The Role of High-Performance Computing in Industry: Customer Perspectives and Market Analysis. Prepared for: NSA Prepared by: Debra Goldfarb Vice President, Workstations and High-Performance Systems December 7, 1998.
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Prepared for: NSA
Prepared by: Debra Goldfarb
Vice President, Workstations and High-Performance Systems
December 7, 1998
“The high performance computing industry in the United States today appears to be almost as if someone hit the pause button. We’re seeing a reduction in innovation at the processor level and a tendency to follow a single manufacturer or Intel. If we lose this advanced HPC platform we stand on, innovation begins to slow down.”
“It is absolutely unthinkable that the U.S. should give up its leadership of HPC. Innovation and technology leadership are what U.S. industry is famous for. We’re the innovators. We’re the leaders. Our HPC technology leadership helps drive our IT industry leadership. It’s enabling other industries to be competitive and to let something like this go, it just doesn’t make any sense …”
“You can’t buy your infrastructure from someone else. You really have to own it—create it… It’s got to be protected… What if all your medicine came from another country, or all of your food came from another country? Or how about this question...What if all your oil was coming from another country--and then all of a sudden they decided that the prices were too cheap--so that they would have to reduce supplies to increase price. I would hope our politicians would know the answers to those questions. Aren’t those pretty obvious? You’ve got to own some of your future.”
HPC Industry in Crisis
HPC Linked to Global Competitive Position
The value of HPC in analyzing compounds is very dramatic. It would cost about $50,000 per compound to analyze in a lab. Computationally, we can do it for about $3,000. Turnaround time in a lab is about nine months; on a computer, it is less than one week.
If you can advance a drilling date for a pipeline connection by days, and then look at the impact of that change on the capital investment curve, it can be huge. Changing the slope of that curve by a few percent, over a 10-20-year period will have a tremendous dollar impact on us. Reducing cycle time is one of the key business drivers for us.
Product Development Process Perspectives and Market Analysis
Time to MarketHPC’s Key Impact Reduction in Time to Market
“Current Science/Eng. Problems Need More!”
“We’ve been actually fairly saddened by the fact that there hasn’t been much done in the last few years with the high-end. The high-end is drying up. It’s unfortunate. The biggest barrier to the high-end of the market from our perspective is that they’re simply not available. That’s the biggest barrier. We can’t buy a machine with enough power. Cost would of course be a consideration, but we would evaluate the cost based on the power of the machine and what it could do for us.”(Automotive)
“Vehicle synthesis, multi-system simulations — where you have multiple links and interdependencies to systems. We would use this for optimization as well as exploratory problems where we are trying to push new limits.” (Automotive)
“10X would allow us to make fifty million compounds accessible; that is to compute them, store them, etc. That’s four times what’s previously known. So that’s interesting but it’s not as interesting as forty times or fifty times. 40X would allow you to ask and answer a lot of questions about this molecular diversity.”(Pharmaceutical)
“If Japanese manufacturers maintain their investment in supercomputers, given the trade sanctions imposed today, we will suffer economically.”
Significant threat to U.S. technology leadership
HPC Impact: Drives U.S.
“Loss of leadership in basic HPC tools and infrastructure would be disastrous. How can we even think of losing our advanced technology advantage.”
The current HPC market situation threatens to disturb and potentially damage the ability of U.S. companies to continue to leverage capability computing and therefore maintain their competitive position in key global industries.
The capability market is:
Lower capability Perspectives and Market Analysis
keeps cost high
demand growth flat
Reduces capability market
High capability market entrycost reducesROI appealof market
poor ROI in
Capacity market return becomesmore appealing
Capacity computing cost drops, increasing demandHPC Industry Dynamics
The capability segment represents approximately 1% of units
and between 17–25% of revenues.
HPMR Perspectives and Market AnalysisHPMR: Gaining Market Share
Rest of Market
2002 Perspectives and Market Analysis
$8.9BWorldwide Technical Market Forecast: Type Share of Revenues 1997 and 2002
A rule of thumb in this industry: