Projection of world socio economic and industrial activities for aim enduse global
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Projection of World Socio-economic and Industrial Activities for AIM/Enduse[Global]. Osamu Akashi (Kyoto University) The 13th AIM International Workshop 16-18, February 2008 @NIES, Tsukuba, Japan. Outline of AIM Enduse[Global]. Expansion of Enduse[Country] to cover world

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Projection of world socio economic and industrial activities for aim enduse global

Projection of World Socio-economic and Industrial Activities for AIM/Enduse[Global]

Osamu Akashi (Kyoto University)

The 13th AIM International Workshop

16-18, February 2008

@NIES, Tsukuba, Japan


Outline of aim enduse global
Outline of AIM Enduse[Global] for AIM/Enduse[Global]

  • Expansion of Enduse[Country] to cover world

  • Target regions: 23 world regions

    (Japan, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Thailand, Other South-east Asia, Other South Asia, Middle East, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, USA, EU-15 in Western Europe, EU-10 in Eastern Europe, Russia, Argentine, Brazil, Mexico, Other Latin America, South Africa, Other Africa, Rest of World)

  • Time horizon: mid-long term (~2030, ~2050)

  • Bottom-up type model

  • Simulate GHG emissions under given energy service demand such as production of steel, transport volume, space heating, etc.


Overall framework of enduse global

International trade model for AIM/Enduse[Global]

Overall framework of Enduse[Global]

World trade balanceequation

23 region

International priceDomestic price

ProductionExport, Import

Macro economic indicators

Production function

Consumption function

Export and import function

Socio-economicmacro frame model

Production of tradable commodity

Macro economic indicators

Populationscenario

Enduse model

Energy Service Demand

Residential Sector

Service Sector

Transport Sector

Industrial Sector

Energy service demand model

( Transportation, Space heating etc)

Technology DB

Final Energy Demand

・Initial cost

・Energy consumption per operation・Service supply per operation・etc

Transformation Sector

GHG emission


Outline of socio economic macro frame model
Outline of socio-economic for AIM/Enduse[Global]macro frame model

  • Macroeconomic model which estimates macro economic indicators such as GDP, final consumption expenditure, capital formation, value added of 3 sectors

  • Supply-side model (GDP is estimated from capital stock and labor force)

  • Input is population

  • 27 equations for each region

  • Parameters are estimated by econometric approach (historical data is used to estimate parameters)


Structure of socio economic macro frame model
Structure of socio-economic for AIM/Enduse[Global]macro frame model

Population(age: 15-64)

Capital Stock

Gross capital formation

Labor force

GDP

Time trend

Value added of agriculture, industry and service

Private final consumption expenditure

Endogenous

variable

Exogenous

variable


Model performance test

MAPE = for AIM/Enduse[Global]Ye: estimated value, Yr: reported value

Model performance test

  • Dynamic simulation (1960 – 2005)

  • Comparing simulated value with reported value

  • Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE*) are used as index

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)


Simulation result (1) for AIM/Enduse[Global]

  • Simulation 2000 - 2050

  • Medium population of World population prospects (UN, 2006) are used as population scenario

World GDP

  • Annual GDP growth rate of the world is projected to be 2.8%/yearduring 2000 - 2050

  • It’s very similar to B2 of SRES scenario


Simulation result (2) for AIM/Enduse[Global]

Annual GDP growth rate (2000-2050) of regions


Framework of enduse global

International trade model [steel] for AIM/Enduse[Global]

Framework of Enduse[Global]

World trade balanceequation

23 region

International priceDomestic price

ProductionExport, Import

Macro economic indicators

Production function

Consumption function

Export and import function

Socio-economicmacro frame model

Production of steel

Macro economic indicators

Populationscenario

Enduse model

Energy Service Demand

Residential Sector

Service Sector

Transport Sector

Industrial Sector

Energy service demand model

( Transportation, Space heating etc)

Technology DB

Final Energy Demand

・Initial cost

・Energy consumption per operation・Service supply per operation・etc

Transformation Sector

GHG emission


Why international trade model steel is needed
Why international trade for AIM/Enduse[Global]model [steel] is needed ?

  • Steel is internationally traded

    (Amount of Internationally traded steel is 32 % of world steel production in 2005)

  • Production of steel in each region depends not only consumption but also export and import

    (Production = Consumption + export - import)

  • Export and import of steel are needed to be modeled to project future steel production


Outline of international trade model
Outline of international trade model for AIM/Enduse[Global]

  • Partial equilibrium model

  • Domestic market and international market reach equilibrium with steel price as intervening parameter

  • Input is value added of industry of 23 regions

  • Main outputs are production, consumption, export and import of steel for 23 regions

  • 323 equations

  • Parameters are estimated by econometric approach

    (historical data is used to estimate parameters)


Structure of int trade model
Structure of int. trade model for AIM/Enduse[Global]

Domestic market equilibrium:  Consumptioni = Productioni-Exporti+Importi

i: region

World market equilibrium:   Exporti=  Importi


Model performance test1

MAPE = for AIM/Enduse[Global]Ye: estimated value , Yr: reported value

Model performance test

  • Dynamic simulation (1993 – 2005)

  • Comparing simulated value with reported value

  • Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) are used as indicator


Simulation result
Simulation result for AIM/Enduse[Global]

  • Simulation from 2005 to 2050

Steel production (mil. ton)


Remaining task
Remaining Task for AIM/Enduse[Global]

  • Comparing simulated result of GDP and steel production with other research

  • Development of other industries model

    (Cement, Paper and pulp, Petrochemical industry )

  • Run Enduse[global] model using those result as input


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