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Wood availability in Germany and Europe Status and Trends

Wood availability in Germany and Europe Status and Trends. Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ 16. September 2010 Speaker: Dr. Hubert Röder. Content. Pöyry in brief Current availability of wood Conclusions

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Wood availability in Germany and Europe Status and Trends

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  1. Wood availability in Germany and Europe Status and Trends Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ 16. September 2010 Speaker: Dr. Hubert Röder

  2. Content Pöyry in brief Current availability of wood Conclusions Measures to increase wood availability Recommendations Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  3. 1. Pöyry in brief

  4. Global experts in consulting and engineering • Pöyry is a global consulting and engineering company dedicated to balanced sustainability • 7000 experts in about 50 countries • Project experience in more than 100 countries • 17 000 projects annually • Net sales in 2009 EUR 674 million • Listed on the NASDAQ OMX Helsinki since 1997 Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  5. Our vision The global thought leader in engineering balanced sustainability for a complex world Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  6. Wide range of deep expertise • Urban planning • Real estate development • Transport planning • Rail infrastructure • Road infrastructure • Construction management • Building design • Water supply and sanitation • Water resources management • Geosciences • Environmental services • Environmental consulting • Renewable energy • Hydropower • Thermal power • Oil and gas • Nuclear energy • Transmission & distribution • Forest Industry • Pulp and paper • Chemicals • Biofuels • Biorefining Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  7. 2. Wood availability

  8. Global availability of wood Wood availability is more or less stable in Central Europe. Regions with increasing availability of wood (e.g. for Exports to Europe) are Russia, US South, South America and Africa. Short term availability is also high in Canada due to bark beetle desease. Increasing wood availability Stable/decreasing wood availability Wood deficit areas Quelle: Pöyry Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  9. Current European Wood Flows Already today a significant part of the wood resource is used in energy production. Wood Resource ~485 million m3 • Recovered • Imports 27% I N P U T 73% Fuel Wood Sawn Wood Wood panels Fibre / Pulp Power Heat By-Products and Residues Paper, Board O U T P U T 41% 59% EU-27 Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  10. Biomass targets in Europe 2010 - 2020 All European member states are planning increased utilisation of biomass* for renewable energy. * Source: National Renewable Energy Action Plans, 2010, ECN summary Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  11. Biomass targets in Europe 2010 - 2020 UK, Italy and Ireland are the countries with the most ambitious plans for the utilization of biomass for energy. * Source: National Renewable Energy Action Plans, 2010 Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  12. Operational facilities Planned facilities Planned facilities (S36/local consent granted) 2016 2014 2013 2015 2006 2007 2010 2008 2012 2009 2011 Case Example UK: Bioenergy Players If most of the large-scale projects planned in the UK are successfully completed, an additional 3GW of biomass-based energy capacity will be created by 2016. This is likely to create a demand for in excess of 25 million gmt of biomass. Forth Energy (Grangemouth) 100MW RWE (Stallingborough) 65MW Drax (Immingham) 300MW Anglesey Aluminium (Holyhead) 300MW Forth Energy (Rosyth) 100MW Drax (Selby) 300MW Express Power (Tilbury) 60MW UPM (Shotton) 20MW Helius (Bristol) 100MW Prenergy (Port Talbot) 350MW Drax (Hull) 300MW Forth Energy (Leith) 100MW Ayrshire Power (Hunterston) 240MW Sembcorp (Wilton) 30MW Drax (Selby Co-firing) 500MW Forth Energy (Dundee) 100MW UPM (Caledonian) 26MW MGT Power (Teesside) 300MW MGT Power (Tyneside) 300MW E.ON (Lockerbie) 44MW E.ON (Bristol) 150MW Welsh Power (Newport) 49MW Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  13. Case Example UK: Supply Surplus Development Waste wood and harvesting residues are the only biomass assortments in the UK, which still offer a good supply surplus. Bioenergy players will mainly target these assortments (aditional to oversea imports) and most of the current surplus will be consumed by 2022. Source: Pöyry Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  14. Supply Potential increase Total assumed Gap Estimated Energy Industry (incl. imports) supply Demand Biomass balance in Europe 2020 The estimated woody biomass supply gap in Europe will be > 200 Mio. m³/a in 2020*. Still important NREAPs are missing for final calculation (e.g. PL, CZ, …) Estimated Demand 2020 Gap Million m 3 740 - 820 340 - 420 Estimated Supply 2020 > 200 ??? 150 - 160 520 - 560 370 - 400 Additional ~400 Energy Supply Demand Potential Current Forest Biomass Supply Traditional Demand Pulp, Panels, Solid Wood.. * Source: EU Renewable Energy Roadmap, Pöyry & McKinsey analysis, CEPI Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  15. Case Example Germany: Renewable Energy investments Others Small Hydro Large Hydro Biogas Biowaste Renewables Kapazitäten (GW) Biomass Offshore Wind Onshore Wind BAU 20101) BAU 2010-20202) Delta zur Zielerreichung3) Delta to acheive targets • BAU (Business as Usual) 2010: Renewables-Kapazität bis 2010, abgedeckt über bestehende/weiterentwickelte Fördermechanismen • BAU (Business as Usual) 2020: Zusätzliche Renewables-Kapazität bis 2020, abgedeckt über bestehende/weiterentwickelte Fördermechanismen • Delta zur Zielerreichung 2020: Renewables-Kapazität bis 2020 unter der Annahme eines Handelsmarktes in der EU 27 Quelle: Pöyry Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010 Focus of renewable Energy investments until 2010 have been in onshore wind power. Planned investments until 2020 concentrate on offshore wind power. Pending projects have a focus in Biomass (mainly wood).

  16. DK PL NL B CZ F * Potenzial in m³/ha Gesamtfläche Wald + Nichtwald A CH Wood availability in Germany Softwood Potentials 2008-2012 All Softwood potentials are currently utilized. Additional increase of Softwood availabilty are limited using current management regimes. WEHAM Mio. m³ Basisszenario Szenario F Potenzial Nadelindustrieholz 5,9 6,7 ./. Hausbrand 1,0 1,0 ./. Biomasseheizkraftwerke 0,2 0,2 ./. Papier- und Zellstoffwerke 5,3 5,3 ./. Holzwerkstoffindustrie 3,6 3,6 Defizit Potenzial -4,2 -3,4 Rohstoffbedarfe Nd-IL [Tsd. m³] Grau: Nachbarländer Verbleibendes Potenzial (m³/ha)* Quelle: Pöyry Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  17. DK Potenzial Laubindustrieholz 13,3 Mio. m³ ./. Hausbrand 2,3 Mio. m³ ./. Biomasseheizkraftwerke 0,4 Mio. m³ 3,2 Mio. m³ ./. Holzwerkstoffindustrie 1,4 Mio. m³ ./. Papier-/Zellstoffindustrie PL Rest Potenzial 6,0 Mio. m³ NL B CZ F * Potenzial in m³/ha Gesamtfläche Wald + Nichtwald A CH Wood availability in Germany Hardwood Potentials 2008-2012 There are regional potentials to increase the availability of Hardwood. Rohstoffbedarfe an Lb-IL [Tsd. m³] Grau: Standorte in Nachbarländern Verbleibendes Potenzial (m³/ha)* Quelle: Pöyry Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  18. DK PL NL B CZ F * jährlicher Brennstoffbedarf ** Potenzial in m³/ha Gesamtfläche Wald + Nichtwald A CH Wood availability in Germany Forest residues Potentials 2008-2012 Forest residues have the highest potential for increased utilization. Establishment of tailored supply chains has already started with different intensity depending on regions and ownership structures. Potenzial Waldrestholz 30,4 Mio. m³/a ./. Hausbrand 1,7 Mio. m³/a ./. BMHKW < 50 Tsd. t/a* 0,6 Mio. m³/a ./. BMHKW > 50 Tsd. t/a 2,4 Mio. m³/a Rest Potenzial 25,7 Mio. m³/a Biomasseheiz(kraft)werke > 50 Tsd. t Jahresbedarf Waldrestholzbedarfe in Tsd. m³ Verbleibendes Waldrestholz-Potenzial (m³/ha)** Anlagen auf Basis von Gebrauchtholz 50 - 99 Tsd. t  100 Tsd. t Quelle: Pöyry Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  19. Wood availability in Germany Estimations result in a wood deficit of approx. 32 Mio. m³ in 2020. Without taking 2nd generation biofuels into account, the deficit would be approx. 20 Mio. m³. Quelle: Verändert nach Thrän, D., et al. Deutsches Biomasse ForschungsZentrum, S.252 (2009) Biomassekonkurrenzen www.dbfz.de Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  20. Wood availability in Germany Key driver for the allocation of woody biomass will be the paying capabilities of the industries (pulp/paper/panels vs. energy). Increasing costs for energy will strengthen the paying capability for energetic use and parallel decrease the paying capability for industrial use. • Pöyry Modell der Zahlungsfähigkeit für Industrie-/Energieholz • [Illustratives Modell] Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  21. Wood price development Szenario 1: Development of wood supply and price 2010 - 2020: Increased demand of woody biomass for energy and industry results in a higher supply. Investments are realized and price increases. Price 2020 2010 Cumulative Volume Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  22. Wood price development Szenario 2: Development of wood supply and price 2010 - 2020: Increased demand of woody biomass for energy and industry does not result in substantial higher supply. Investments are not realized and price stagnates. Price 2010/ 2020 Cumulative Volume Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  23. Summary of wood availability Summary • Global economic crisis has reduced the demand of industrial wood only for a short term. Energy wood demand has increased steadily. • Increased demand for industrial and energy wood will lead to a supply gap in Germany and Europe • Possibilities for the increase of wood availability: • Increased utilization of forest residues (added value for forest owners and forest service companies) • Improved harvesting regimes to tackle climate change • Establishment of energy crops in agriculture • Avoid further restrictions in forest utilization Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  24. Examples for increased wood availability

