014
ПРОДЛЕНИЕ ЧЛЕНСТВА В КЛУБЕ 2013-2014

Клуб Триалог предоставляет действующим членам скидку в размере 10 % на продление членства в 2013-2014 гг. в случае, если взнос будет оплачен до 30 ноября 2012 г.:

extend your club membership for 2013 2014
EXTEND YOUR CLUB MEMBERSHIP FOR 2013-2014

The Trialogue Club will be happy to grant its members who decided to extend their membership for 2013-2014 with a 10% discount for the annual membership fee in case the payment will be made before November 30th

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Prospects of the Russian Economy and Finances and their Role in the Global EconomyПерспективы российской экономики и финансовой системы и их роль в глобальной экономике Triangle Club InternationalMoscow, November 20, 2012

Arnaud Leclercq

Partner, Lombard Odier Capital Partners

russian economy is now recovering from 2008 2009
Russian economy is now recovering from 2008-2009

Quick overlook on major economic aspects:

  • Growth

Growth was above 4.5% last two years and should be above 3.8% this year

  • Budget

Last 12 years: mushrooming expenditures fuelled by 388% increase of oil prices between 2000 & 2008.

By 2015, Russia might face a current account deficit

  • Employment

Unemployment went down to 5.2% in August 2012, which is historically low.

Increase of social expenditures had positive results.

  • Inflation & competitiveness

Increase of social expenditures did not create inflation. In fact, it’s decreasing since 2008 and stabilised at 6.5%.

  • International trade

During the first months of 2012, the trade surplus declined

In 2013 & 2014, Russia will face the economic slowdown of its main economic partners.

  • Financial sector

From June 2011 until June 2012, MinFin and CB have in fact financed 40% of the volume of credit increase.

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three aspects are creating some uncertainty for the near future
Three aspects are creating some uncertainty for the near future:
  • Russia’s budget is still extremely vulnerable to oil price swings
  • General economic slowdown in the world.
  • Impact of shale gas resource

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012

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investment climate should be improved
Investment climate should be improved

Economy is growing 3.8% - Capital outflows are still high

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russia the euro crisis
RUSSIA & THE EURO CRISIS

October 25 President V. Putin at the Valdai Club:

“EU is not a true Federalism and has all inconvenient without the advantages”

Russian authorities have contrarian views:

  • Support the construction of the EU (MID)
  • Criticism of the Eurozone (Kremlin)

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russia a eurasian alternative centre of economic power
Russia, a Eurasian alternative centre of economic power
  • In its History, Russian has never been as strong as when it accepted to look East
  • Its relations with the West were an accumulation of wars, misunderstandings, humiliations
  • The true disconnection between the West and Russia is recent
  • Conversely, every time Russia based its equilibrium and strength on Asia and Eurasia, it succeeded in a much easier way
  • Recent partnerships with the East are doing well and remain promising

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recent partnerships with the east remain promising
Recent partnerships with the East remain promising
  • New pipelines to Japan and Korea
  • New silk road
  • Arctic oil & gas reserves
  • Good relationships with Central Asia States and India
  • Diplomatic warmth with Japan
  • All frontiers issues with China now solved

By all means, Russia has to assume its Eurasian identity

Developing countries start to cooperate directly between one another

Russia can be more than a facilitator between the West and the East

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