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Presents 2005 IMTC Forum

Presents 2005 IMTC Forum. On the Verge of Disruption. Brough Turner NMS Communications. VoIP Disruption Underway. BUT just digital POTS* * Plain Old Telephone Service. Actually Disruptive. Skype. Disruptive differences It just works! (solves the whole problem) Free

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Presents 2005 IMTC Forum

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  1. Presents 2005 IMTC Forum

  2. On the Verge of Disruption Brough Turner NMS Communications

  3. VoIP Disruption Underway BUTjust digital POTS* * Plain Old Telephone Service IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  4. Actually Disruptive IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  5. Skype • Disruptive differences • It just works! (solves the whole problem) • Free • Sounds better (wideband audio) • Presence (instant messaging interface) • Now Largest VoIP service in world • In < 18 months • But disruption awaited adequate bandwidth IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  6. Video Telephony • Doesn’t “just work” • Call establishment issues • Firewall and NAT problems • Application not compelling • Users seek audio first,then documents & presentations • Video distant third • Quality – a work in progress IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  7. Technology Advancing • Bandwidth improving • Traffic growing 40%–100% per year at flat or declining costs • Ever improving coders (e.g. H.264) • Adequate bandwidth was needed for VoIP disruption • Video quality & performance better every year IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  8. Room Conferencing Quality Haptic VR? 3D holographic virtual presence Realism Immersive video H.264 over IP H.261 on ISDN Improving, but not disruptive IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  9. Desktop Video • Many USB WebCams sold • Yahoo & AOL offer presence • Room conferencing warmed over • Firewall & NAT issues substantial Yahoo! Messenger Similar, not disruptive AOL Instant Messenger IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  10. Mobility • Always on, always connected, anywhere • Fundamental new capability • Also improved call establishment • “See what I see” • Fundamentally new application !!! • And, it just works over 3G-324M, or over IP (e.g. Nokia 6680 demo at 3GSM) • Synergy • Mobile video + IP video helps drive awareness IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  11. Mobility: Battery Life & Size 3G324M Mobility 3D holographic virtual presence Immersive video Room Conferencing Realism IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  12. Mobile Content • “Content” is not king • Telephone revenues (and profits) dwarf those of film, TV and print media combined • Person-to-person is what counts • But user-created content is significant and • Users favor photos and video recordings • < 100K garage bands • Many 100M amateur photographers IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  13. The Long Tail Body Long Tail Volume ~ ~ Business 6 Billion IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  14. The Long Tail • 57% of books sold not among top 130,000 • 900K titles: > 99% streamed every month IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  15. The Long, Long Tail • User-created content • Person-to-person connections • Nokia LifeBlog • http://www.nokia.com/lifeblog/ • Google Video hosting • https://upload.video.google.com/ IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  16. Awaiting disruption Broadcasting “See what I see” Telephony Multimedia Communications Delayed Movies Photos, Videos Email / Blogs Real Time Person to Person User Defined Professional Content IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  17. Dramatic Change Ahead ? • Past 15 years of video telephony disappointing • Incremental enhancements not exciting But today, or in very near future: • Mobility • Wireless Internet access • Camera phones and user content services • Photos, videos, “See-what-I-see” • Presence IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  18. Opportunity • Internet plus mobile phones drive growing economic, social and political benefits • Exponential growth in underlying technologies • 6B people, 1.7B mobiles, near 0 video • Disruptive multimedia application could spread to most mobile devices within a decade Enormous opportunity ahead ! IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

  19. Thank You Brough Turner rbt@nmss.com IMTC Forum – May 2005 – Eibsee, Germany

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