  25. Examples to increase wood availability Mobilisation of harvesting reserves would result in substantial increase of wood availability. Harvesting potentials in Germany Quelle: Mantau: Holz als Energieträger, DFWR-Workshop „Bioenergie – Holz als Energieträger“, 2006; Annahmen: Pöyry Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  26. Examples to increase wood availability Integration of forest residue harvesting in the industrial wood supply chain. Storage Chipping & Loading Forwarding Felling Storage Transport Quelle: VTT Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  27. Examples to increase wood availability Mapping of sensible forest stand should avoid negative impacts on nutrients availability in the forest stands. Quelle: Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010 Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  28. Examples to increase wood availability Intensivied thinnings result in higher potentials Quelle: Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010 Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  29. Examples to increase wood availability Typical harvesting regimes concentrate on traditional concepts Quelle: Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010 Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  30. Examples to increase wood availability Additional harvesting of „indifferent“ trees. Quelle: Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010 Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  31. Examples to increase wood availability Result of intensivied thinnings (~+30 % volume). Ergebnis der Maßnahme Quelle: Verändert nach Prof. Jürgen Bauhus, Universität Freiburg, Vortrag Winterkolloquium Freiburg 2010 Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  32. Examples to increase wood availability Indicative calculation of IRR of forest investments (example spruce stands) Spruce stands can be a attractive capital allocation. Additionally risks of climatic change are tackeled and mixed standes can be funded. Internal rate of return (€/ha*a) after interests Quelle: Beinhofer u. Knoke. AFZ/Der Wald 2/2007. Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  33. Conclusion Tackling climate change and added value from forests by utililzation of an extended resource base in Europe! Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

  34. Dr. Hubert Röder Pöyry Forest Industry Consulting Tel: +49 8161 4806 85 Email: hubert.roeder@poyry.com Scientific Seminar „Biomass from Forests and Other Wooded Lands - Production and Use -“ TU Dresden, 16.09.2010

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