Frbsf university symposium
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FRBSF University Symposium. Board of Governors Governor Frederic S. Mishkin Gene Mitchell Kristie Bush Stephanie Johnston Daniel Roe. LEI Comparisons. Forecasted GDP Growth (FRBSF): 2.5% - 2.75% constant growth rate for Q4 2006 and 2007. LEI –Conference Board MonthLEIDifference

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FRBSF University Symposium

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Frbsf university symposium

FRBSF University Symposium

  • Board of Governors

  • Governor Frederic S. Mishkin

  • Gene Mitchell

  • Kristie Bush

  • Stephanie Johnston

  • Daniel Roe


Lei comparisons

LEI Comparisons

  • Forecasted GDP Growth (FRBSF):

  • 2.5% - 2.75% constant growth rate for Q4 2006 and 2007.

  • LEI –Conference Board

  • MonthLEIDifference

  • July 06 138.1

  • Aug 06 137.6 -0.5

  • Sept 06 137.7 0.1

  • Oct 06 138.3 0.6


Expectations

Expectations

  • Expectations of the future environment (prices) will direct current behavior. And current behavior will determine the future environment.

  • Price Stability will lead to higher real economic growth, “sustainability” of the economy, and lower risk.

  • We believe that the current posture is communicating an environment of accepted inflation (price instability) to keep the economy expanding.


Action recommendations

Action Recommendations

  • Increase rates to achieve price stability.

  • Communicate that price stability is the key to real economic growth and is the primary goal of monetary policy.

  • As the rate becomes neutral, allow the economy to fluctuate in the short term and continue to expand the money supply to accommodate growth, but not to have it be a primary cause.


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